Thursday, August 7, 2008

Quick Update

My apologies for the lack of posts yesterday and today. Had some out of town friends in for golf yesterday and had the opportunity to go to Oakland Hills today for opening day of the PGA championship. For those that have not had a chance to get to a golf "major", please do if the chance presents itself. It is a great event.

I will be posting some charts tomorrow but suffice to say we have been on quite the roller coaster. I am not going to get into a rant but I can tell you this. I saw Freddie's miss but and I think more importantly I saw AIG's miss. What you should take away from this miss is that after all the earnings massaging downward, AIG can loss over $2 per share when the street average estimate was earnings of just north of 60 cents. So we have AIG not miss by a little but by a country mile.

This was not Bill and Burt's Insurance that missed but rather AIG. Sure, go ahead and dismiss it. But just keep it in the back of your mind the next time another pundit tells you our problems are over and you should buy stocks. You can train a bird to talk to if you repeat the same thing over and over to him again.

Remember also now that these earnings estimates are from the purportedly well connected, top tier, 'in the know' firms. I am gonna let you in on a secret, folks like Merrill Lynch have no clue what their own book looks like so how on God's green earth do you think they have an idea about AIG's? Are you still listening to these guys and their tip top recommendations. Like that auction rate preferred paper they were stuffing in client accounts claiming it was good as cash.

Like Gordon Gekko always said, a fool and his money are soon parted, that's assuming they were lucky enough to get together in the first place.

Housekeeping notes;

I was stopped out yesterday of my FXY position at $91.35 for a gain of $2.80 on 6 units.

I was stopped out of my ATPG position at $25.75 for a loss of $1.35 on 1 unit.

Good speculating to you all and never ever forget that "an investor is a speculator who made a mistake and will not admit it".

Open Positions:
Long 4 units Currencyshares Swiss Franc ticker FXF @ $97.70 stop at $93.82
Long 1 unit Ultrashort Dow ticker DXD@ $50.12 stop at $58.62
Long 1 unit Ultrashort QQQ ticker QID @ $37.05 stop at $42.87
Long 1 unit of Powershares Agriculture ticker DBA @ $34.50 stop $32.79
Long 1 unit Ultrashort 20yr Treasury ticker TBT @ $67.85 stop at $68.32
Long 1 unit of XTO Energy ticker XTO @ $43.85 stop at $39.62
Short 1 unit Int'l Bus Machines ticker IBM @ $129.05 stop at $131.54
Short 1 unit Sun TrustBank ticker STI @ $44.50 stop at $46.18
Short 2 units of Visa ticker V @ $71.30 stop at $75.16

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