The weekly (above) shows a long term trend line in green which should offer some support around $45 area. We can and should expect this to be overshot, but remember this is not perfect science.
The daily chart (above) shows 2 potential we must recognize. The first is the development of a bear flag. The leg down forms what is known as the pole and the current rally(hilighted in yellow) is the flag. This is a very reliable pattern(according to Bulkowski studies). This would imply a move down to the $36-37. Crazy huh !
The second is what Elliott wavers would call a 5 wave down pattern. Jun-18-27 impulse wave 1. Jun 27-Jul16 wave 2 correction, Jul16-Aug6 impulse wave 3, Aug 6-13 wave 4 correction. with the final wave 5 down. Now I am not nor pretend to be an Elliott wave expert although I am arms length familiar with it. I have friends who are and I will check with them. I believe the wave 1 and wave 5 can have a 1:1 relationship which would invoke a target of $43.50 approximately.
I will now use this as a rough blueprint to follow Marathon. I love the underlying premise or story if you will and am a firm believer in 'peak oil' but I will not be foolhardy enough to let that override the charts. The great 'story' is a starting point but now that we have identified the target, we let the charts take over. Remember when someone tells you he is an investor we know better as investors are really speculators who made a mistake and will not admit it. Like Goldman averaging down, oops excuse me, investing with $3billion with their Alpha funds which are down 25-30%.
Keep your losses small and let your winners run. Good trading to you all.