Friday, October 17, 2008

End of the Week

As my notes indicate, the Diamonds ticker DIA (chart above) look to be developing a pennant formation and while it is early yet it may be worth watching

The Spiders ticker SPY (chart above) look very similar to the Dow. Remember pennants and flags are continuation patterns and more often than not are resolved in the direction of the move prior.

The Naz could be forming a double bottom here but given the other 2 major indices it could be very suspect.

I am travelling today and will be away from my post. That said for those interested in some 'market valuation' reading material I would direct you over, once again to the boys over at Comstock and their weekly missives. Their post this week views the market as fairly valued and certainly not cheap as many pundits would have you believe.

Some may have noticed my "lack of activity' lately. To be blunt, there has not been much to do for to short the market at these levels would be virtual suicide given the propensity for multi-hundred point rallies by nostalgic stricken bulls, striving for the good ol' days. That said a break of the recent lows would spell much further weakness.

I would counsel anything thinking of getting long stocks here, on any significant basis, to remember how far the pendulum swung to the euphoric side and remember it can and most probably will swing as far on the despondency side. I say this as objectively as I can for to ignore this will most surely cost you dearly.


Good speculating to you all and never forget that "an investor is a speculator who made a mistake and will not admit it".

Open Positions:
Long 1 unit Japanese Yen ticker FXY at $97.15 stop at 96.72
Long 1 unit of Ultrashort 20yr TBond ticker TBT @ $60.10 stop at $60.19
Long 1 unit of Chicago Bridge/Iron ticker CBI @ $11.55 stop at $11.79
Short 1 units Salesforce.com ticker CRM @ $56.05 stop at $42.12

2 comments:

synthetik said...

Excellent post. It feels really weird being in cash, sold all my puts last Thursday and Friday.

Options are too expensive with a VIX of 70 or 80, and, as you said, it's just too difficult to see what's coming.

Do you see one more big rally and then a final fail, or more of a DOW <5000 depression print coming in 2009?

It seems like a great time to get long the yellow metal and try to hold onto what you've got. When it's time to go long again, my choice would be commodities and their servicers.

Harleydog said...

synthetic,

thx for reading, yes time to hang on to what we have.

I am watching DIG real close, OIH, UNG, USO and the like. I want to add to TBT but need to be patient. And yes gold is to be desired.

If the pendulum swings as far to the downside as it did to the upside, 400-500 on the S&P is reasonable.

HD