Thursday, April 24, 2008

Getting Short Brinker and shorter Darden.

The above chart is of Brinker Int'al ticker EAT. We have a nice bear flag forming which looks to give me a low rish entry pt here the upper end. I am shorting 1 unit here at $21.35 with a stop at $24.14
The above chart is my friend Darden ticker DRI. The time has come to add I am shorting a 2nd unit here at $34.15. The consumer is tapped out plain and simple, stimulus cheque or no stimulus cheque.

Had some Internet problems yesterday. Apologies to you all. Getting some new equipment for the house tomorrow morning. Hopefully all goes well with the install.
Okay where to start oh yeah, cleaning up the street.

SEC charging a trader for false rumors regarding Alliance Data. Is this a joke or what? What, with guys like John Mack of Morgan running around, tipping off his hedgie friends. How about going after John Thain at Merrill Lynch, for his false rumors last Wednesday with claims of no need for capital, which by the way his own CFO said he wished Thain had not said. Only to issue 7.3billion in bonds and preferred less than a week later.
I realise there is a shortage of suspects in this market for the SEC to go after. Sure, with the ratings agencies and their fraudulent triple A ratings, the banks and their Enronesque accounting, the homeowners with the fraud laden mortgage apps, the appraisers and their, well you cannot even call them appraisals anymore, the brokers and their level 3 make believe, they are going after little ol'd trader at bucketshop #9. Yup, the capital markets image is completely restored on the international scene with this news.
Truly comical. Next to eunuch in the dictionary should we should find the SEC. I have an idea after the SEC finishes charging this no nothing peon, how about going after all the short sellers. Yes that will work. Here is my list for the SEC to start going after, stock short sellers. gold longs, crude longs, gasoline longs. rice longs, wheat longs. Yes go after those dastardly foes. They are undermining the republic.

Are you watching these 'great' earnings beats. Massage the numbers down, then include one time games. Yahoo with Alibaba, Bank America et al with Visa. You want to argue with me more whether the equity traders ride the short bus.

All the bubble calling of the commodity market on CNBC. Boy, they sure have found religion. No where to be found in the tech bubble or the housing bubble because of course those are good bubbles. But gold or oil bubble, bad, very bad. You can make a very good living coppering pom pom TV's analysis of any situation.

Commodities are overbought but a bubble, hardly. I would caution all the CNBC celebrities err I meant anchors and hosts, on their use of hyperbole's in describing the commodity arena. They may want to save them for when they will be more appropriate. Like when crude is $200 +, for when gold is closing in on $2K. Just a thought guys.

The housing numbers today. Yup a bottom is in. Keep listening to the talking heads on CNBC. The highlight this week has been National City. As of Friday last week they had about 650 million shares outstanding and now, well just over 2 billion. Gives new meaning to the word dilution, but yes of course, its a generational buy in the banks. Yep, generational buy, less than 6 months after the greatest credit bubble in history has popped. Please look at the tech bubble aftermath for a glimpse of what is coming. 8 years later, hmmm quite the rebound we have had in tech no? According to pom pom TV tech is great, but shhhh just don't tell people the Naz was over 5000. Why let a simple fact like that get in the way of a 30% rally off the low that you can crow about. Criminal. Are you still listening to them?

Housekeeping notes. I want to move my stop up on UGA to $54.34

Good Speculating to you all.

Open Positions:
Short 1 unit Brinker Int'al ticker EAT @ $21.45 stop at $24.14
Long 6 units Currencyshares Japanese Yen ticker FXY @ $88.55 stop at $91.40
Long 2 units US Gasoline Fund ticker UGA @ $51.25 stop at $54.34
Long 1 unit Allis-Chalmers ticker ALY @ $14.45 stop at $12.64
Long 1 unit Frontier Oil ticker FTO @ $27.90 stop at $24.64
Short 2 units Daimler AG ticker DAI @ $86.20 stops at $84.20/$82.20
Short 2 units Darden ticker DRI @ $34.55 stop at $37.18

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