Monday, September 15, 2008


I realise we are in a bear market.
I also realise that in a bear market all stocks go down, it is just a matter of degree.
That being said I cannot help but notice how crude has made new lows and yet the XLE has not.

This is the type of divergence, or tell that we watch for. Therefore based on this I am now long 1 unit of the Ultra Oil and Gas ticker DIG at $64.10 with a stop at $61.79

Are you watching all the so called capitalists, well at least those that remain (which you can probably count on one hand), now squirming exposed as the closet socialists they truly are, as the FED has told AIG to go pound salt and look elsewhere for money. Oh so funny what a losing position does to the capitalist in so many on Wall St., almost makes it disappear quicker than the lobster at the all-you-can-eat buffet !

I have no idea where this backbone in the FED has come from regarding it's rebuff of AIG. Maybe someone punched Paulson in the mouth and showed him what will happen if he continues down the bailout road. Or maybe he as a trick up his sleeve and this is a campaign of misinformation as he truly intends to bail them out and smash the shorts. (Fed meeting this week remember). This seems to have become a turn of the century wild west game of Texas no limit hold em' where the only law was the six-shooter on your hip. It is a shame it has come to this but you reap what you sow and this is the result.

Yeah, yeah, yeah I've heard it before AIG is different, as it effects main street. And yes I know they have a trillion, with a T, balance sheet. They're all different. Bear Stearns, Lehman, Wachovia, Wamu, GM, Chrysler, Boeing, Fannie, Freddie. Yup, they're all different, too special to fail, too important. I'll tell you what is consistent though... the HYPOCRISY !!

I do believe that we have reached a point of recognition in the market. The juncture where we move from denial to acceptance. Where the factual data is to the point where even one with a room temperature IQ (like myself) can figure it out.

All this with a Fed meeting tomorrow and here come the calls for a rate cut. And not just any rate cut, not 25 beeps but rather 50 or a 100. Yeah, that's it, give the crack head more, heck, just give him the whole stash and let him OD right there on the spot.

Good speculating to you all and never forget that "an investor is a speculator who made a mistake and will not admit it".

Open Positions:
Long 1 unit Ultra Oil and Gas ticker DIG @ $64.20 stop at $61.79
Long 1 unit Ultrashort Lehman 20yr treasury ticker TBT @ $61.70 stop at TLT $97.66
Short 1 unit Int'l Bus Machines ticker IBM @ $129.05 stop at $126.36
Short 2 units of Apple ticker AAPL @ $178.05 stop at $177.76
Short 2 units ticker CRM @ $56.05 stop at $60.62


m said...

This is probably why the Fed has suddenly grown a spine:

Hope it helps!

Flagg707 said...

"...Or maybe he as a trick up his sleeve and this is a campaign of misinformation as he truly intends to bail them out and smash the shorts..."

Looks like you were onto something there.

Harleydog said...


yes dollar may have stalled and reversed, massive, violent short covering rally.


Harleydog said...


good to hear from you ! You cannot rule out anything with these guys. I cannot convey in words my outrage, how they live with themselves is beyond me. Some sort of robotic conscience maybe or complete lack of one.
Hope all is well with you !