Wednesday, April 16, 2008

Getting Shorter The Dow.

Let me get this straight, the CEO of the company says they won't need to raise capital, and then the CFO of the same company says he wishes aforementioned CEO hadn't said that. You truly cannot make this stuff up.

Not to mention the WSJ story today about questions with LIBOR. You may banks may be lying about the rates they are paying for short term funding. Gosh, ya think? We are now dealing with pathological, professional liars. Too harsh a statement, probably for the same ones who believe the claims we are in the late innings of this mess. Just look at the facts surrounding the financials and the morass they find themselves in and my statement becomes in fact quite understated. Given this blog is for family viewing I will leave my criticism at that. The lying, the cheating, the fraud, the malfeasance have been rampant and I have commented on it before. It is ingrained and the sad part is the rest of us who DO NOT conduct our affairs in said fashion will pay the price. Savings, frugality, honesty all will go punished in the aftermath of the credit bubble.

Are you shocked by the what the Beige book release said today. Maybe you are more surprised with the markets meagre reaction. Yes I know many will claim a market that doesn't go down on bad news is bullish. And while on the surface I agree with the statement, there is much at work here on a longer term basis. I continue to believe we are in the midst of a short covering rally. It will end when it ends a not a moment before and all the excited bulls will lament the decision to get long of stocks into the most monumental financial event we will witness in our lifetimes. Hyperbole? Maybe but as I have said before a credit bubble of this magnitude and as far reaching (global) and pervasive (society wise) does not run its course over a couple of months. Every correction is believed to be temporary setback by the bulls, nothing more. They operate from the same playbook and I believe the game has changed significantly. I haven't rambled on at length about Peak Oil of which I am a FIRM believer in, which is a major if not THE major cause for crude's run. The oil issue only exacerbates the credit ones. Is this the confluence of the perfect storm, or I am the village idiot everyone makes fun of. Time will tell. But like I have said and continue to believe, future books will be written about this market and our complete unmitigated foolishness and unrivaled naivete.

I want to get more short the Dow. I am adding to my long Ultrashort Dow play (ticker DXD) with a 2nd unit long here at $54.15.

Good Speculating to you all.

Open Positions:
Long 6 units Currencyshares Japanese Yen ticker FXY @ $88.55 stop at $91.40
Long 2 units US Gasoline Fund ticker UGA @ $51.25 stop at $47.84
Long 2 units Ultrashort Dow ticker DXD @ $53.75 stop at $50.80
Long 1 unit Ultrashort Russell ticker TWM @ $74.80 stop at $72.40
Long 1 unit Ultrashort Nasdaq ticker QID @ $44.65 stop at $41.30
Long 1 unit Ultrashort Financials ticker SKF $102.20 stop at $95.80
Long 1 unit Ultrashort Real Estate ticker SRS $86.40 stop at $81.70
Short 2 units Daimler AG ticker DAI @ $86.20 stops at $84.20/$82.20
Short 1 unit Lehman ticker LEH @ $41.20 stop at $46.59

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