Monday, August 4, 2008

Smorgasboard of Financial Charts

Given the action of the last 2 weeks I thought it might be worthwhile to have a look at what has transpired with the financials. The charts have my notes and thoughts on this.

Lehman Brothers (chart above).

Merrill Lynch (chart above).

Morgan Stanley (chart above) is a short position I put on late last week. I know I am supposed to put my rocks in the westtest bags as they break most easily but I couldn't help myself. Gotta pick on the weakest and sickest in the herd as that is natures way. That being said I will not stick around long to find out how wrong I may be.

Goldman Sachs (chart above)

Bank America (chart above)

Citigroup (chart above)
JP Morgan (chart above)

Wachovia (chart above). I will repeat once again..... 2 words GoldenWest Financial.

Wells Fargo (chart above). Warren Buffett's wallet hangs over the shorts heads on WFC.

Housekeeping notes;

I neglected to note that on Thursday last week I was stopped out of 1 unit of my long TBT trade at the open at 69.22 for a gain of about 1.25 pts. Not much but better than a surprise kick in the teeth party.

I was stopped out of my long SKF position on Friday at 119.85. for a flat trade. I had raised the stop as I did not want a profitable trade to become a loser.

One of the things I have learned, among the infinite number of things I haven't, is that earned and booked profits are to be held on to. Is is too easy to get overconfident and overtrade only to give those gains back. Defensive? Maybe. Just when I hear that the hedge fund manager Pausen who made billions shorting the CDO and mortgage market over the past few years is now setting up a fund to buy up these distresed assets. I wish him well, he is an extremely bright guy. That being said in a bear market you can have 1 of 3 positions. neutral, bearish or very bearish.

Good speculating to you all and never ever forget that "an investor is a speculator who made a mistake and will not admit it".

Open Positions:
Long 6 units Currencyshare Japanese Yen ticker FXY @ $88.55 stop at $91.40
Long 4 units Currencyshares Swiss Franc ticker FXF @ $97.70 stop at $93.82
Long 1 unit Ultrashort Dow ticker DXD@ $50.12 stop at $58.62
Long 1 unit Ultrashort QQQ ticker QID @ $37.05 stop at $42.87
Long 2 units Hecla Mining ticker HL @ $8.50 stop at $8.09
Long 2 units Ultrashort 20yr Treasury ticker TBT @ $67.85 stops at $68.32
Long 1 unit Ultrashort Financials ticker SKF @ $119.60 stop at $119.90
Short 1 unit Int'l Bus Machines ticker IBM @ $129.05 stop at $131.54
Short 1 unit Morgan Stanley ticker MS @ $40.35 stop at $43.43
Short 2 units of Visa ticker V @ $71.30 stop at $75.16

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