Wednesday, September 10, 2008

Chart on the TLT

As promised, here is the chart on the TLT's with some notes. I would like to go on record that I do recognize today's bar which could be a bullish portending inside day. That being said, I will not stick around long enough to get my head handed to me like others tend to do, nor will I pull a hedge fund special and average into this should it go against me. This looks to me like a nice broadening top which I know many technicians are shy to trade. I may be fooling myself but this strikes me as a hard trade which you all know I like.

A reader emailed me regarding blabbering Bob Pisani and his incessant pumping of Fedex today and their fuel cost savings. I counseled the reader to think about this the other way, his pumping is giving many out there ample opportunity to get short this ultra economically sensitive stock. I would humbly remind Mr. Pisani that it always helps to have orders and business so you can use the fuel you are gonna be saving oodles on. But why let a fact like that get in the way of a good pump, which by the way, he has done now no less than 5 times so far and its just past noon.

Good speculating to you all and never ever forget that "an investor is a speculator who made a mistake and will not admit it".

Open Positions:
Long 1 unit Ultrashort Lehman 20yr treasury ticker TBT @ $61.70 stop at TLT $98.41
Short 1 unit Fedex ticker FDX @ $87.25 stop $91.02
Short 1 unit Int'l Bus Machines ticker IBM @ $129.05 stop at $126.36
Short 2 units of Apple ticker AAPL @ $178.05 stop at $177.76
Short 2 units Salesforce.com ticker CRM @ $56.05 stop at $60.62

2 comments:

Anonymous said...

I think the timing is wrong because the flight to safety is not over. I might be wrong. Anyway you have a trading plan and it might turn to be a big winner.

Good luck

Harleydog said...

thx for the note, yes absolutely I could be early as flight to safety is not over. I truly believe flight to safety is at the shorter end of the curve. That being said hedge fund jockeys need performance and why not chase it and safety at the same time via the long end of the curve.
thx again,
HD