Tuesday, March 25, 2008

Charts on TIE, GLD, SLV, USO,and UNG

Thornburg doing an issue of senior notes at, ahemmm 18%. They are also suspended dividends on their preferreds'. Ah yes, the evidence of a credit crisis past over. Just waiting now for the S&P and Moodys triple-A stamp on this one.

I put the chart of Titanium Metals (above chart) because all I heard when this was running was how great and indicator this was of the global economy. Funny, all is quiet now on that front.

The Gold chart (above) looks to be reaching some trendline support. Is it time to get in the water. Maybe. I stayed away from Gold because I was scared of the margin call trade. The forced de-leverage. It is upon us, has it run its course? Not sure yet but I am watching with a close eye.

The silver chart (above) shows similar circumstance to gold. Restoring some health to an overextending market, shaking loose the more thinly capitalized latecomers to the party. The trend is still up, and in an uptrend or bull market one can have 1 of 3 positions, long, very long, or neutral. It will serve us well to remember that.

In the crude chart (above) I have included the fibonacci retracement levels of the most recent run. We are approaching a major support zone, the late 07-early 08 consolidation. The energy market, like precious metals, is in clear bull mode. I would expect this pullback to be shallower. So how can you like crude if you think the economy is going into a bad recession. Easy, peak oil. We are running out of the stuff, the easy stuff is gone. The harder to get, heavy, pain in the butt to refine into usable products, is what we are chasing now. The harder it is to get, the more energy is required to get it out of the ground.
Asia, and in particular the middle east are developing like crazy, simple matter of fact. Their wants and needs and rising just like ours. To deny this is folly. Any significant washout in crude must be viewed as an opportunity to get involved.

Natural Gas is simply a great looking chart. This pullback to and below the break out level looks to have shaken out the pikers like myself. I see myself getting reacquainted with this one in short order.

Good speculating to you all.

Open Positions:
Long 6 units Currencyshares Japanese Yen ticker FXY @ $88.55 stop at $91.40
Long 2 units Ultrashort China25 ticker FXP @ $84.55 stops at $84.85/$96.65
Long 4 units Ultrashort Dow 30 ticker DXD @ $58.00 stop at $53.10
Long 1 unit Ultrashort Real Estate ticker SRS @ $92.70 stop at $89.65
Long 1 unit Ultrashort Financials ticker SKF @ $100.70 stop at $98.70
Short 3 units of Deutsche Bank ticker DB @ $117.15 stop at $119.40

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