Friday, June 27, 2008

Watching Coal and the Swiss Franc

I want to counsel everyone out there, McCain, Obama, everyone..... stop being so negative. Don't you realise it is a self fulfilling prophecy and we are talking ourselves into the malaise. I caught a piece from Sam Zell where he commented basically that we are talking ourselves into the toilet. Now don't get me wrong Sam Zell is the real estate guru, just as Blackstone (BX) as he unloaded his holdings to them at the top of the market.

Remember my comment that when you play poker, look around the table for the sucker or mark if you prefer, and if you don't see him/her leave, as you are the sucker. Too bad the hedge fund valets think they are experts at anything that trades. Right Cerberus ?

My point is that NOT talking about negative economic circumstances will surely make it go away right Mr. Zell. I respectfully disagree and believe this is the same type of thinking that got us into this mess. Ignore the warning signs. The sleet is falling, the temperature is dropping, your young children and beautiful spouse are in the vehicle and you are speeding around the corner. I have an idea, ignore those obvious facts and think about the wonderful tires you have on the vehicle, how cars these days handle much better. Yup keep those rose colored glasses on.

Regarding the Market Vectors Coal ticker KOL, I am adjusting my trigger to a break above $57.10 to add the 2nd unit long.

Keep your eye on the Currencyshares Swiss Franc, 98.25 to be precise as this is my trigger on a 3rd unit.

Housekeeping notes;

In all the action of recent days I neglected to note I was stopped out of half (1 unit) short of my Darden short at $33.60 for a gain of $2.75 pts. as the boyz jammed the stock up on very good earnings, which no doubt is comfort to the consume/restaurant bulls. My opinion is that that gap up was a gift to get out and my guess is the smart money did so as it is giving much of it back.

I was stopped out of my Frontier Oil position at $23.45 for a loss of $1.75 on 2 pts. Why do I keep banging my head against this wall. I can assure you when I walk away from this one it will run like Secretariat.

I am adjusting some stops on some positions which have become extremely profitable as follow;

DXD - new stops at 3 units long at $62.22/60.49/58.62
SKF - new stops at 2 units long at $139.46/134.67
SRS - new stops on 3 units long at $99.23/97.47/92.72
QID - new stop on 1 unit long at $41.91
EAT - new stop on 2 units short at $20.68
NFLX - new stop on 2 units short at $32.34

Good speculating to you all and always remember that "an investor is a speculator who made a mistake and will not admit it".

Open Positions:
Long 6 units Currencyshares Japanese Yen ticker FXY @ $88.55 stop at $91.40
Long 3 units Ultrashort Dow DXD@ $50.12 stops $62.22/60.49/58.62
Long 2 units Ultrashort Financials SKF @ $103.90 stops $139.46/134.67
Long 2 units Currencyshares Swiss Franc ticker FXF @ $96.83 stop at $93.82
Long 3 units Ultrashort ReEstate ticker SRS @ $88.95 stops $99.23/97.47/92.72
Long 1 unit US Gasoline Fund ticker UGA @ $60.35 stop at $62.54
Long 1 unit Ultrashort QQQ ticker QID @ $37.05 stop at $41.91
Long 1 unit Ultrashort S&P ticker SDS @ $57.20 stop $61.57
Long 2 units Hecla Mining ticker HL @ $8.50 stop at $7.16
Long 2 units Kinross Gold ticker KGC @ $18.93 stop at $17.56
Long 1 unit Market Vector Coal ticker KOL @ $55.70 stop at $52.27
Short 1 units Daimler AG ticker DAI @ $86.20 stop at $70.12
Short 2 units Brinker Int'al ticker EAT @ $20.07 stop at $20.68
Short 2 units Darden ticker DRI @ $36.35 stops at $35.36
Short 2 units Lehman ticker LEH @ $43.70 stop at $28.32
Short 2 units Deutsche Bank ticker DB @ $117.03 stops at $105.26/99.32
Short 1 unit of Visa ticker V @ $86.25 stop at $85.36
Short 1 unit HSBC ticker HBC @ $83.23 stop at $83.52
Short 2 units of Netflix ticker NFLX @ $30.35 stop at $32.34
Short 1 unit of IBM ticker IBM @ $122.80 stop at $127.27

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