Thursday, September 6, 2007

Deutsche Bank and Barclays Charts

The above chart of Deutsche Bank AG shows a very weak technical picture. Is it over due for a bounce of some consequence, of course. Therefore we not get impatient and guess but rather must remain patient, waiting to let the tape tell us what to do. To me $120 is speaking very loudly. I am reading that DB is #1 in foreclosures in the state of Florida. Now one can argue that California is ground zero as opposed to Florida, suffice to say both are problematic for years to come in the real estate arena. Now do we assume they have no sub prime, alt-A, conduit, SIV issues? I think the worst is yet to come here.

The above chart of Barclays paints a very bleak picture. Trend lines and moving averages broken and a stock consolidating its most recent plunge. The recent consolidation of the last 2 weeks may represent a bear flag. We will know as soon as 46.50 is broken convincingly that a new down leg has commenced and will trade it accordingly. Cat named Cahill who was the head of structured investments(oxy moron if ever I heard) recently resigned/fired, take your pick! Barclays also went to the Bank of England, AGAIN, for short term funding. This time due to a technical glitch, gosh don't you hate those, regardless the problems are slowing bubbling to the surface and they will be many and extremely unpleasant. Remember that news conforms to the tape and the tape on Barclays says down. Rallies are met with significant selling or distribution as some may call it.
The psychology of this market has changed and once it changes it is very hard to change it back. Many fund managers will be bottom fishing, fighting the last war so to speak. The financials will be a place to AVOID for the next many years to come. I do not make this statement lightly or with any malice but the facts are the facts. Just as it is and will continue to take years to repair the damage in the tech arena, post bubble, the same will be said of real estate and the financials. Yes Cisco is up 200% off the lows but tell that to the poor buy and hold boob who owns it north of $50. Good trading to you all.

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