Monday, July 21, 2008

Getting Long Gold and Crude via GLD and USO.

I expected a deeper correction on gold than we received and rather than chase it I have been waiting on a opportunity to get long once again. The recent breakout was wonderful and now we are being rewarded with an entry point as GLD corrects back to the breakout area. I am getting long 1 unit here at $94.85 with a stop at $91.84


As my notes indicate, if this were a chart of an everyday household name, the shills on pom pom TV would be foaming at the mouth screaming "it's a buy!". Unfortunately it is energy, and bull markets in energy are not warmly received. That being said this looks to be nothing more than a healthy correction in a longstanding bull market. Therefore I am getting long 1 unit here at $105.45, with a stop just below the recent lows, lets call it 103.58 and be done with it.


Good speculating to you all and always remember that "an investor is a speculator who made a mistake and will not admit it".


Open Positions:
Long 6 units Currencyshares Japanese Yen ticker FXY @ $88.55 stop at $91.40
Long 2 units Ultrashort Dow DXD@ $50.12 stops $60.49/58.62
Long 4 units Currencyshares Swiss Franc ticker FXF @ $97.70 stop at $93.82
Long 1 unit Ultrashort QQQ ticker QID @ $37.05 stop at $42.87
Long 1 unit Ultrashort S&P ticker SDS @ $57.20 stop $66.89
Long 2 units Hecla Mining ticker HL @ $8.50 stop at $7.74
Long 2 units Kinross Gold ticker KGC @ $18.93 stop at $21.24
Long 2 units Ultrashort 20yr Treasury ticker TBT @ $67.85 stops at $69.24/68.32
Long 1 unit SPDR Gold trust ticker GLD @ $94.95 stop at $91.84
Long 1 unit U.S. Oil Fund ticker USO $ 105.55 stop at $103.58
Short 2 units Brinker Int'al ticker EAT @ $20.07 stop at $19.64
Short 2 units Darden ticker DRI @ $36.35 stop at $33.16
Short 1 unit Deutsche Bank ticker DB @ $117.03 stops at $93.37
Short 1 unit of Visa ticker V @ $86.25 stop at $76.32
Short 2 units of Netflix ticker NFLX @ $30.35 stop at $29.43
Short 1 unit of Fedex ticker FDX @ $79.05 stop at $81.32

2 comments:

m said...

Good calls on USO and GLD. May I also recommend you check out SKF (again), SRS (again), PWE, DBA (soon). Commodities are going to continue upwards; everything else, especially financials and real estate, down.

"Direct quote from Nouriel Roubini's latest commentary. It's a damning endictment...wow. A direct accusation of deliberate reporting fraud.

"Most financial institutions are putting increasing numbers of assets in the illiquid buckets of Level 2 and Level 3 assets. While FASB 157 should prevent manipulation of the valuation of such illiquid assets, forbearance by the SEC, the Fed and other regulators allows a massive amount of fudging. An insider told me that in a major financial institution the approach is as follows now: top management decide in advance what the announced writedowns should be and folks dealing with the toxic/illiquid assets come up with totally ad hoc assumptions to make sure that such illiquid assets are valued consistently with the decided-in-advance amount of writedowns and losses. This is not earnings smoothing; this is active manipulation and falsification of financial results aimed at creating even more obfuscation of the true state of financial institutions. This obfuscation is actively abetted by the SEC, the Fed and all other regulators that are now in forbearance crisis management stage where the objective is to avoid at any cost anything that may trigger a financial meltdown. Thus, most of these earnings reports are not worth the paper they are written off."

Harleydog said...

thx, couldn't agree more and yes have not lost sight of either SKF or SRS.

HD