Friday, May 16, 2008

The Swissy, XLF, Gold and Darden

We need to have the Franc on our radar as this correction on the Franc may have run its course. I will be getting long 2 units FXF on a move above $96

Gold is in a bull market and and as Dennis Gartman likes to say in a bull market you can only be long, very long or neutral. Now I know Wall St. is bullish everywhere and always, I'll give you 3 guesses as to why and the first 2 don't count! Anyway, Gold is in a bull market and right now I am neutral. This rally looks enticing but I have early April in the back of my mind. Unlike the cat who sat on the hot stove and now avoids all stoves, I will be sitting back on this stove, but I am waiting for volume. This trend line break MUST be confirmed by volume in a big way. Until then I am neutral and still a skeptic.

The chart of the XLF(above) shows a very lacklustre picture. The volume for the 10 week rally is not impressive and quite frankly bodes ill going forward. As my notes on the chart indicate the action of the last week looks bear flagish.

Darden is a current short for me. I intend to get shorter on any move below $35.55. I was silly to not respect a larger rally given the immense size of the rebate stimulus cheques. Hopefully one won't be coming every quarter or the market will be at $20,000 quite quickly ! If only Mellon knew of that trick he could have circumvented the depression and had a fawning book written about him !

Good speculating to you all !

Open Positions:
Long 6 units Currencyshares Japanese Yen ticker FXY @ $88.55 stop at $91.40
Long 1 unit Allis-Chalmers ticker ALY @ $14.45 stop at $16.64
Short 2 units Daimler AG ticker DAI @ $86.20 stops at $82.48/$81.38
Short 1 unit Brinker Int'al ticker EAT @ $21.25 stop at $24.14
Short 3 units Retail Holders ticker RTH @ $96.72 stop at $98.56
Short 1 unit Goldman Sachs ticker GS @ $197.95 stop at $197.68
Short 1 unit Darden ticker DRI @ $37.30 stop at $40.27
Short 2 units Lehman ticker LEH @ $43.70 stop at $47.46
Short 1 unit Deutsche Bank ticker DB @ $117.80 stop at $120.18

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