Wednesday, May 16, 2007

Opening Day

Welcome to my new blog. Not exactly like opening day at Tiger Stadium, ooops Comerica Park, but lets pretend there are balloons, clowns, streamers, the works.... hey, lets basically do like Wall St. does every day. I am new to this so please bear with me. I am learing this blogging thing as I go so any input would be greatly appreciated. I have not decided if I am going to post on a regular interval, but what I will do is post here each time I come across something of interest that I think by sharing might help some folks out. As the famous quote goes those who don't learn form history and doomed to repeat it.

Okay, here we go. For starters there is no need to chronicle the homies' woes, you'd have to be living under a rock to not know, not that there is anything wrong with livin' under a rock. But just in case you are, Aaron Krowne over at mtg lender implode-o-meter does a great job chronicling the escapades of the sector. No link here yet but I will, remember I'm new a this. Just google it. Anyway, homies still have some downside but today I want to focus in on the real estate index. (IYR top left). I like to see volume on a chart but you can use $DJUSRE if you like. You can make the case for a head & shoulder top with the neckline about 83.85 which given the peak of $95 would imply a break to 72.70. The 200 day is under assault and has held firm many times in the past. The ultra short real estate proshares (SRS top right), you can go to American Stock Exch website for details, which has taken out 80 today and now need to blast through 84, is a great way to play this out. With option expiration this week anythings possible, so if you don't have your sea legs take some dramamine and have another look next week. There are no guarantees in any market, least of all the current one, but keep this one your radar.
Quick Hits.
Naz - laggard and is usually a bad omen when it is not the leader
Gold -consolidating now $700 is big number, if mkt slips up gold could go overboard as the perverbial baby with the bathwater as there are lots of profits in this sector and they will be used to meet margin calls. Retail sells winners not losers to meet mgn calls. remember that.
Oil - still think its a inv. h&s but who knows, 50 crossing 200 is a step but still working here.
Well, thats it for my first post. Tried to make it as painless as possible. See you soon.
Good trading to you all.

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