Tuesday, May 13, 2008

Revisiting Deutche Bank....short !

Remember this chart? Our old friend Deutsche Bank ticker DB. That large multi-month head and shoulder formation is still valid. All we have done is rallied back into the neckline which now serves as resistance. The next chart gives a better close up view of the most recent action.

The bulls would argue a double bottom is in. Now this is distinctly possible but consider the fact that the H&S formation is multi month and this double bottom is just a few weeks. Food for thought. The most recent action since mid April looks like a rectangle (continuation?) formation bounded by, roughly, 123 and 117.
I am getting short 1 unit here at $117.90 with a stop at $120.18, which is just above the most recent rally high of $119.55.
I will be compelled to add a 2nd unit short on a move below the bottom of that rectangle, lets call it $116.40 and be done with it.

Housekeeping notes;
I was stopped out of my 2 unit long position of DBA at $36.45 for basically a flat trade. Frustrating but we will keep our eye on this one.
Was stopped out of 1 unit of GS at $192.20 for a gain of $5 + pts on 1 unit. Still holding 1 unit short.
Was stopped out of 2 units of SRS at $84.75 for a loss of just under a pt on 2 units long.
Was stopped out of 2 units long of SDS at $56.12 for a gain of almost a pt on 2 units, and which looks like the low for the day. Nice, but such is trading !
Good speculating to you all !

Open Positions:

Long 6 units Currencyshares Japanese Yen ticker FXY @ $88.55 stop at $91.40
Long 1 unit Allis-Chalmers ticker ALY @ $14.45 stop at $16.64
Long 2 units Ultrashort MSCI ticker EFU @ $76.25 stop at $74.34
Long 1 unit Ultrashort Russell 2K ticker TWM @ $74.60 stop at $69.92
Short 2 units Daimler AG ticker DAI @ $86.20 stops at $82.48/$81.38
Short 1 unit Brinker Int'al ticker EAT @ $21.25 stop at $24.14
Short 3 units Retail Holders ticker RTH @ $96.72 stop at $98.56
Short 1 unit Goldman Sachs ticker GS @ $197.95 stop at $197.68
Short 1 unit Darden ticker DRI @ $37.30 stop at $40.27
Short 2 units Lehman ticker LEH @ $43.70 stop at $47.46
Short 1 unit Deutsche Bank ticker DB @ $117.80 stop at $120.18

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