Wednesday, May 14, 2008

Credibility Issues

Are you shocked the equity markets like the CPI numbers, (gasoline in particular is the joke) or rather even believes them. You shouldn't be, as these are the same people who cheered the BLS employment numbers in which jobs were created in finance(+8,000) and construction(+45,000). But you should take this as the rumblings of a disgruntled bear and nothing more. I would love to get bullish but I will let others trade the news. To say that credibility is strained is putting it mildly.

I came across the following random news article, in which a raccoon bite caused the school to go to lock down. So it is fitting that Jim Sinclair had this post on his site today which I felt compelled to share with all of you. Enjoy.

Dear Friends,
Having gone to Iona Prep, being taught by the Irish Christian Brothers in the 1950s, you can be sure that I am a seasoned and tested survivor.
Leaving Iona to go hunting for the weekend after classes on Friday, being 16 years old, going to my shack in the Adirondack Mountains with my Winchester 94 in the cab of my sort of trusty Ford, I really can see times past in this article.
I made a few small changes because, hey, it isn't the 50s any more.

School -- 1957 vs. 2007

Scenario: Jack goes quail hunting before school, pulls into school parking lot with shotgun in gun rack.
1957 - Vice Principal comes over, looks at Jack's shotgun, goes to his car and gets his shotgun to show Jack.
2007 - School goes into lock down, FBI called, Jack hauled off to jail and never sees his truck or gun again. Counselors called in for traumatized students and teachers.

Scenario: Johnny and Mark get into a fistfight after school.
1957 - Crowd gathers. Mark wins. Johnny and Mark shake hands and end up buddies.
2007 - Police called, SWAT team arrives, arrests Johnny and Mark. Charge them with assault, both expelled even though Johnny started it.

Scenario: Jeffrey won't be still in class, disrupts other students.
1957 - Jeffrey sent to office and given a good paddling by the Principal. Returns to class, sits still and does not disrupt class again.
2007 - Jeffrey given huge doses of Ritalin. Becomes a zombie. Tested for ADD. School gets extra money from state because Jeffrey has a disability.

Scenario: Billy breaks a window in his neighbor's car and his Dad gives him a whipping with his belt.
1957 - Billy is more careful next time, grows up normal, goes to college, and becomes a successful businessman.
2007 - Billy's dad is arrested for child abuse. Billy removed to foster care and joins a gang. State psychologist tells Billy's sister that she remembers being abused herself and their dad goes to prison. Billy's mom has affair with psychologist.

Scenario: Mark gets a headache and takes some aspirin to school.
1957 - Mark shares aspirin with Principal out on the smoking dock.
2007 - Police called, Mark expelled from school for drug violations. Car searched for drugs and weapons.

Scenario: A foreign student fails high school English.
1957 - He goes to summer school, passes English, goes to college.
2007 – His cause is taken up by state. Newspaper articles appear nationally explaining that teaching English as a requirement for graduation is racist. ACLU files class action lawsuit against state school system and his English teacher. English banned from core curriculum. He is given a diploma anyway.

Scenario: Johnny takes apart leftover firecrackers from 4th of July, puts them in a model airplane paint bottle, blows up a red ant bed.
1957 - Ants die.
2007 - BATF, Homeland Security, FBI called. Johnny charged with domestic terrorism, FBI investigates parents, siblings removed from home, computers confiscated, Johnny's Dad goes on a terror watch list and is never allowed to fly again.

Scenario: Johnny falls while running during recess and scrapes his knee. He is found crying by his teacher, Mary. Mary hugs him to comfort him.
1957 - In a short time, Johnny feels better and goes on playing.
2007 - Mary is accused of being a sexual predator and loses her job. She faces 3 years in State Prison. Johnny undergoes 5 years of therapy.


Fitting post don't you think? I will post some charts later today as I have a few items on my plate this am.

Good speculating to you all !

Open Positions:
Long 6 units Currencyshares Japanese Yen ticker FXY @ $88.55 stop at $91.40
Long 1 unit Allis-Chalmers ticker ALY @ $14.45 stop at $16.64
Long 2 units Ultrashort MSCI ticker EFU @ $76.25 stop at $74.34
Long 1 unit Ultrashort Russell 2K ticker TWM @ $74.60 stop at $69.92
Short 2 units Daimler AG ticker DAI @ $86.20 stops at $82.48/$81.38
Short 1 unit Brinker Int'al ticker EAT @ $21.25 stop at $24.14
Short 3 units Retail Holders ticker RTH @ $96.72 stop at $98.56
Short 1 unit Goldman Sachs ticker GS @ $197.95 stop at $197.68
Short 1 unit Darden ticker DRI @ $37.30 stop at $40.27
Short 2 units Lehman ticker LEH @ $43.70 stop at $47.46
Short 1 unit Deutsche Bank ticker DB @ $117.80 stop at $120.18


m said...

Check out USU, I think you may find it interesting.

John T said...

Great post!

Harleydog said...


Thx, I will have a look at it.

Harleydog said...

John T

appreciate your kind words, thx for reading.