Friday, August 15, 2008

End of the Week

I have a very busy day today and wanted to get a quick note out.

There is lots of chatter in the credit markets regarding counter party solvency. Please remember what I have always said, that the bond and credit market guys (traders, not the hacks plying the phone with mortgages) are much smarter, risk sensitive and alert than the equity guys could ever hope to be. Pay attention to what is going on in the credit arena. What is that you may ask? We are at worse levels now than we were back in July and at any time previously for that matter.

Things are worsening, I wish they were not but they are. Strength in the market is to be sold, that means using rallies to get out. Do not listen to the shallow, hollow arguments on CNBC which are starting to sound more like pleas. This market is in VERY SERIOUS trouble.

Housekeeping notes;

I was stopped out of my LEH position at $17.15 as it gapped up this morning for a gain of $2.5 pts on 1 unit. I will definitely be back on board this one on the short side.

I was stopped out of my SLV position at $13 as it gapped down for a loss of $1.60 on 1 unit. Such is today's environment where everyone and their brother, banks brokers, hedge funds are all levered 30:1. Leverage upon leverage exacerbates any move in any direction.

I was also stopped out of GLD at $78 as it gapped down as well for a loss of $3.5 pts on 1 unit. Don't whine about why this is happening, don't argue with the tape. Save that for the shills on CNBC. What I do know is heavily leveraged players are getting wrung out of this market. Margin calls are abundant and when you cannot sell what you want to sell you sell what you can.

Good speculating to you all and never ever forget that "an investor is a speculator who made a mistake and will not admit it".

Open Positions:
Long 1 unit of Powershare Agriculture ticker DBA @ $34.50 stop $32.79
Long 2 units of XTO Energy ticker XTO @ $45.40 stop at $42.28
Long 1 unit Currencyshare SwissFranc ticker FXF @ $92.70 stop at $89.27
Short 1 unit Int'l Bus Machines ticker IBM @ $129.05 stop at $130.54
Short 2 units FedEx ticker FDX @ $87.70 stop at $91.18
Short 2 units of Apple ticker AAPL @ $178.05 stop at $182.76
Short 1 unit Blackrock ticker BLK @ $218.50 stop at $226.18

1 comment:

m said...

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