Tuesday, May 27, 2008

A Bubble ?

I want you to scroll down and take a glance at the 4 charts posted below. Don't enlarge them, just scroll down and look them over.






Now ask yourself the following, Do any of these stocks look like a bubble to you ? Okay enough, The charts are of the various oil and gas indices. The point I was trying to make is that if the above charts were named Google or Apple or RIMM or Crocs no one would have a problem with them. It's got to be a bubble since it's oil.
We are in a very precarious supply/demand equation globally regarding oil. Now I need some one to explain to me where the supply is coming from. I don't see it from Mexico, I don't see it from Russia, I don't see it from Saudi Arabia. I see them in decline. Yes Brazil has a major discovery, I just don't see how it does anything other than keep us from falling even faster behind on the supply side of the equation.
Just keep some of this in mind the next time you want to short crude. When in a bull market there are only 3 positions one can have, bullish, very bullish or neutral. I am neutral and I say this as a reminder to all those wishing to short oil in a bull market for oil.

Good speculating to you all.

Open Positions:

Long 6 units Currencyshares Japanese Yen ticker FXY @ $88.55 stop at $91.40
Long 1 unit Allis-Chalmers ticker ALY @ $14.45 stop at $16.64
Long 3 units Ultrashort Dow DXD@ $50.12 stops 2/1 at DIA $132.68/130.26
Long 2 units Ultrashort Financials ticker SKF @ $103.90 stop at XLF $26.72
Long 1 unit Currencyshares Swiss Franc ticker FXF @ $96.25 stop at $93.82
Long 3 units Frontier Oil ticker FTO @ $28.35 stop at $25.26
Long 1 unit Ultrashort Real Estate ticker SRS @ $88.10 stop at IYR $71.08
Short 1 units Daimler AG ticker DAI @ $86.20 stop at $82.48
Short 1 unit Brinker Int'al ticker EAT @ $21.25 stop at $24.14
Short 3 units Retail Holders ticker RTH @ $96.72 stop at $98.56
Short 2 units Goldman Sachs ticker GS @ $191.53 stops at $197.68/$193.58
Short 2 units Darden ticker DRI @ $36.35 stops at $40.27/$38.34
Short 3 units Lehman ticker LEH @ $43.70 stops 2/1 at $47.46/$45.48
Short 2 units Deutsche Bank ticker DB @ $117.03 stop at $120.18

2 comments:

synthetik said...

Good call. It appears that Peak Oil happened back in 2005 or so.

I expecct a short term pullback but we'll probably see $200 oil before $70 again.

Harleydog said...

synthetik

thx for your kind words and stopping by the blog. agree on the pullback and on 200 before 70.

funny how pullbacks in any other sector is a buying op but in metals and energy its a bubble popping.

just gotta love pompom TV