Wednesday, October 17, 2007

Mid Week Thoughts.

Okay so Ericsson misses big time but everything is okay in tech land right? Goldman Sach's numbers are coming under some scrutiny/analysis, remember that level 3 stuff, mark to make believe? D.R. Horton, the nation's #2 home builder announces plunge in orders.

Key Bank out of Ohio has big trouble and this is a safe regional player, right? Rising oil good for the markets, right. It means a robust economy right. So ergo $110/bbl oil would be a fabulously robust economy. At some point the market starts to add it all up, no? They want it both ways, massage everything to fit your stance.

Then we have the automakers like GM moving on the union news. Has anyone looked at sales numbers? Last I heard you have to sell cars at a profit to continue as a going concern, but why let facts get in the way of a properly programmed black box. Look at the Chinese stocks as an example, the black box says buy and they buy, just like those same boxes told them to buy sub prime CDO's. and momentum.com. BIDU at 70x revenue now, yes you read that correctly 70x revenue, if you believe Chinese accounting. Lets just say I had a relative try to do biz in China some years back and I have my doubts, to put it mildly.

To the China stock longs whom I do not begrudge one bit I say, enjoy the party or as Chuck Prince of Citicorp likes to say "the music is still playing so we need to get up and dance". I hope you leave the dance with some profits. Like I said the other day the same people who told you everything was contained and there was nothing to worry about either lied or were oblivious and both are bad.

I want to take this opportunity to remind people that the until the facts of housing, sub prime, credit, leverage, derivatives, accounting gimmickry change I won't. There will come a time when just like energy and gold in 1999-2000 you will be laughed at for buying. Most of the traders out there are far to young to remember that equities were anathema back in 1979-1980, right as BusinessWeek published their infamous cover 'The Death of Equities". Everyone wanted commodities, precious metal and energy stocks in particular. You couldn't give away a basket of mainstream(S&P500 type) stocks. Just as they were embarking on a fabulous bull run. Market participants were still smarting from the Nifty Fifty fallout.

Those who don't learn from history are doomed to repeat it. I will have some charts posted shortly.

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