Thursday, August 30, 2007

Some charts.... some thoughts.

The above chart is of the Mexico ishares. The jewel of Pemex is Cantarell and it is in decline not to mention disrepair, unless you believe government, any government but in this case Mexican, does things better than the private sector, suffice to say this blogger has his doubts. If you think the U.S. has an immigration problem now, just wait till the Mexican budget problems surface as Pemex is 40-45% of their revenue. I am an ardent supporter of LEGAL immigration in case you were wondering, it is what has and what will continue to make the U.S. great.

The Japan small cap fund shows some deterioration. There are some positive fundamentals coming out of Japan but I worry that with global equities being tied at the hip so to speak that the good fundamentals won't matter.

The Japan ishares (EWJ) above offer a large cap look at Japan . As I said fundamentals are improving and the minute I want to be long this is a market that will be at the top of my list as they should be a major beneficiary of Asian prosperity.

I want to touch on something that bolsters my claim that you should do your own homework and not listen to the shills and charlatans they trot out on television with recommendations and prognostications. I caught a segment on pompom TV (CNBC) this morning in which they had an analyst from Wachovia. In the segment the analyst in question claimed that they have been concerned about housing for a 1.5 - 2 years. Okay, fair enough that's what they claim. Now lets look at their actions. Remember back in Sept of 2006 Wachovia bought major west coast mortgage player Golden West Financial. Now my calendar is as good as anyone else's so that buy was done about a year ago. So let me get this straight, you concerned about the housing market for about the last year and a half to 2 years, yet your company goes out and buys a major mortgage player in one of the if not the hottest markets in the country in spike of those concerns. Do with this what you will I am just bringing the striking contradiction of analysis verses action to your attention.

In other news Basis capital of Australia said its 2nd largest fund hedge fund filed for bankruptcy. Remember this the same Basis that earned the ``Fund of the Year'' title at the 2005 AsiaHedge awards and Macquarie Bank Ltd.'s ``Skilled Manager of the Year'' in 2004. I ask now was it their skill and acumen that garnered the awards or did the rising tide lift their boat. I have mentioned previously that my grandfather always said you don't learn the value/skill of your pilot, skipper or physician till the $%#$% hits the fan. Well, we have our answer regarding Basis which unfortunately is too late for the holders in that bankrupt fund. I think I read somewhere to never confuse brains and a bull market.

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