Friday, May 30, 2008

Banking Index

I had a problem with blogger yesteday and could not post but am back at it today. Sorry for my absence.

The above chart of the banking index ($BKX) shows a large descending triangle. Many market participants cannot get their arms around being short or the like so I like to turn it around in their favour. So, lets invert this chart for a moment, creating an ascending triangle. Now, lets go a step further and change its name to a retailer or tech stock, Walmart or Apple would suffice and presto, the bulls have a party to get so lathered up the stock opening would be delayed.

I would suggest you pay close heed to this chart as it bodes ill for the overall market, for as the financials go so goes the market.

Believe me, if I am looking for reasons to cover but I just do not see any. What I am seeing around me and reading for very reliable, credible, on the ground sources indicate we are no where near being done.

I remind you again that just as they can rise out of sight, prices can fall further than anyone can imagine possible. As big a bear on Nortel stock as I was back in 1999 at $127 Cdn, and believe me I was, I NEVER, EVER, EVER thought it would fall to $2. Keep that in mind if you are of the ilk that measures your bargains by how many points from the top it has sold off.

I came across a great piece by David Phillips over at the 10Q detective regarding Ford Motor and their purported turnaround. The post entitled 'Hauls More. Built for More: CASH! The 2008 Ford Executive' details yet again that something for nothing is alive and well in corporate America.

Housekeeping notes;

I was stopped out, some might call it slapped around, on 1 unit long of SLV at $167.10 for a very short visit and loss of 6 pts.

Good speculating to you all.

Open Positions:
Long 6 units Currencyshares Japanese Yen ticker FXY @ $88.55 stop at $91.40
Long 1 unit Allis-Chalmers ticker ALY @ $14.45 stop at $16.64
Long 3 units Ultrashort Dow DXD@ $50.12 stops 2/1 at DIA $132.68/130.26
Long 2 units Ultrashort Financials ticker SKF @ $103.90 stop at XLF $26.72
Long 1 unit Currencyshares Swiss Franc ticker FXF @ $96.25 stop at $93.82
Long 3 units Frontier Oil ticker FTO @ $28.35 stop at $27.82
Long 1 unit Ultrashort Real Estate ticker SRS @ $88.10 stop at IYR $71.08
Short 1 units Daimler AG ticker DAI @ $86.20 stop at $82.48
Short 1 unit Brinker Int'al ticker EAT @ $21.25 stop at $24.14
Short 3 units Retail Holders ticker RTH @ $96.72 stop at $98.56
Short 2 units Goldman Sachs ticker GS @ $191.53 stops at $197.68/$193.58
Short 2 units Darden ticker DRI @ $36.35 stops at $40.27/$38.34
Short 3 units Lehman ticker LEH @ $43.70 stops 2/1 at $47.46/$45.48
Short 2 units Deutsche Bank ticker DB @ $117.03 stop at $120.18

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