Friday, June 13, 2008

Antennae Up on Brinker - Eat and Panera - PNRA

I am short 1 unit of Brinker Int'al ticker EAT (chart above). This (bear) flag looks to be now on the verge of breaking the lower bound of the flag. This would look to occur about 19.25-30. I will wait for $19 to be broken and will use that break to add to my short position.

I hate to post the chart on Panera (above). I love the place. When you can't find a 3rd generation ol' fashioned deli and franchise is the only option, Panera stacks up the best for me. That being said that has nothing to do with speculating in Panera. The chart looks to have formed a double top here. and looks set to violate the lowest mid-point of $46, which if done will inflict much pain on PNRA longs. A stop around $45 could and should protect you. Now I realise you could argue that this is a continuation rectangle bounded by 53 thru 46. I would respect this scenario more if the U.S. consumer wasn't in the dire predicament I believe him to be in.

I want to do a little stop management today on some existing positions. Call me all sorts of names but fear of loss is not the worst trait you can have in speculating.

3 units long Ultrashort Dow (DXD) - adding a 3rd stop at $126.42
2 units long Ultrashort Financials (SKF) - moving stops down to XLF level $25.42/$24.86
2 units long Ultrashort Real Estate (SRS) - moving stops down to IYR levle $70.21/68.36
1 unit long Ultrashort QQQ (QID) - moving stop down to QQQQ level $49.56
2 units long Frontier Oil (FTO) - moving stop up to $26.36
1 unit short Daimler AG (DAI) - moving stop down to $71.62
2 units short Darden (DRI) - moving stops down to $35.36/33.54
2 units short Lehman (LEH) - moving stops down to $28.32/25.84
2 units short Deutsche Bank (DB) - moving stops down to $105.26/99.32
1 unit short Visa (V) - moving stop down to $85.36

Good speculating to you all.

Open Positions:
Long 6 units Currencyshares Japanese Yen ticker FXY @ $88.55 stop at $91.40
Long 3 units Ultrashort Dow DXD@ $50.12 stops at DIA $130.26/127.34/126.42
Long 2 units Ultrashort Financials SKF @ $103.90 stops at XLF $26.72/25.54
Long 1 unit Currencyshares Swiss Franc ticker FXF @ $96.25 stop at $93.82
Long 2 units Ultrashort ReEstate ticker SRS @ $88.80 stops at IYR $70.21/68.36
Long 1 unit US Gasoline Fund ticker UGA @ $60.35 stop at $60.92
Long 1 unit US Heating Oil Fund ticker UHN @ $58.00 stop at $60.87
Long 1 unit Ultrashort QQQ ticker QID @ $37.05 stop at QQQQ $49.56
Long 1 units Ultrashort S&P ticker SDS @ $57.20 stop at SPY $141.54
Long 2 units Frontier Oil ticker FTO @ $26.25 stop at $26.36
Long 1 unit Hecla Mining ticker HL @ $8.30 stop at $7.16
Long 1 unit Kinross Gold ticker KGC @ $18.70 stop at $17.56
Short 1 units Daimler AG ticker DAI @ $86.20 stop at $71.62
Short 1 unit Brinker Int'al ticker EAT @ $21.25 stop at $22.44
Short 2 units Goldman Sachs ticker GS @ $191.53 stops at $184.43/180.76
Short 2 units Darden ticker DRI @ $36.35 stops at $35.36/33.54
Short 2 units Lehman ticker LEH @ $43.70 stops at $28.32/25.84
Short 2 units Deutsche Bank ticker DB @ $117.03 stops at $105.26/99.32
Short 1 unit of Visa ticker V @ $86.25 stop at $85.36
Short 1 unit of Netflix ticker NFLX @ $31.10 stop at $34.64

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