Monday, June 9, 2008

Getting short Neflix ticker NFLX

As my notes indicate, ignore this chart at your own peril. The boys at Comstock Partners had a great post this week entitled 'It's the Housing Market, Stupid !' in which they reiterate that the most significant issue facing the U.S. economy and stock market. I wholeheartedly agree. I bring this up because the BKX chart (above) seems to be in agreement as it is telling a story of more problems which is in direct contravention of proclamations of 'it's all over' by Wall St.

As a side note pompom TV reported that Bob Doll of Blackrock, speaking in Singapore I believe, expects this credit problem to last 2-4 more years. Funny, I thought he and Larry Fink thought the bottom was back in March. Guess they're changing their tunes. which is their perogative and I applaud anyone who realizing he/she is wrong can reverse themselves. But I bring this up because when the market was in bear market rally mode, pompom TV played the clip of his "bullish bottom is in" call incessantly. Ya think they will call him out on it? Don't bet on it.

I want to bring your attention to a little former market favourite by the name of Netflix. Now readers know I give paramount attention to tape or price action. We have a very nice looking bear flag developing with an implied target of $18-19.

Now I know with a slowing economy this is an outfit that could benefit as people stay at home, pay down debt and hunker down. Cheap entertainment will be in vogue. That being said, many like to trade in a story but I would pay attention to the tape as it is saying down, story or no story.

I would have like to have caught this as it rallied to the upper boundary, but alas I am getting short 1 unit here at $31.20 with a stop at $34.64. I will look to add a 2nd unit short on a move beneath the lower boundary of the flag for me I will use the pole of 29.45

Good speculating to you all.

Open Positions:

Long 6 units Currencyshares Japanese Yen ticker FXY @ $88.55 stop at $91.40
Long 3 units Ultrashort Dow DXD@ $50.12 stops 2/1 at DIA $130.26/127.34
Long 2 units Ultrashort Financials SKF @ $103.90 stops at XLF $26.72/25.54
Long 1 unit Currencyshares Swiss Franc ticker FXF @ $96.25 stop at $93.82
Long 3 units Frontier Oil ticker FTO @ $28.35 stop at $27.82
Long 1 unit Ultrashort Real Estate ticker SRS @ $88.10 stop at IYR $71.08
Long 1 unit US Gasoline Fund ticker UGA @ $60.35 stop at $60.92
Long 1 unit US Heating Oil Fund ticker UHN @ $58.00 stop at $60.87
Long 1 unit Ultrashort QQQ ticker QID @ $37.05 stop at QQQQ $52.24
Long 1 units Ultrashort S&P ticker SDS @ $57.20 stop at SPY $141.54
Short 1 units Daimler AG ticker DAI @ $86.20 stop at $82.48
Short 1 unit Brinker Int'al ticker EAT @ $21.25 stop at $22.44
Short 2 units Goldman Sachs ticker GS @ $191.53 stops at $184.43/180.76
Short 2 units Darden ticker DRI @ $36.35 stops at $36.37/$35.24
Short 2 units Lehman ticker LEH @ $43.70 stops at $36.27/$30.92
Short 2 units Deutsche Bank ticker DB @ $117.03 stops at $114.89/105.37
Short 2 units HSBC ticker HBC @ $83.23 stop at $86.78
SShort 1 unit of Visa ticker V @ $86.25 stop at $91.17
Short 1 unit of Netflix ticker NFLX @ $31.10 stop at $34.64

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