Wednesday, September 24, 2008

Getting Long Natty. via UNG

I hi-lited the natural gas chart, (ticker UNG) a couple of days ago suggested we watch it closely. The time has come for me to do more than watch as I am now long 1 unit of UNG at $35.60 with a stop at 31.89. We look to have broken a trend line of some significance. Also a small gap up from last week is still open which is a positive sign.

As my notes indicate, Plains Exploration ticker PXP (chart above) show an inverse head and shoulders having formed. I intend to get long 1 unit on a move thru $40.50. Take the time to punch up a weekly chart and you will see a nice looking hanging man candle on some volume which can be a signal of a bottom.

I have been watching my former friend ATP oil ticker ATPG (chart above) and want to get aboard this on a move, and more importantly a close above $23. The weekly view on ATPG also shows a hanging man on the candlestick chart.

Good speculating to you all and never forget that "an investor is a speculator who made a mistake and will not admit it".

Open Positions:
Long 2 units of Ultrashort S&P ticker SDS @ 61.75 stop at $57.69
Long 2 units of Ultrashort Dow ticker DXD @ $57.85 stop at $53.79
Long 1 unit of US Natural Gas Fund ticker UNG @ $ 35.70 stop at $31.89
Short 1 unit Int'l Bus Machines ticker IBM @ $129.05 stop at $126.36
Short 2 units of Apple ticker AAPL @ $178.05 stop at $177.76
Short 2 units ticker CRM @ $56.05 stop at $60.62
Long 2 units Hecla Mining ticker HL @ $5.20 stop at $3.89


m said...

Question: why do you spend so much energy harping on the polyannas? I agree with you that they're compromised beyond belief and unthinking, zombielike sheep (or at least paid to direct the sheep masses). I'm wondering why you don't internalize it, understand that they are what they are and they're not going to change, and then move on? Because the way you complain about them I get the feeling you think something can be done about them, or that you think the sheep can wake up.

I'm trying to apply this internalization principle in a wider scope. For awhile I harped on the politicians; then I internalized that in a social democracy with a fiat currency, as Bill Fleckenstein says, all roads point to inflation. Then I harped on the bailout, but now I'm internalizing that. I'm even internalizing, at least to a limited extent, hyperinflation, the loss of America's reserve status and AAA rating and superpower status, and our inevitable declining standard of living.

But even larger: I think the world is heading toward a huge war in the middle east within the next 3-5 years, $300+ oil, which I think has a great chance of causing a the breakdown of society - and there's also a significant chance of nuclear apocalpyse resulting from this. I'm struggling with internalizing THAT as it will involve huge changes to my life.

Harleydog said...

thx for the note. I do need to vent once in a while, if only for my own sanity.

bear markets do bring social disorder and chaos. Robert Prechter does a lot of socio-economic work regarding this.

thx for reading and I will concentrate on more productive things like finding profitable trades.


m said...

HD, sorry, I like all the stuff you write...INCLUDING your rants! - I just thought maybe it would be better for your own peace of mind to internalize their collective insanity and stupidity than get bent out of shape about them :) Just a thought!

Harleydog said...

no apologies necessary. appreciate the input and thx for reading.