Friday, June 6, 2008

Unemployment Friday.

Well, we got the unemployment number this morning and it was not good jumping to 5.5%. I would assume the only ones shocked by that are the bulls who are actually basis trading decisions off the governments numbers. Truly astounding they will ignore everything happening around them in the real world and instead focus on the fantasy land of BLS statistics. Short bus anyone?

Offending I suggest that equity players ride the short bus. Oh yeah yesterday crude rallying 5+ pts was worth a 200 +pt rally in the Dow and today? Crude rallying 5 pts which is now good for a 200+ pt loss.

No Recession huh!

I have been looking for a WII for months, wasn't able to get one, too much competition so we gave up. The local Meijer store would get 6 a weekend and they would be lined up for them as they could start selling em' by 6am. Well o well I decided to check the situation out again noon on a Saturday afternoon. Mucho WIIs.

Local popular restaurants around here have plenty of room at peak hrs for your party of 6 now! Check out your area.

My nephew in the auto biz, tells me you can pick up a loaded Cadillac Escalade 2 wheel drive with low mileage, 30k I believe for about $14K. Remember now this retailed new for about $55-60K.

SUV's are sitting on used car lots(20-22month avg) that dealers are reluctant to take em' on trade.

Yep, no reason to doubt Brian Westbury's continual assertions that we are not in recession. The academics love his reasoning and logic. Hey, there's a couple of Fed seats open!

I caught some of former Dallas Fed governor McTeer's comments this morning on pompom TV. He believes if you are outside of real estate and mortgages you are doing fine the economy is okay. He also threw in one of Paulsen and Bernanke's mandatory talking points using that word resilient, again.

"A lot of banks have loans in the real estate area, but we haven't heard from. A lot of banks hold mortgage backed securities that may be perfectly safe and sound, but they are having to write a lot of them down, due to mark to market accounting rules, which as you know I don't believe in very much under these circumstances."

Now this was not spoken by Jim Cramer, Larry Kudlow or some other blowhard, but rather a former voting Fed governor. Should tell you volumes about why we are in the predicament we find ourselves in and where this all leads. His comments should be self explanatory as to why I am short, and probably not short enough !

Speaking with regards to former Fed chairman Volcker's (whom regular readers know I feel is THE REAL maestro!) comments on this current Fed and the dollar, McTeer had this to say.

"Mr. Volcker did well to hold his peace as long as he did, I wish he'd held it just a little bit longer, ..... and about the Fed pushing the envelope, it may cause future problems but the current problem they were facing would have been horrific and I think they did what they had to do and they didn't need any second guessing. "

Read it again, because when I heard it this morning I couldn't believe my ears. Remember now, this is a former Fed governor. Clarifies quite clearly the elitist, we know better than anyone, how to do things mentality of the Fed. And don't you dare second guess anything we do, so just sit down and shut up. Or at least have the courtesy to wait long enough for us to exit the scene, or mount or counter offensive. Pathetic.

In my opinion, anyone who doubts who got us here, needs their head examined. Yet we expect the same ones who created the mess to fix it. Mike Shedlock is absolutely correct, the Fed unquestionably needs to be abolished.

Good speculating to you all.

Open Positions:
Long 6 units Currencyshares Japanese Yen ticker FXY @ $88.55 stop at $91.40
Long 3 units Ultrashort Dow DXD@ $50.12 stops 2/1 at DIA $130.26/127.34
Long 2 units Ultrashort Financials SKF @ $103.90 stop at XLF $26.72/25.54
Long 1 unit Currencyshares Swiss Franc ticker FXF @ $96.25 stop at $93.82
Long 3 units Frontier Oil ticker FTO @ $28.35 stop at $27.82
Long 1 unit Ultrashort Real Estate ticker SRS @ $88.10 stop at IYR $71.08
Long 1 unit Ultrashort QQQ ticker QID @ $37.05 stop at QQQQ $52.24
Long 1 units Ultrashort S&P ticker SDS @ $57.20 stop at SPY $141.54
Short 1 units Daimler AG ticker DAI @ $86.20 stop at $82.48
Short 1 unit Brinker Int'al ticker EAT @ $21.25 stop at $22.44
Short 2 units Goldman Sachs ticker GS @ $191.53 stops at $184.43/180.76
Short 2 units Darden ticker DRI @ $36.35 stops at $36.37/$35.24
Short 2 units Lehman ticker LEH @ $43.70 stops at $40.54/$36.27
Short 2 units Deutsche Bank ticker DB @ $117.03 stops at $114.89/105.37
Short 1 unit HSBC ticker HBC @ $ 83.65 stop at $86.78
Short 1 unit of Visa ticker V @ $86.25 stop at $91.17

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