Tuesday, May 27, 2008

Cutting Him Some Slack

I came across the following article by Martin Hutchinson entitled Time to Do Something about Oil. He writes over at David Tice's Prudent Bear site. Now I have never met Mr. Hutchinson but I have read some of his stuff from time to time and have agree with many of his points but after reading this piece I have to wonder what he's smoking or drinking ! If you have not read the piece, please do as it illuminates the mentality of some out there who believe what's mine is mine and what's yours is mine. Prepare yourself for more and more of this type of thinking, if it can be called that, as many out there have no idea of what to do when the cheese gets moved.

Actually as the take and have mentality of the society we live in we should not be shocked by the hubris of Mr. Hutchinson's statements. Don't adapt or innovate to the changing landscape, just cling and claw to the old playbook, by force if necessary. Look at the global financial institutions, begging for relaxation of accounting rules pertaining to write downs. God forbid you take your medicine like a capitalistic big boy, no, whine and squeal like an infant.

The game has changed and they want to stay the same. Big problem. Side story. Most of you know the name Kareem Abdul Jabbar, all time leading scorer in the NBA and in my opinion the greatest player ever. Back when he was at UCLA by the name of Lew Alcindor at UCLA playing for John Wooden, (freshman were not allowed to play), they NCAA, outlawed the dunk after his sophomore season because he was so dominant. I know how unbelievably ridiculous this sounds, and so did the rules committee which is why they claimed it was about injuries and the equipment, but it is true, it was done to stop his dominance. Is this human nature?, to change the rules of the game when we start disliking the outcome? Don't like losses change the accounting rules? Avoid em' pretend they're not their. Don't like food prices? No problem impose price controls! ( mark my words this is coming people, count on it! ) No more easy accessible oil? Just saddle up the boys take someone elses'.

Lunacy, pure and simple.

I wonder what Mr. Hutchinson would have to say if the Chinese initiated plans with an eye towards our coal, or Canada's tar sands. Mr. Hutchinson proves once again that hubris knows no bounds, now that's assuming it is sober ! Tell you what, I am going to cut him some slack, assume he started his Memorial Day weekend a tad early and would have lit up a breathalyzer like a Christmas tree and be done with it.

In my post A Bull Market in Mirrors, I had a chart of GE, and hi-lighted the significant of the $31 level. Well, that has given way and it bodes VERY ILL for the overall market. I am not short GE but I am short the Dow via long DXD.

U.S. home prices falling 14%, the most in 20 years, YUP credit crisis is over, housing has bottomed ! I have a question for the bulls, a serious question, not a mocking, sarcastic question but a very serious one. If you truly believe the worst of the credit crisis over, why then are the financials begging for the accounting rules to be changed? For if true, that these losses and write downs they are SUPPOSED to be taking are temporary and distressed, then there are going to be astronomical write ups and gains in the future to line your pockets with. I would think you would want the banks and brokers to take these temporary and phony write downs, given you an opportunity to back up the truck on your favourite plays. I am open to suggestions, but again I ask


Speaking of financials, I see Bank America has broken the pennnant I outlawed in my post Gold and Bank America. Bank America is buying Countrywide for the same reasons JP Morgan bought Bear Stearns, they are counter party to many of their hedge positions. No counter party, no hedge, plain and simple, something even this simpleton trader gets ! I am not short Bank America though I wish I was, but I am short financials via long SKF.

I heard Merrill upgraded Darden to buy this morning leading to a nice 5% pop that was trumpeted on pompom TV. Don't get fooled, use the pump monkeys to your own advantage and sell the strength. You'll be glad you did in 12 months. and yes I am short Darden and Brinker.

Some charts of interest in short order.

Good speculating to you all.

Open Positions:
Long 6 units Currencyshares Japanese Yen ticker FXY @ $88.55 stop at $91.40
Long 1 unit Allis-Chalmers ticker ALY @ $14.45 stop at $16.64
Long 3 units Ultrashort Dow DXD@ $50.12 stops 2/1 at DIA $132.68/130.26
Long 2 units Ultrashort Financials ticker SKF @ $103.90 stop at XLF $26.72
Long 1 unit Currencyshares Swiss Franc ticker FXF @ $96.25 stop at $93.82
Long 3 units Frontier Oil ticker FTO @ $28.35 stop at $25.26
Long 1 unit Ultrashort Real Estate ticker SRS @ $88.10 stop at IYR $71.08
Short 1 units Daimler AG ticker DAI @ $86.20 stop at $82.48
Short 1 unit Brinker Int'al ticker EAT @ $21.25 stop at $24.14
Short 3 units Retail Holders ticker RTH @ $96.72 stop at $98.56
Short 2 units Goldman Sachs ticker GS @ $191.53 stops at $197.68/$193.58
Short 2 units Darden ticker DRI @ $36.35 stops at $40.27/$38.34
Short 3 units Lehman ticker LEH @ $43.70 stops 2/1 at $47.46/$45.48
Short 2 units Deutsche Bank ticker DB @ $117.03 stop at $120.18

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