Thursday, July 31, 2008

Closely Watching Visa -V

Yes I know Visa reported numbers today and they were fabulous. But remember that I believe over the longer term, and by longer I mean longer than 30 minutes, all news conforms to the tape. I let the tape or the chart tell me what action to take.

Visa, ticker V, as regular readers know, was a short position I was recently stopped out of for a decent profit. I bring it up again because we have an extremely nice looking flag formation on the daily chart (above). Having missed an entry at the top end of the formation near $78, I will now wait for the lower boundary to be broken to the downside. Eyeballing it, it looks to be around $71.

Did you catch the Greenspan interview, if it can be called that. Poor Maria, her days as the money honey seem numbered so you can appreciate her attempts at ingratiating herself with the powers that be as she attempt to reference stuff her CV.

I was surprised at how the Maestro, of obfuscation that is, used plain English to call the credit crisis one of not liquidity but SOLVENCY ! Who would have thunk that now. Cutting edge analysis the boyz at Pimco are paying for now aren't they?

I heard Jim Cramer of pom pom TV officially called a bottom in the market last night. Just for comparative purposes I caught this snippet from Porter Stansberry who relayed what long time, global money manager Jeremy Grantham, speaking to a crowd said the following;

"In 2000", he said, "we had a technology bubble. But this is massive, a massive credit crisis and a bubble in global housing, global equity and global land." He called it the "first truly global bubble." When asked by a money manager what to buy now, he said "long mattresses" to store cash. He seriously suggested putting money into high-quality hedge funds. Also, Grantham admitted, "I bought my first gold last week, and I hate gold. It doesn't pay a dividend. I would only do it if I was desperate."

So take your pick.

Good speculating to you all and no matter what anyone tells you, never ever forget that "an investor is a speculator who made a mistake and will not admit it".

Open Positions:
Long 6 units Currencyshare Japanese Yen ticker FXY @ $88.55 stop at $91.40
Long 4 units Currencyshares Swiss Franc ticker FXF @ $97.70 stop at $93.82
Long 1 unit Ultrashort Dow ticker DXD@ $50.12 stop at $58.62
Long 1 unit Ultrashort QQQ ticker QID @ $37.05 stop at $42.87
Long 2 units Hecla Mining ticker HL @ $8.50 stop at $8.09
Long 2 units Ultrashort 20yr Treasury ticker TBT @ $67.85 stops at $69.24/68.32
Long 1 unit Ultrashort Financials ticker SKF @ $119.60 stop at $114.38
Short 1 unit Int'al Bus Machines ticker IBM @ $129.05 stop at $131.54

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