Monday, June 30, 2008

Ruger - RGR and Smith & Wesson - SWHC

Some of you may have been following with interest the recent Supreme court decision regarding the 2nd amendment, the right to keep and bear arms. Not withstanding your agreement or disagreement with the 5-4 decision in favour, it got me to thinking about the firearm stocks. The 2 I follow are Ruger ticker RGR and Smith & Wesson ticker SWHC.

The chart of Ruger (above) shows a long slow grind lower. Can you spell frustration, I bet the RGR longs sure can. The fact that a major unknown is now a known some of that may dissipate. I am prepared to take a punt here on 1 unit long of Ruger here at $7.10 as a decent risk reward position. I will place my stop at $6.72 I should think a firearm manufacturer could prosper in a bear market. Crime tends to rise as the economy weakens and people now have their right to protect themselves re-affirmed.

Likewise with Smith & Wesson (above), looks to have bounced ahead of Ruger and is now correcting that move. I am taking a punt on 1 unit long of SWHC here at $5.25 with a stop at $4.73


There 2 trades are not official positions in "the portfolio" but I am enamoured enough to throw them into my retirement account. I am in no way becoming an investor for as regular readers know all too well, anyone involved in the markets is a speculator and an investor is a speculator who made a mistake and will not admit the error of his ways and take his/her loss !!


Housekeeping notes;


Last week I indicated I was prepared to get longer the Market Vector Coal ticker KOL on a move above $57.10. Well, I was filled on a 2nd unit long of Market Vectors Coal $57.55 as the stock gapped up, opening today at $58.50. This leaves me with 2 units long of KOL now. I am also bumping my stop up to $53.37.


Good speculating to you all and always remember that "an investor is a speculator who made a mistake and will not admit it".



Open Positions:
Long 6 units Currencyshares Japanese Yen ticker FXY @ $88.55 stop at $91.40
Long 3 units Ultrashort Dow DXD@ $50.12 stops $62.22/60.49/58.62
Long 2 units Ultrashort Financials SKF @ $103.90 stops $139.46/134.67
Long 3 units Currencyshares Swiss Franc ticker FXF @ $97.35 stop at $93.82
Long 3 units Ultrashort ReEstate ticker SRS @ $88.95 stops $99.23/97.47/92.72
Long 1 unit US Gasoline Fund ticker UGA @ $60.35 stop at $62.54
Long 1 unit Ultrashort QQQ ticker QID @ $37.05 stop at $41.91
Long 1 unit Ultrashort S&P ticker SDS @ $57.20 stop $61.57
Long 2 units Hecla Mining ticker HL @ $8.50 stop at $7.16
Long 2 units Kinross Gold ticker KGC @ $18.93 stop at $17.56
Long 2 units Market Vector Coal ticker KOL @ $56.68 stop at $53.37
Long 1 unit Contango Oil ticker MCF @ $94.00 stop at $90.07
Short 1 units Daimler AG ticker DAI @ $86.20 stop at $70.12
Short 2 units Brinker Int'al ticker EAT @ $20.07 stop at $20.68
Short 2 units Darden ticker DRI @ $36.35 stops at $35.36
Short 2 units Lehman ticker LEH @ $43.70 stop at $28.32
Short 2 units Deutsche Bank ticker DB @ $117.03 stops at $105.26/99.32
Short 1 unit of Visa ticker V @ $86.25 stop at $85.36
Short 1 unit HSBC ticker HBC @ $83.23 stop at $83.52
Short 2 units of Netflix ticker NFLX @ $30.35 stop at $32.34
Short 1 unit of IBM ticker IBM @ $122.80 stop at $127.27

GE, Crude and Louise Yamada

You have to realize that technicians (like myself) tend to get used more often in bear markets than in bull simply because nobody seems to know what the heck is going on. The fundamentalists keep telling the public stocks are cheap, yet the market continues to fall. A few weeks back I remarked at the panic on pom pom TV and the ‘what do we do, what do we do’ mentality setting in on the cheerleading network as it fell and warned of more of this as the market condition worsened. Well , it was on full display on Thursday and Friday of this week .
On Friday CNBC had Louise Yamada on for a guest appearance, gotta go to the technicians when nothing makes sense right? Regular readers know I am a big fan of Louise and you must pay heed to her calls, whether they concur or diverge from your own.


That being said she is calling for the following targets on the major indices.
Dow – 10000
S&P – 1175
Naz – 2000
Rus – 600

USO- I pointed out that once $113 was taken out it would be off to the races for this one. Well it did and congrats to those that traded this one. I passed as it is definitely not for the faint of heart and I have a lot of positions which demand my time. I am also long UGA , KOL and now MCF so I do have some exposure there but then again as Jesse Livermore would say, when something is running you can never have a big enough position. To the energy skeptics who remark how sharply crude and USO sold off late Friday, I remind you that it closed at a new high.



Neflix – thar she blows as NFLX has broken loose. All we can do is sit back and let our winners run. For those still buying “the story” I would suggest 2 options; sell now at the $26.75 level (Friday close) or sell later around $18 or worse! Can’t happen you say, sure just like Crocs (CROX), just like Chipotle (CMG), just like Garmin (GRMN) sorry but the cavalier, laissez faire attitude of so many bulls is frightening and needs to be addressed sharply and candidly.





GE – regular readers remember my post on Jun 3 GE- Govern yourself accordingly in which I warned of the implications of GE breaking $31 on the monthly chart. My comments on the chart that day read like this,


“Do you really believe the cheerleaders on pom pom TV, which is owned by GE, would dare tell you anything negative on GE? Try this one on, the next stop for this bus is the 19 level and lord forbid that level gets broken.”


The post gendered some, shall I say, colorful email disagreeing with my assessment. That should have been clue enough to get heavily short but given my large short position in most of the major indices I did not. Well, I can tell you that the colorful GE mail has slowed to less than a tricle. I am not picking on those that emailed me to disagree just pointing out that we should fall in love with a spouse, a sporting team, a pet but never an investment vehicle. Clouds the judgement.


I am back harping on GE because the month of June has come to a close and GE has closed at $26.26 so we not only have a monthly violation but a close there. Now pom pom TV can bring out all sorts of shameless pundits like Vince Farrell who can argue about GE’s yield compared to 10yr treasuries but it all matters not a whit. I cannot stress strongly enough how negative this technical development bodes for the stock and more importantly the Dow as GE is a major component and institutional darling. Yes those same institutions who are loaded to the gill with CDO’s /CLO’s and RMBS paper own GE. Real speculating mavericks aren’t they those hedge and pension fund valets.


One final note on GE, as my notes on the chart indicate it is a possibility that the formation is a massive measured bear move. Something to keep in mind next time Mr. Farrell and the other GE devotees tell you how cheap GE is... it could get much much cheaper !







Prophet still has not corrected the issue with the DB chart so I am using one from Big Charts.

Deutsche Bank - the issue with the DB chart from Prophet is still erroneous so I am posting the Big Charts version with jives with other sites.


Hopefully the 'credit crisis is over’ crowd has been thoroughly discredited but just in case they haven’t I suggest you take a peek at the following charts, the XLF, $BKX, KBE, KRE as all are making new lows. Some may say AHA !! you purposely omitted the $XBD on the list. Well yes it hasn’t made a new low, but given that the Wall St. firms are simply hedge funds in disguise and the investing public just hasn’t caught on yet. They soon will. They soon will.


On June 11 when DB was trading for about $95 and I, while short the stock, I posted that DB was headed for $44 based on a massive head and shoulders formation. The tape was and is telling me that the credit crisis is no where near being over. The news seems to be now coming out to justify that conclusion. Once again the news conforms to the tape. Please stop trading the news as it will lead you astray. The tape rarely does and only for temporary bouts if ever!





Tesoro – I haven’t posted on TSO on the blog, but tend to watch it as I am fond of watching many stocks in any sector I am fond of. In this case, liking the refiners, I watch VLO, HOC, TSO, SUN and of course longtime associate FTO. That being said, regular readers know that I have been bullish on FTO yet cognizant of the head and shoulders looming above on it's chart. Turning my attention to TSO A similar double top existed, the mid point low was broken and its target was attained. My antennae are raised on this one as it may be ahead in the cycle.


For those who don't know Herb Sandler and his wife built Golden West from the ground up and sold it to Wachovia. He had the following to say in the WSJ recently regarding Wachovia and their issues;


"Forget whether you didn't like the Golden West deal. You have a serious list of problems," Sandler told the Journal. Sandler pointed to litany of other bad business decisions at Wachovia, including a telemarketing snafu that saw the bank hurt its reputation by selling customer names to telemarketing firms, as more pertinent factors behind the bank's recent decision to oust CEO Ken Thompson. He also pointed to the fact that the Golden West portfolio is performing well in comparison to peers, with charge-offs at just 0.79 percent by the end of the first quarter.He also suggested that Wachovia was "over-reserving for losses that will never come."



You truly cannot make this stuff up. I had to read it twice as well to make sure I read it correctly. Yup, telemarketing snafu that releases customers names is much more detrimental to financial existence than the 7 foot monster Dr. Frankenstein created being at the door. Fascinating the psychology of it all. Listen, the Sandler's saw the sucker at the poker, (Ken Thompson) and took advantage of him and Wachovia shareholders. I suggest Mr Sandler and his wife leave well enough alone as few east of Nevada know their names and should now just sail off into the sunset with their billions and just leave it at that. Leave the pleading for mercy and attempts to repair public image to the more professional grovelers like Maestro Greenspan.

Good speculating to you all and always remember that "an investor is a speculator who made a mistake and will not admit it".

Friday, June 27, 2008

Ultrashort Real Estate - SRS update.

Reader m posted a question on the ultrashort real estate ticker SRS. As you know I am long the SRS and prefer using trailing stops as to timing the top with a straight sell, realising that markets can rise or fall much further than we ever expect.

That being said I do use targets as a compass for where we may be headed. The SRS (chart above) shows a nice bull wedge that we broke out of a few weeks ago. The widest part of the wedge is worth about $53.5 pts. Given the break out occurred at roughly 87 this would give us an approximate target of $140.50. (87 +53.5)

I hope this helps and if it sounds and looks simple, it is. Which is why I like it.

Hat tip to Mike Panzner over at Financial Armageddon who brought the following article to my attention. Mike's site, which is carries the same name as his best selling book, is must reading as he covers all angles of the markets and is a savvy market veteran. Regarding his book, if you haven't read it, please do as it is comforting knowing there were some who clearly saw the current debacle coming. Reading it know would seems almost like an event by event account of current market goings on. I cannot recommend it highly enough.

The article entitled Suit Claims UBS Misled Investors, is written by Gretchen Morgenson formerly of Wealth magazine and now at the NY Times talks about the auction rate securities market and how UBS foisted the crap onto unsuspecting clients. Please read it as it will make you re-consider your faith in Wall St. recommendations. But hey, I am just a sarcastic, miserable cynic.

Housekeeping notes;

I was filled another unit long of Currencyshares Swiss Franc ticker FXF at $98.30 leaving me with 3 units long.

Good speculating to you all and always remember that "an investor is a speculator who made a mistake and will not admit it".





Open Positions:
Long 6 units Currencyshares Japanese Yen ticker FXY @ $88.55 stop at $91.40
Long 3 units Ultrashort Dow DXD@ $50.12 stops $62.22/60.49/58.62
Long 2 units Ultrashort Financials SKF @ $103.90 stops $139.46/134.67
Long 3 units Currencyshares Swiss Franc ticker FXF @ $97.35 stop at $93.82
Long 3 units Ultrashort ReEstate ticker SRS @ $88.95 stops $99.23/97.47/92.72
Long 1 unit US Gasoline Fund ticker UGA @ $60.35 stop at $62.54
Long 1 unit Ultrashort QQQ ticker QID @ $37.05 stop at $41.91
Long 1 unit Ultrashort S&P ticker SDS @ $57.20 stop $61.57
Long 2 units Hecla Mining ticker HL @ $8.50 stop at $7.16
Long 2 units Kinross Gold ticker KGC @ $18.93 stop at $17.56
Long 1 unit Market Vector Coal ticker KOL @ $55.70 stop at $52.27
Long 1 unit Contango Oil ticker MCF @ $94.00 stop at $90.07
Short 1 units Daimler AG ticker DAI @ $86.20 stop at $70.12
Short 2 units Brinker Int'al ticker EAT @ $20.07 stop at $20.68
Short 2 units Darden ticker DRI @ $36.35 stops at $35.36
Short 2 units Lehman ticker LEH @ $43.70 stop at $28.32
Short 2 units Deutsche Bank ticker DB @ $117.03 stops at $105.26/99.32
Short 1 unit of Visa ticker V @ $86.25 stop at $85.36
Short 1 unit HSBC ticker HBC @ $83.23 stop at $83.52
Short 2 units of Netflix ticker NFLX @ $30.35 stop at $32.34
Short 1 unit of IBM ticker IBM @ $122.80 stop at $127.27

Defcon 1 warning on Google - GOOG

I have no position in Google ticker GOOG (chart above) but anyone who does I would suggest minding the gap just below current levels. It may or may not hold but if you're long (which I am not) I would counsel extreme caution and the judicious use of stops here. I am in no way cerebral enough to evaluate Google's business but the chart is something I can. WE are into the gap with today's trading and as every reader of this blog knows, it is paramount to live to trade another day. Anyone long GOOG should be on Defcon 1 level of readiness. I do hope I am wrong, but given this market discretion is advised.


Good speculating to you all and always remember that "an investor is a speculator who made a mistake and will not admit it".

Long Contango Oil and Gas - MCF

I want to touch on a stock I have not mentioned in a long time and for good reason. That being Contango Oil and Gas ticker MCF. I talked about getting long thru $40 but never acted on it. Big mistake on my part but such is trading. I am back at this due the beautiful looking bull flag flying on it !

We have this occurring on light volume which is wonderful. I am getting long 1 unit here at $93.90, in the middle of the flag (no man's land) with the intention to get even longer when the $95.20 level is taken out.

Do yourself a favor, do not look at a 1 yr or 2yr chart on MCF as it will scare you aware sure as shootin', which is exactly why it is headed higher in very short order. A truly beautful looking chart.


Good speculating to you all and always remember that "an investor is a speculator who made a mistake and will not admit it".





Open Positions:
Long 6 units Currencyshares Japanese Yen ticker FXY @ $88.55 stop at $91.40
Long 3 units Ultrashort Dow DXD@ $50.12 stops $62.22/60.49/58.62
Long 2 units Ultrashort Financials SKF @ $103.90 stops $139.46/134.67
Long 2 units Currencyshares Swiss Franc ticker FXF @ $96.83 stop at $93.82
Long 3 units Ultrashort ReEstate ticker SRS @ $88.95 stops $99.23/97.47/92.72
Long 1 unit US Gasoline Fund ticker UGA @ $60.35 stop at $62.54
Long 1 unit Ultrashort QQQ ticker QID @ $37.05 stop at $41.91
Long 1 unit Ultrashort S&P ticker SDS @ $57.20 stop $61.57
Long 2 units Hecla Mining ticker HL @ $8.50 stop at $7.16
Long 2 units Kinross Gold ticker KGC @ $18.93 stop at $17.56
Long 1 unit Market Vector Coal ticker KOL @ $55.70 stop at $52.27
Long 1 unit Contango Oil ticker MCF @ $94.00 stop at $90.07
Short 1 units Daimler AG ticker DAI @ $86.20 stop at $70.12
Short 2 units Brinker Int'al ticker EAT @ $20.07 stop at $20.68
Short 2 units Darden ticker DRI @ $36.35 stops at $35.36
Short 2 units Lehman ticker LEH @ $43.70 stop at $28.32
Short 2 units Deutsche Bank ticker DB @ $117.03 stops at $105.26/99.32
Short 1 unit of Visa ticker V @ $86.25 stop at $85.36
Short 1 unit HSBC ticker HBC @ $83.23 stop at $83.52
Short 2 units of Netflix ticker NFLX @ $30.35 stop at $32.34
Short 1 unit of IBM ticker IBM @ $122.80 stop at $127.27

Watching Coal and the Swiss Franc

I want to counsel everyone out there, McCain, Obama, everyone..... stop being so negative. Don't you realise it is a self fulfilling prophecy and we are talking ourselves into the malaise. I caught a piece from Sam Zell where he commented basically that we are talking ourselves into the toilet. Now don't get me wrong Sam Zell is the real estate guru, just as Blackstone (BX) as he unloaded his holdings to them at the top of the market.

Remember my comment that when you play poker, look around the table for the sucker or mark if you prefer, and if you don't see him/her leave, as you are the sucker. Too bad the hedge fund valets think they are experts at anything that trades. Right Cerberus ?

My point is that NOT talking about negative economic circumstances will surely make it go away right Mr. Zell. I respectfully disagree and believe this is the same type of thinking that got us into this mess. Ignore the warning signs. The sleet is falling, the temperature is dropping, your young children and beautiful spouse are in the vehicle and you are speeding around the corner. I have an idea, ignore those obvious facts and think about the wonderful tires you have on the vehicle, how cars these days handle much better. Yup keep those rose colored glasses on.


Regarding the Market Vectors Coal ticker KOL, I am adjusting my trigger to a break above $57.10 to add the 2nd unit long.

Keep your eye on the Currencyshares Swiss Franc, 98.25 to be precise as this is my trigger on a 3rd unit.

Housekeeping notes;

In all the action of recent days I neglected to note I was stopped out of half (1 unit) short of my Darden short at $33.60 for a gain of $2.75 pts. as the boyz jammed the stock up on very good earnings, which no doubt is comfort to the consume/restaurant bulls. My opinion is that that gap up was a gift to get out and my guess is the smart money did so as it is giving much of it back.

I was stopped out of my Frontier Oil position at $23.45 for a loss of $1.75 on 2 pts. Why do I keep banging my head against this wall. I can assure you when I walk away from this one it will run like Secretariat.

I am adjusting some stops on some positions which have become extremely profitable as follow;

DXD - new stops at 3 units long at $62.22/60.49/58.62
SKF - new stops at 2 units long at $139.46/134.67
SRS - new stops on 3 units long at $99.23/97.47/92.72
QID - new stop on 1 unit long at $41.91
EAT - new stop on 2 units short at $20.68
NFLX - new stop on 2 units short at $32.34



Good speculating to you all and always remember that "an investor is a speculator who made a mistake and will not admit it".

Open Positions:
Long 6 units Currencyshares Japanese Yen ticker FXY @ $88.55 stop at $91.40
Long 3 units Ultrashort Dow DXD@ $50.12 stops $62.22/60.49/58.62
Long 2 units Ultrashort Financials SKF @ $103.90 stops $139.46/134.67
Long 2 units Currencyshares Swiss Franc ticker FXF @ $96.83 stop at $93.82
Long 3 units Ultrashort ReEstate ticker SRS @ $88.95 stops $99.23/97.47/92.72
Long 1 unit US Gasoline Fund ticker UGA @ $60.35 stop at $62.54
Long 1 unit Ultrashort QQQ ticker QID @ $37.05 stop at $41.91
Long 1 unit Ultrashort S&P ticker SDS @ $57.20 stop $61.57
Long 2 units Hecla Mining ticker HL @ $8.50 stop at $7.16
Long 2 units Kinross Gold ticker KGC @ $18.93 stop at $17.56
Long 1 unit Market Vector Coal ticker KOL @ $55.70 stop at $52.27
Short 1 units Daimler AG ticker DAI @ $86.20 stop at $70.12
Short 2 units Brinker Int'al ticker EAT @ $20.07 stop at $20.68
Short 2 units Darden ticker DRI @ $36.35 stops at $35.36
Short 2 units Lehman ticker LEH @ $43.70 stop at $28.32
Short 2 units Deutsche Bank ticker DB @ $117.03 stops at $105.26/99.32
Short 1 unit of Visa ticker V @ $86.25 stop at $85.36
Short 1 unit HSBC ticker HBC @ $83.23 stop at $83.52
Short 2 units of Netflix ticker NFLX @ $30.35 stop at $32.34
Short 1 unit of IBM ticker IBM @ $122.80 stop at $127.27

Thursday, June 26, 2008

Coal, Kinross Gold and Frontier....again !

Funny how in a bull market all pullbacks are to be bought when the stock is named Apple or Google, or Dell bit in a commodity bull market the same doesn't apply. Sorta like selective application of the rules maybe. Could it be they (TV gurus and the like) plain old don't like or understand a commodity bull? Either way the Coal chart (above) looks to be in bull mode. Yesterdays hanging man candle caught my eye and is reminiscent of the bar on June 4. Coincidence or not, both occurred on heavy volume and I am enamored of this picture.

I am getting long 1 unit of the Market Vectors Coal ticker KOL at $55.60 with a sharp eye to adding a 2nd unit on a move above $57.60. which would take out the high of that hanging man.


Kinross Gold (above) looks like it wants to run. I have highlighted a larger possible bull flag formation of a 3 month duration, the topside of which is under assault today by the gold bulls. A move above the 22 level would be a nice comfort to this trader.


Are you sick of this one yet? Frontier Oil is a wonderful heavy oil refiner I, for some reason, have a crush on. Call me crazy, believe me many have called me worse, yet I see a double bottom forming knowing full well a larger double top could loom above. The high volume run up in May and the lower volume pullback here in June has my antennae up.
I am getting long 2 units here of Frontier ticker FTO at $25.15 with a stop at $23.46. Maybe this venture will be different than the last few.


Housekeeping notes;


I was filled on a 2nd unit long of the Currencyshares Swiss Franc ticker FXF at $97.30. Please remember that I am on alert for the $98.25 to be taken out on the upside to add a 3rd unit long.


Good speculating to you all and always remember that "an investor is a speculator who made a mistake and will not admit it".


Open Positions:
Long 6 units Currencyshares Japanese Yen ticker FXY @ $88.55 stop at $91.40
Long 3 units Ultrashort Dow DXD@ $50.12 stops at DIA $130.26/127.34/126.42
Long 2 units Ultrashort Financials SKF @ $103.90 stops at XLF $26.72/25.54
Long 2 units Currencyshares Swiss Franc ticker FXF @ $96.83 stop at $93.82
Long 3 units Ultrashort ReEstate ticker SRS @ $88.95 stops at IYR $71.14/70.21/68.36
Long 1 unit US Gasoline Fund ticker UGA @ $60.35 stop at $62.54
Long 1 unit Ultrashort QQQ ticker QID @ $37.05 stop at QQQQ $49.56
Long 1 unit Ultrashort S&P ticker SDS @ $57.20 stop at SPY $141.54
Long 2 units Hecla Mining ticker HL @ $8.50 stop at $7.16
Long 2 units Kinross Gold ticker KGC @ $18.93 stop at $17.56
Long 1 unit Market Vector Coal ticker KOL @ $55.70 stop at $52.27
Long 2 units of Frontier Oil ticker FTO @ $25.20 stop at $23.46
Short 1 units Daimler AG ticker DAI @ $86.20 stop at $70.12
Short 2 units Brinker Int'al ticker EAT @ $20.07 stop at $22.44
Short 2 units Darden ticker DRI @ $36.35 stops at $35.36/33.54
Short 2 units Lehman ticker LEH @ $43.70 stop at $28.32
Short 2 units Deutsche Bank ticker DB @ $117.03 stops at $105.26/99.32
Short 1 unit of Visa ticker V @ $86.25 stop at $85.36
Short 1 unit HSBC ticker HBC @ $83.23 stop at $83.52
Short 1 unit of Netflix ticker NFLX @ $31.10 stop at $34.64
Short 1 unit of IBM ticker IBM @ $122.80 stop at $127.27

Couple of Items

How dare Goldman Sachs downgrade Citi and GM 3 days before the end of the quarter. The conviction sell list mind you as opposed to just the sell list. I wonder what the reaction would be if they upgraded them ! The wailing and gnashing of teeth....oh the irony of it all !



I notice the house passed the 300 billion bailout bill by a veto proof margin. I would counsel and real estate shorts, of which I am, to not panic. This bill will not only NOT help housing it will exacerbate the problems, GUARANTEED !! The fighting over the spoils by special interests inside the house and senate will ensure most of the money will be wasted and misdirected to put it mildly. It's actually quite simple, if you're long Fannie or Freddie or believe in the FHA this is the panacea the market needs.

Funny how simple the solution is to the housing problems. Let the market work it out plain and simple. Always has, always will and to tinker and manipulate only extends and exacerbates the problems.

I have been reading some items where the bulls are arguing that there is enormous amounts of cash sitting on the sidelines waiting and looking to jump into the market. These same bulls are arguing that we are at very oversold levels and you need to buy. I would instead counsel EXTREME CAUTION as panics and I don't use the term loosely crashes occur from very oversold levels. Do not fall victim to the hope and pray crowd.

Some charts of interest coming a little later today.



Good speculating to you all and always remember that "a speculator is a trader who made a mistake and will not admit it".



Open Positions:
Long 6 units Currencyshares Japanese Yen ticker FXY @ $88.55 stop at $91.40
Long 3 units Ultrashort Dow DXD@ $50.12 stops at DIA $130.26/127.34/126.42
Long 2 units Ultrashort Financials SKF @ $103.90 stops at XLF $26.72/25.54
Long 1 unit Currencyshares Swiss Franc ticker FXF @ $96.25 stop at $93.82
Long 3 units Ultrashort ReEstate ticker SRS @ $88.95 stops at IYR $71.14/70.21/68.36
Long 1 unit US Gasoline Fund ticker UGA @ $60.35 stop at $62.54
Long 1 unit Ultrashort QQQ ticker QID @ $37.05 stop at QQQQ $49.56
Long 1 unit Ultrashort S&P ticker SDS @ $57.20 stop at SPY $141.54
Long 2 units Hecla Mining ticker HL @ $8.50 stop at $7.16
Long 2 units Kinross Gold ticker KGC @ $18.93 stop at $17.56
Short 1 units Daimler AG ticker DAI @ $86.20 stop at $70.12
Short 2 units Brinker Int'al ticker EAT @ $20.07 stop at $22.44
Short 2 units Darden ticker DRI @ $36.35 stops at $35.36/33.54
Short 2 units Lehman ticker LEH @ $43.70 stop at $28.32
Short 2 units Deutsche Bank ticker DB @ $117.03 stops at $105.26/99.32
Short 1 unit of Visa ticker V @ $86.25 stop at $85.36
Short 1 unit HSBC ticker HBC @ $83.23 stop at $83.52
Short 1 unit of Netflix ticker NFLX @ $31.10 stop at $34.64
Short 1 unit of IBM ticker IBM @ $122.80 stop at $127.27

Tuesday, June 24, 2008

Diamonds, Spiders, Crude and Neflix - NFLX

The Diamonds, ticker DIA (chart above), which is the tracking stock of the Dow show a bear flag I had previously mentioned as worth watching. Well, it has broken to the downside convincingly. I would think $110 would be a very reasonable target to watch for on this.

The Spiders ticker SPY (chart above) show a picture that is slowly but surely deteriorating. The bulls had better hope and pray that all we do is test the Jan/Mar lows. Unfortunately I fear worse lies in store for this index.

Crude continues onward and upward. Please tune out the bubble heads on television as they would not let something as simple as the facts of supply and demand get in the way of a good show of demagoguery.

Housekeeping notes;

I was filled on a 2nd unit short of Netflix yesterday at $29.70 as NFLX has now broken the lower boundary of that flag and am now short 2 units. I would counsel the Neflix longs to be very careful with this one as the break of this pattern bodes much pain.


Good speculating to you all.
Open Positions:
Long 6 units Currencyshares Japanese Yen ticker FXY @ $88.55 stop at $91.40
Long 3 units Ultrashort Dow DXD@ $50.12 stops at DIA $130.26/127.34/126.42
Long 2 units Ultrashort Financials SKF @ $103.90 stops at XLF $26.72/25.54
Long 1 unit Currencyshares Swiss Franc ticker FXF @ $96.25 stop at $93.82
Long 3 units Ultrashort ReEstate ticker SRS @ $88.95 stops at IYR $71.14/70.21/68.36
Long 1 unit US Gasoline Fund ticker UGA @ $60.35 stop at $62.54
Long 1 unit Ultrashort QQQ ticker QID @ $37.05 stop at QQQQ $49.56
Long 1 unit Ultrashort S&P ticker SDS @ $57.20 stop at SPY $141.54
Long 2 units Hecla Mining ticker HL @ $8.50 stop at $7.16
Long 2 units Kinross Gold ticker KGC @ $18.93 stop at $17.56
Short 1 units Daimler AG ticker DAI @ $86.20 stop at $70.12
Short 2 units Brinker Int'al ticker EAT @ $20.07 stop at $22.44
Short 2 units Darden ticker DRI @ $36.35 stops at $35.36/33.54
Short 2 units Lehman ticker LEH @ $43.70 stop at $28.32
Short 2 units Deutsche Bank ticker DB @ $117.03 stops at $105.26/99.32
Short 1 unit of Visa ticker V @ $86.25 stop at $85.36
Short 1 unit HSBC ticker HBC @ $83.23 stop at $83.52
Short 2 units of Netflix ticker NFLX @ $30.35 stop at $34.64
Short 1 unit of IBM ticker IBM @ $122.80 stop at $127.27

Monday, June 23, 2008

Start of the Week

I am reading about how the bond insurers are in discussions with banks to cancel $125 billion in bond insurance. There are not enough adjectives to describe the situation there but please don't worry everything is fine, the credit problems are contained. United furlowing 900 pilots. Goldman reducing banking staff by 10% but please don't worry, everything is fine, the economy is resilient.

I cannot stress how important the financial sector activity is to the overall market. What is going on in the financials demands your attention. I believe the problems there are not 'bottoming' and that 'things are getting better', but rather problems are getting worse. The alt-A pay option neg am mortgage problem is next with commercial real estate right next to it. You think banks will be lending in this environment? If so guess again.

That being said, how the financials go so goes the overall market and slowly but surely the short bus riding equity managers of the planet are coming to this realisation. As this process accelerates the results will be shocking. But again don't worry, Lieberman and Company are going to flush out the speculators from the energy markets, thereby fixing the 'energy bubble' making everything fine once again.

For those counting on the Saudi's increasing production to save the day, I can only say I wish it were true as they are no different than the U.S financials in their disclosures. It makes perfect sense that the same people who feel the financials are bottoming, the economy is resilient, the credit crisis is in it's late innings, are the same people who believe a country who will not let any independent agency audit it's petroleum reserves can increase production and save the day. Better to believe in the tooth fairy and Santa Clause as those 2 are much more plausible ideals.

Good speculating to you all.

Open Positions:
Long 6 units Currencyshares Japanese Yen ticker FXY @ $88.55 stop at $91.40
Long 3 units Ultrashort Dow DXD@ $50.12 stops at DIA $130.26/127.34/126.42
Long 2 units Ultrashort Financials SKF @ $103.90 stops at XLF $26.72/25.54
Long 1 unit Currencyshares Swiss Franc ticker FXF @ $96.25 stop at $93.82
Long 3 units Ultrashort ReEstate ticker SRS @ $88.95 stops at IYR $71.14/70.21/68.36
Long 1 unit US Gasoline Fund ticker UGA @ $60.35 stop at $62.54
Long 1 unit Ultrashort QQQ ticker QID @ $37.05 stop at QQQQ $49.56
Long 1 unit Ultrashort S&P ticker SDS @ $57.20 stop at SPY $141.54
Long 2 units Hecla Mining ticker HL @ $8.50 stop at $7.16
Long 2 units Kinross Gold ticker KGC @ $18.93 stop at $17.56
Short 1 units Daimler AG ticker DAI @ $86.20 stop at $70.12
Short 2 units Brinker Int'al ticker EAT @ $20.07 stop at $22.44
Short 2 units Darden ticker DRI @ $36.35 stops at $35.36/33.54
Short 2 units Lehman ticker LEH @ $43.70 stop at $28.32
Short 2 units Deutsche Bank ticker DB @ $117.03 stops at $105.26/99.32
Short 1 unit of Visa ticker V @ $86.25 stop at $85.36
Short 1 unit HSBC ticker HBC @ $83.23 stop at $83.52
Short 1 unit of Netflix ticker NFLX @ $31.10 stop at $34.64
Short 1 unit of IBM ticker IBM @ $122.80 stop at $127.27

Sunday, June 22, 2008

The Swiss Franc Currencyshares - FXF

I took the day off on Friday. It felt really good to do it. Needed to re-charge my batteries and smell the flowers, so to speak ! You think the markets could tread some water while I get some R & R. Not a chance as all hell seemed to break loose. Regular readers as fully aware of my thoughts on what is transpiring in the markets. My only comments further to that is prepare yourself for what is unfolding, as it will EXTREMELY unpleasant and ruthless to those that don't and prefer to delude themselves. It is not about who's right and who's wrong but something much larger, like financial prosperity and in many cases basic financial survival.

For those that are new to this blog I encourage you to read prior posts on this site as they contain some valuable information. I doubly encourage you to stop by the Must Visit sites I have listed as on the right side of this blog, it is called that for a reason! You will get unbiased, insightful, well thought out observations others are afraid of, ignorant of or simple don't want you to know.


I want to bring your attention back to an existing position I am holding the Currencyshares Swiss Franc, ticker FXF (chart above). We have been in a corrective pattern for the better part of 3 months. As my notes indicate, It is my intention to get longer here on a move above the 97.25 and 98.25 levels as it seems the US dollar rally looks to be losing steam as it has corrected it's severely oversold level.


Housekeeping notes;


I neglected to note that I was filled on a 2nd unit long of Hecla right before the close on Wednesday past. I had noted previously that I would get long that 2nd unit on the move above 8.60 which the stock did just before the close.


Friday, while out, I was stopped out of my 2 unit long position in Clean Energy CLNE at $12.30 for an $0.85 loss on 2 units. Loss management my dear friends is what the game is all about and anyone who tells you otherwise is heading for insolvency, and you should do the opposite of what they tell you ! Just ask Nick Leeson, John Meriweather, and Jerome Kerviel if you disagree.

Good speculating to you all.


Open Positions:
Long 6 units Currencyshares Japanese Yen ticker FXY @ $88.55 stop at $91.40
Long 3 units Ultrashort Dow DXD@ $50.12 stops at DIA $130.26/127.34/126.42
Long 2 units Ultrashort Financials SKF @ $103.90 stops at XLF $26.72/25.54
Long 1 unit Currencyshares Swiss Franc ticker FXF @ $96.25 stop at $93.82
Long 3 units Ultrashort ReEstate ticker SRS @ $88.95 stops at IYR $71.14/70.21/68.36
Long 1 unit US Gasoline Fund ticker UGA @ $60.35 stop at $62.54
Long 1 unit Ultrashort QQQ ticker QID @ $37.05 stop at QQQQ $49.56
Long 1 unit Ultrashort S&P ticker SDS @ $57.20 stop at SPY $141.54
Long 2 units Hecla Mining ticker HL @ $8.50 stop at $7.16
Long 2 units Kinross Gold ticker KGC @ $18.93 stop at $17.56
Short 1 units Daimler AG ticker DAI @ $86.20 stop at $70.12
Short 2 units Brinker Int'al ticker EAT @ $20.07 stop at $22.44
Short 2 units Darden ticker DRI @ $36.35 stops at $35.36/33.54
Short 2 units Lehman ticker LEH @ $43.70 stop at $28.32
Short 2 units Deutsche Bank ticker DB @ $117.03 stops at $105.26/99.32
Short 1 unit of Visa ticker V @ $86.25 stop at $85.36
Short 1 unit HSBC ticker HBC @ $83.23 stop at $83.52
Short 1 unit of Netflix ticker NFLX @ $31.10 stop at $34.64
Short 1 unit of IBM ticker IBM @ $122.80 stop at $127.27

Thursday, June 19, 2008

Getting Short IBM while Neflix -NFLX is on Thin Ice

Neflix is on very thin ice here and should $29.75 give way all hell could break loose. I am adding to my short position on any move below $29.75.


Well, I couldn't help myself. I know I need another position to follow like I need a hole in the head but the head and shoulders formation on IBM is far too compelling. IBM has broken the neckline of $123 and I am short 1 unit at $122.90 with a stop at $127.27

Good speculating to you all.


Open Positions:

Long 6 units Currencyshares Japanese Yen ticker FXY @ $88.55 stop at $91.40
Long 3 units Ultrashort Dow DXD@ $50.12 stops at DIA $130.26/127.34/126.42
Long 2 units Ultrashort Financials SKF @ $103.90 stops at XLF $26.72/25.54
Long 1 unit Currencyshares Swiss Franc ticker FXF @ $96.25 stop at $93.82
Long 3 units Ultrashort ReEstate ticker SRS @ $88.95 stops at IYR $71.14/70.21/68.36
Long 1 unit US Gasoline Fund ticker UGA @ $60.35 stop at $62.54
Long 1 unit Ultrashort QQQ ticker QID @ $37.05 stop at QQQQ $49.56
Long 1 unit Ultrashort S&P ticker SDS @ $57.20 stop at SPY $141.54
Long 1 unit Hecla Mining ticker HL @ $8.30 stop at $7.16
Long 2 units Kinross Gold ticker KGC @ $18.93 stop at $17.56
Long 2 units Clean Energy ticker CLNE @ $13.15 stop at $12.36
Short 1 units Daimler AG ticker DAI @ $86.20 stop at $70.12
Short 2 units Brinker Int'al ticker EAT @ $20.07 stop at $22.44
Short 2 units Darden ticker DRI @ $36.35 stops at $35.36/33.54
Short 2 units Lehman ticker LEH @ $43.70 stop at $28.32
Short 2 units Deutsche Bank ticker DB @ $117.03 stops at $105.26/99.32
Short 1 unit of Visa ticker V @ $86.25 stop at $85.36
Short 1 unit HSBC ticker HBC @ $83.23 stops at $83.52
Short 1 unit of Netflix ticker NFLX @ $31.10 stop at $34.64
Short 1 unit of IBM ticker IBM @ $122.80 stop at $127.27

Wednesday, June 18, 2008

IBM - head and shoulders.

I had some problems with blogger today and not being the most technologically savvy cat around I accidentally deleted my morning post entitled What's with the Doom and Gloom. It is just as well as I am going to cut back on the rants and focus my mental capital on more important things such as the charts and as rising equity balance in my trading accounts.

That being said I want to bring your attention to an institutional darling IBM (chart above). I always watch what the "nifty 50" are doing as it is just a matter of habit and IBM is one of these. Notice the attractive head and shoulders position formed with a clearly visible neckline evident at $123. Now, I have a healthy short in the Dow via my 3 unit long position in the Ultrashort Dow ticker DXD.
Another institutional favourite is General Electric ticker GE (chart above) which I commented quite negatively on in my post GE Govern Yourself Accordingly in which I outlined the bearish technical case on GE's pattern. Nothing has changed in that regard and the activity of late has only solidified the bear case on GE. GE broke $31 which looks like small potatoes on the daily (above) but is mucho significant on the monthly.
Do you notice anything suspicious developing here in this market, whereby traditional safe havens are no longer safe anymore? Regular readers know I have feel the the game has changed significantly. In my post, The Old Playbook back in February summarizes my feelings on the subject. GE is a prime example of hedge fund valets and the like, like trained seals, buying the safe, defensive, big cap, multi-national, yield stocks.
Look around at GE, AIG, the drugs PFE, and MRK, health care like WPT and HUM. Something seems amiss? Isn't this supposed to be the safe place to hide. I am no rocket scientist and can assure you NASA is not in my near or distant future other than a visitors pass at the Kennedy Space Center, but what is wrong with cash? What is wrong with precious metals or commodities. And above all what the heck is wrong with CASH ?
My grandfather used to tell me no one likes 3% til they have lost 30%, then they'll beg for 3%. The same people who owned JDS Uniphase, Qualcomm and Nortel steer clear of the precious metals, base metals and the ags. Go figure.

Housekeeping notes;
I was filled on a 2nd unit short of Brinker ticker EAT at $18.98 which now leaves me with 2 units short on the venerable eatery. Great ticker, lousy biz given the state of housing and the U.S. consumer.

I was stopped out of 1 unit long position in U.S. Heating Oil fund at $60.85 for a gain of about 2 3/4pts for a small gain. Which is just as well given the volatility in the sector and the thinness of UHN trading.
In an effort to further protect profits on positions I am moving the following stops;
Moving stop down on Daimler ticker DAI to $70.12
Moving stop up on US Gasoline fund ticker UGA to $62.54

Good speculating to you all.

Open Positions:
Long 6 units Currencyshares Japanese Yen ticker FXY @ $88.55 stop at $91.40
Long 3 units Ultrashort Dow DXD@ $50.12 stops at DIA $130.26/127.34/126.42
Long 2 units Ultrashort Financials SKF @ $103.90 stops at XLF $26.72/25.54
Long 1 unit Currencyshares Swiss Franc ticker FXF @ $96.25 stop at $93.82
Long 3 units Ultrashort ReEstate ticker SRS @ $88.95 stops at IYR $71.14/70.21/68.36
Long 1 unit US Gasoline Fund ticker UGA @ $60.35 stop at $62.54
Long 1 unit Ultrashort QQQ ticker QID @ $37.05 stop at QQQQ $49.56
Long 1 unit Ultrashort S&P ticker SDS @ $57.20 stop at SPY $141.54
Long 1 unit Hecla Mining ticker HL @ $8.30 stop at $7.16
Long 2 units Kinross Gold ticker KGC @ $18.93 stop at $17.56
Long 2 units Clean Energy ticker CLNE @ $13.15 stop at $12.36
Short 1 units Daimler AG ticker DAI @ $86.20 stop at $70.12
Short 2 units Brinker Int'al ticker EAT @ $20.07 stop at $22.44
Short 2 units Darden ticker DRI @ $36.35 stops at $35.36/33.54
Short 2 units Lehman ticker LEH @ $43.70 stop at $28.32
Short 2 units Deutsche Bank ticker DB @ $117.03 stops at $105.26/99.32
Short 1 unit of Visa ticker V @ $86.25 stop at $85.36
Short 1 unit HSBC ticker HBC @ $83.23 stops at $83.52
Short 1 unit of Netflix ticker NFLX @ $31.10 stop at $34.64

Getting long Clean Energy - CLNE

The chart (above) is of an old friend, Boone Picken's Clean Energy. As the chart clearly indicates we had a very nice break out of the falling wedge back in early May. The recent pull back affords me the opportunity to get involved in this trade at these levels. I am getting long 2 units here at $13.05 with a relatively tight stop at $12.36

I want to bring your attention to an existing position, Hecla Mining (chart above). I am already involved in this trade and the time is coming, probably sooner rather than later, to get longer. A break above the $8.60 level with compel me to add a 2nd unit long.


Ahhh what to say about the banks and financials. Buy the banks right Wall St. ? Yes, I realise they're generational buy levels. Morgan including one time extraordinary items in operating income. Gotta love it but don't expect Chris Cox at the SEC to do anything about it. John Mack did nothing wrong involving Pequot Capital and has done nothing wrong this morning. If you are a Morgan shareholder just keep listening to what he says and not what he does, or you can follow that market maven extraordinaire Dennis Kneale's mantra of "keep the faith". I wish you well Morgan shareholders, you will need it.


I am a very positive person, no really I am. I know this may be hard to believe but it's true. But to be positive and upbeat on an object, like the market, in the face of overwhelmingly obvious negative factual data is stupidity of the highest order. I am no bull or bear but a realist and I will let facts guide me.


Am I a pessimist if I call for rain when the sky is dark and cloudy and the weather pressure gauges highly suggest rain is likely? Of course I wouldn't be. But on Wall St. and pompom TV this is not the case. You are a curmudgeon, a fear monger, a persona non grata. Besides, being bearish interferes with Wall St.'s commission flow as anyone who has studied capital markets longer than 15 minutes knows revenues and incomes surge during bull markets and tank in bear so there is a vested interest in 'keeping the faith' so to speak.
Any wonder why NAR (National Assoc. of Realtors) continually spews false garbage out to the public. David Lereah, Lawrence Yun et al. can't make a buck in a bear market, so call it what you want but a conflict of interest does come to this writers mind.


Housekeeping notes;

I was stopped out of my 2 unit long position in Frontier Oil - FTO at $ 26.35 for a flat trade. I still like it and may very well be back at the buffet table for a 3rd helping if the chart tells me to. All the while keeping my losses small.

I was filled on a 2nd unit long of Kinross Gold -KGC at $19.05


Good speculating to you all.

Open Positions:
Long 6 units Currencyshares Japanese Yen ticker FXY @ $88.55 stop at $91.40
Long 3 units Ultrashort Dow DXD@ $50.12 stops at DIA $130.26/127.34/126.42
Long 2 units Ultrashort Financials SKF @ $103.90 stops at XLF $26.72/25.54
Long 1 unit Currencyshares Swiss Franc ticker FXF @ $96.25 stop at $93.82
Long 3 units Ultrashort ReEstate ticker SRS @ $88.95 stops at IYR $71.14/70.21/68.36
Long 1 unit US Gasoline Fund ticker UGA @ $60.35 stop at $60.92
Long 1 unit US Heating Oil Fund ticker UHN @ $58.00 stop at $60.87
Long 1 unit Ultrashort QQQ ticker QID @ $37.05 stop at QQQQ $49.56
Long 1 unit Ultrashort S&P ticker SDS @ $57.20 stop at SPY $141.54
Long 1 unit Hecla Mining ticker HL @ $8.30 stop at $7.16
Long 2 unit Kinross Gold ticker KGC @ $18.93 stop at $17.56
Long 2 units Clean Energy ticker CLNE @ $13.15 stop at $12.36
Short 1 units Daimler AG ticker DAI @ $86.20 stop at $71.62
Short 1 unit Brinker Int'al ticker EAT @ $21.25 stop at $22.44
Short 2 units Darden ticker DRI @ $36.35 stops at $35.36/33.54
Short 1 unit Lehman ticker LEH @ $43.70 stop at $28.32
Short 2 units Deutsche Bank ticker DB @ $117.03 stops at $105.26/99.32
Short 1 unit of Visa ticker V @ $86.25 stop at $85.36
Short 1 unit HSBC ticker HBC @ $83.23 stop at $83.52
Short 1 unit of Netflix ticker NFLX @ $31.10 stop at $34.64

Tuesday, June 17, 2008

Yes guys, It is the Housing Market !

I have a few things on my plate today and will try to post much later today. More probably tomorrow.

Lots of data today coming out. Remember my creed that no matter what anyone does or says "news conforms to the tape" !

Amidst all the hype and confusion, and the baffling of bull$^%#$% it would do you well to refer to or re-read again, the very savvy piece the boys over at Comstock's put out and which I wholeheartedly subscribe to that,

It's the Housing Market, Stupid !

Until the circumstances surrounding housing change SUBSTANTIALLY, we have the best of all allies, the fundamentals, working in our favor.

Good speculating to you all.

Open Positions:
Long 6 units Currencyshares Japanese Yen ticker FXY @ $88.55 stop at $91.40
Long 3 units Ultrashort Dow DXD@ $50.12 stops at DIA $130.26/127.34/126.42
Long 2 units Ultrashort Financials SKF @ $103.90 stops at XLF $26.72/25.54
Long 1 unit Currencyshares Swiss Franc ticker FXF @ $96.25 stop at $93.82
Long 3 units Ultrashort ReEstate ticker SRS @ $88.95 stops at IYR $71.14/70.21/68.36
Long 1 unit US Gasoline Fund ticker UGA @ $60.35 stop at $60.92
Long 1 unit US Heating Oil Fund ticker UHN @ $58.00 stop at $60.87
Long 1 unit Ultrashort QQQ ticker QID @ $37.05 stop at QQQQ $49.56
Long 1 unit Ultrashort S&P ticker SDS @ $57.20 stop at SPY $141.54
Long 2 units Frontier Oil ticker FTO @ $26.25 stop at $26.36
Long 1 unit Hecla Mining ticker HL @ $8.30 stop at $7.16
Long 1 unit Kinross Gold ticker KGC @ $18.70 stop at $17.56
Short 1 units Daimler AG ticker DAI @ $86.20 stop at $71.62
Short 1 unit Brinker Int'al ticker EAT @ $21.25 stop at $22.44
Short 2 units Darden ticker DRI @ $36.35 stops at $35.36/33.54
Short 2 units Lehman ticker LEH @ $43.70 stop at $28.32
Short 2 units Deutsche Bank ticker DB @ $117.03 stops at $105.26/99.32
Short 1 unit of Visa ticker V @ $86.25 stop at $85.36
Short 2 units HSBC ticker HBC @ $83.23 stops at $83.52/81.36
Short 1 unit of Netflix ticker NFLX @ $31.10 stop at $34.64

Monday, June 16, 2008

Getting Longer SRS

Are you watching the discussion of GE on pompom TV, especially now with the brokerage downgrades. I wish them luck as the chart, not me, says they will need plenty of it!

I mentioned in a post yesterday I would like to add to my SRS position on an IYR rally. Well, we have one happening today and I will take advantage of the rally to get shorter the IYR via the Ultrashort Real Estate ticker SRS. I am adding a 3rd unit here at $89.10

I am still watching.....

Brinker (ticker EAT) for a break below $19 to get shorter.

Kinross Gold (ticker KGC) for a break above $19 to get longer.

Housekeeping notes;

I was stopped out of 2 units short on Goldman. 1 unit stopped at $180.80 and another at $184.50. for a gain of $10.75 and $7 respectively. No telling how far the thugs may want to gun this up before they crush the Goldman lovebirds again !

Good speculating to you all.

Open Positions:
Long 6 units Currencyshares Japanese Yen ticker FXY @ $88.55 stop at $91.40
Long 3 units Ultrashort Dow DXD@ $50.12 stops at DIA $130.26/127.34/126.42
Long 2 units Ultrashort Financials SKF @ $103.90 stops at XLF $26.72/25.54
Long 1 unit Currencyshares Swiss Franc ticker FXF @ $96.25 stop at $93.82
Long 3 units Ultrashort ReEstate ticker SRS @ $88.95 stops at IYR $71.14/70.21/68.36
Long 1 unit US Gasoline Fund ticker UGA @ $60.35 stop at $60.92
Long 1 unit US Heating Oil Fund ticker UHN @ $58.00 stop at $60.87
Long 1 unit Ultrashort QQQ ticker QID @ $37.05 stop at QQQQ $49.56
Long 1 unit Ultrashort S&P ticker SDS @ $57.20 stop at SPY $141.54
Long 2 units Frontier Oil ticker FTO @ $26.25 stop at $26.36
Long 1 unit Hecla Mining ticker HL @ $8.30 stop at $7.16
Long 1 unit Kinross Gold ticker KGC @ $18.70 stop at $17.56
Short 1 units Daimler AG ticker DAI @ $86.20 stop at $71.62
Short 1 unit Brinker Int'al ticker EAT @ $21.25 stop at $22.44
Short 2 units Darden ticker DRI @ $36.35 stops at $35.36/33.54
Short 2 units Lehman ticker LEH @ $43.70 stop at $28.32
Short 2 units Deutsche Bank ticker DB @ $117.03 stops at $105.26/99.32
Short 1 unit of Visa ticker V @ $86.25 stop at $85.36
Short 2 units HSBC ticker HBC @ $83.23 stops at $83.52/81.36
Short 1 unit of Netflix ticker NFLX @ $31.10 stop at $34.64

Sunday, June 15, 2008

Crude - USO and the Ishares real estate - IYR

We have a dandy looking pennant forming on crude here. This could and should take some time to develop, which helps digest the recent run up in price by those dastardly speculators. Imagine the nerve of them. How dare they! Don't they know the world is awash in supply and all we have to do is raise margin rates, ban institutions from the marketplace, (yes, those same institutions you expect your pension to come from and is holding all those worthless pieces of CDO paper sold to them by Bear Stearns and Lehman) and all will be well.

Better yet, don't they know that according to Larry Kudlow a.k.a. 'The Answer' (apologies to Allan Iverson) all we have to do is raise rates and drill, drill, drill ! and all our problems will be solved. Ahhhh Mr. Kudlow, you poor, poor soul, if only it were that easy! I really wish it was. I won't insult your phenomenally shallow solution, which probably took a whole 4 seconds of in depth consideration to come up with, any further than just reporting the item does on its own.

Nice little rally here into former support which should now serve as resisitance. I am watching and waiting to get even shorter IYR via the Ultrashort Real Estate ticker SRS.

Housekeeping notes.;

I was stopped out of 1 unit short of Lehman at $25.87 for a gain of just over $17.50 pts. This still leaves me with 1 unit. Not bad for a company that is in no need of liquidity, nor capital but is raising it just to handle perceptions and is gonna run in the shorts. Go get em' Dick ! Tom Clancy couldn't make this up any better !


A quick note to former CFO Erin Callan, who after being thrown under the bus by Dick is rejoining her old unit in investment banking at Lehman. Most people don't have to be bitten by a snake to realise it's a snake but I understand your confusion, the money is so good on Wall St., the power so intoxicating that some have to be bitten. Get out now !! Life is too short.

Good speculating to you all.

Open Positions:
Long 6 units Currencyshares Japanese Yen ticker FXY @ $88.55 stop at $91.40
Long 3 units Ultrashort Dow DXD@ $50.12 stops at DIA $130.26/127.34/126.42
Long 2 units Ultrashort Financials SKF @ $103.90 stops at XLF $26.72/25.54
Long 1 unit Currencyshares Swiss Franc ticker FXF @ $96.25 stop at $93.82
Long 2 units Ultrashort ReEstate ticker SRS @ $88.80 stops at IYR $70.21/68.36
Long 1 unit US Gasoline Fund ticker UGA @ $60.35 stop at $60.92
Long 1 unit US Heating Oil Fund ticker UHN @ $58.00 stop at $60.87
Long 1 unit Ultrashort QQQ ticker QID @ $37.05 stop at QQQQ $49.56
Long 1 unit Ultrashort S&P ticker SDS @ $57.20 stop at SPY $141.54
Long 2 units Frontier Oil ticker FTO @ $26.25 stop at $26.36
Long 1 unit Hecla Mining ticker HL @ $8.30 stop at $7.16
Long 1 unit Kinross Gold ticker KGC @ $18.70 stop at $17.56
Short 1 units Daimler AG ticker DAI @ $86.20 stop at $71.62
Short 1 unit Brinker Int'al ticker EAT @ $21.25 stop at $22.44
Short 2 units Goldman Sachs ticker GS @ $191.53 stops at $184.43/180.76
Short 2 units Darden ticker DRI @ $36.35 stops at $35.36/33.54
Short 2 units Lehman ticker LEH @ $43.70 stop at $28.32
Short 2 units Deutsche Bank ticker DB @ $117.03 stops at $105.26/99.32
Short 1 unit of Visa ticker V @ $86.25 stop at $85.36
Short 2 units HSBC ticker HBC @ $83.23 stops at $83.52/81.36
Short 1 unit of Netflix ticker NFLX @ $31.10 stop at $34.64

Friday, June 13, 2008

Antennae Up on Brinker - Eat and Panera - PNRA

I am short 1 unit of Brinker Int'al ticker EAT (chart above). This (bear) flag looks to be now on the verge of breaking the lower bound of the flag. This would look to occur about 19.25-30. I will wait for $19 to be broken and will use that break to add to my short position.

I hate to post the chart on Panera (above). I love the place. When you can't find a 3rd generation ol' fashioned deli and franchise is the only option, Panera stacks up the best for me. That being said that has nothing to do with speculating in Panera. The chart looks to have formed a double top here. and looks set to violate the lowest mid-point of $46, which if done will inflict much pain on PNRA longs. A stop around $45 could and should protect you. Now I realise you could argue that this is a continuation rectangle bounded by 53 thru 46. I would respect this scenario more if the U.S. consumer wasn't in the dire predicament I believe him to be in.


I want to do a little stop management today on some existing positions. Call me all sorts of names but fear of loss is not the worst trait you can have in speculating.

3 units long Ultrashort Dow (DXD) - adding a 3rd stop at $126.42
2 units long Ultrashort Financials (SKF) - moving stops down to XLF level $25.42/$24.86
2 units long Ultrashort Real Estate (SRS) - moving stops down to IYR levle $70.21/68.36
1 unit long Ultrashort QQQ (QID) - moving stop down to QQQQ level $49.56
2 units long Frontier Oil (FTO) - moving stop up to $26.36
1 unit short Daimler AG (DAI) - moving stop down to $71.62
2 units short Darden (DRI) - moving stops down to $35.36/33.54
2 units short Lehman (LEH) - moving stops down to $28.32/25.84
2 units short Deutsche Bank (DB) - moving stops down to $105.26/99.32
1 unit short Visa (V) - moving stop down to $85.36


Good speculating to you all.

Open Positions:
Long 6 units Currencyshares Japanese Yen ticker FXY @ $88.55 stop at $91.40
Long 3 units Ultrashort Dow DXD@ $50.12 stops at DIA $130.26/127.34/126.42
Long 2 units Ultrashort Financials SKF @ $103.90 stops at XLF $26.72/25.54
Long 1 unit Currencyshares Swiss Franc ticker FXF @ $96.25 stop at $93.82
Long 2 units Ultrashort ReEstate ticker SRS @ $88.80 stops at IYR $70.21/68.36
Long 1 unit US Gasoline Fund ticker UGA @ $60.35 stop at $60.92
Long 1 unit US Heating Oil Fund ticker UHN @ $58.00 stop at $60.87
Long 1 unit Ultrashort QQQ ticker QID @ $37.05 stop at QQQQ $49.56
Long 1 units Ultrashort S&P ticker SDS @ $57.20 stop at SPY $141.54
Long 2 units Frontier Oil ticker FTO @ $26.25 stop at $26.36
Long 1 unit Hecla Mining ticker HL @ $8.30 stop at $7.16
Long 1 unit Kinross Gold ticker KGC @ $18.70 stop at $17.56
Short 1 units Daimler AG ticker DAI @ $86.20 stop at $71.62
Short 1 unit Brinker Int'al ticker EAT @ $21.25 stop at $22.44
Short 2 units Goldman Sachs ticker GS @ $191.53 stops at $184.43/180.76
Short 2 units Darden ticker DRI @ $36.35 stops at $35.36/33.54
Short 2 units Lehman ticker LEH @ $43.70 stops at $28.32/25.84
Short 2 units Deutsche Bank ticker DB @ $117.03 stops at $105.26/99.32
Short 1 unit of Visa ticker V @ $86.25 stop at $85.36
Short 1 unit of Netflix ticker NFLX @ $31.10 stop at $34.64

Thursday, June 12, 2008

Getting Long Kinross Gold - KGC

I want you to have a look at the weekly on Kinross Gold ticker KGC (above). We look to be having a major correction amidst a well defined uptrend.

Now switch to the daily view of Kinross. I like the looks of the formation here. with a potential double bottom forming inside this channel correction. It looks enticing enough to get me long 1 unit here of KGC at $18.60 and I will add a 2nd unit on the move above $19.

Senator Lieberman proposing to ban institutions from commodity speculation. Listen you cannot make this stuff up. Get ready for more and more of this. We are headed to a very bad place, lead by the nose with ideas by very ignorant, stupid people. There is no way to sugar coat this. Sorry if you were hoping to hear something different or more 'positively slanted' For that I would higher recommend keeping the faith with the Pollyanna's on pompom TV. Sit back and think of the most outrageous most numskull idea you can think of. Now write it down because it is coming soon via your local senator or congressman/woman. But don't worry, American Idol is on, and so is Survivor, so there is no need to worry !!


Good speculating to you all.


Open Positions:
Long 6 units Currencyshares Japanese Yen ticker FXY @ $88.55 stop at $91.40
Long 3 units Ultrashort Dow DXD@ $50.12 stops 2/1 at DIA $130.26/127.34
Long 2 units Ultrashort Financials SKF @ $103.90 stops at XLF $26.72/25.54
Long 1 unit Currencyshares Swiss Franc ticker FXF @ $96.25 stop at $93.82
Long 2 units Ultrashort Real Estate ticker SRS @ $88.80 stop at IYR $71.08
Long 1 unit US Gasoline Fund ticker UGA @ $60.35 stop at $60.92
Long 1 unit US Heating Oil Fund ticker UHN @ $58.00 stop at $60.87
Long 1 unit Ultrashort QQQ ticker QID @ $37.05 stop at QQQQ $52.24
Long 1 units Ultrashort S&P ticker SDS @ $57.20 stop at SPY $141.54
Long 2 units Frontier Oil ticker FTO @ $26.25 stop at $24.22
Long 1 unit Hecla Mining ticker HL @ $8.30 stop at $7.16
Long 1 unit Kinross Gold ticker KGC @ $18.70 stop at $17.56
Short 1 units Daimler AG ticker DAI @ $86.20 stop at $82.48
Short 1 unit Brinker Int'al ticker EAT @ $21.25 stop at $22.44
Short 2 units Goldman Sachs ticker GS @ $191.53 stops at $184.43/180.76
Short 2 units Darden ticker DRI @ $36.35 stops at $36.37/$35.24
Short 2 units Lehman ticker LEH @ $43.70 stops at $36.27/$30.92
Short 2 units Deutsche Bank ticker DB @ $117.03 stops at $114.89/105.37
Short 2 units HSBC ticker HBC @ $83.23 stop at $86.78
Short 1 unit of Visa ticker V @ $86.25 stop at $91.17
Short 1 unit of Netflix ticker NFLX @ $31.10 stop at $34.64

Those Darned Speculators and Hecla Mining - HL

I have been watching Hecla Mining, ticker HL (chart above) for some time. We have had a significant shakeout for this precious metals producer. We look to be in an area of some support of consequence. We also have what looks to be a falling wedge developing which portends a bullish future. I am going to stick my toe in the water and get long an exploratory single unit here at $8.20 with a stop at $7.16 I know I need another position like I need a hole in my head but you must make hay while the sun is shining.


I was watching O'Reilly last night. He was railing against the speculators as he was discussing useless drivel with the infamous Dennis Kucinich whose C.V should be well known. They were bashing the oil companies and hyping the windfall profits fix. I will guarantee you this, if they come out with a windfall profits tax on the oil companies, (by the way Google among many other U.S. companies have much higher profit margins than the oil companies but why let facts get in the way of a good lynching), I can assure you we will reach Louise Yamada's target on crude much faster than even she anticipates.


And of Dr. Rober Hirsch's prediction of #12-15/gallon gasoline. Well, you can forget it and just quadruple that. And get ready for rationing and all the other attendant unpleasantness (to put it mildly) that goes with that.


The law of unintended consequences will be in full effect when the grandstanding invalids of Washington latch their claws into the windfall profits tax..... GUARANTEED !


Now if only I could get a 5000 gallon tank installed in my yard.
*****Note*****
If the administration releases reserves from the SPR (Strategic Petroleum Reserve) it will be a gift ! Plan to take advantage of it and BUY CRUDE on the event. I know I will be !


I mentioned the other day about Mexico's falling oil production and citing Dr. Jeffrey Brown's work on that subject. If O'Reilly thinks we have an illegal immigration issue now, with Mexico rolling in dough from energy proceeds, wait to see what happens when Cantarell and hence Mexico's production goes into steep decline. Remember, oil revenues supply about40% of Mexico's government budget.




Good speculating to you all.


Open Positions:
Long 6 units Currencyshares Japanese Yen ticker FXY @ $88.55 stop at $91.40
Long 3 units Ultrashort Dow DXD@ $50.12 stops 2/1 at DIA $130.26/127.34
Long 2 units Ultrashort Financials SKF @ $103.90 stops at XLF $26.72/25.54
Long 1 unit Currencyshares Swiss Franc ticker FXF @ $96.25 stop at $93.82
Long 2 units Ultrashort Real Estate ticker SRS @ $88.80 stop at IYR $71.08
Long 1 unit US Gasoline Fund ticker UGA @ $60.35 stop at $60.92
Long 1 unit US Heating Oil Fund ticker UHN @ $58.00 stop at $60.87
Long 1 unit Ultrashort QQQ ticker QID @ $37.05 stop at QQQQ $52.24
Long 1 units Ultrashort S&P ticker SDS @ $57.20 stop at SPY $141.54
Long 2 units Frontier Oil ticker FTO @ $26.25 stop at $24.22
Long 1 unit Hecla Mining ticker HL @ $8.30 stop at $7.16
Short 1 units Daimler AG ticker DAI @ $86.20 stop at $82.48
Short 1 unit Brinker Int'al ticker EAT @ $21.25 stop at $22.44
Short 2 units Goldman Sachs ticker GS @ $191.53 stops at $184.43/180.76
Short 2 units Darden ticker DRI @ $36.35 stops at $36.37/$35.24
Short 2 units Lehman ticker LEH @ $43.70 stops at $36.27/$30.92
Short 2 units Deutsche Bank ticker DB @ $117.03 stops at $114.89/105.37
Short 2 units HSBC ticker HBC @ $83.23 stop at $86.78
Short 1 unit of Visa ticker V @ $86.25 stop at $91.17
Short 1 unit of Netflix ticker NFLX @ $31.10 stop at $34.64

Wednesday, June 11, 2008

Frontier Oil - FTO. Back in the water...again !

I was uncermoniously stopped out of a wonderfully profitable position in Frontier recently. I broke one of my rules which is never let a winner become a loser. I was blinded by the $$$ signs. I am human, not a black box. That being said I have been watching Frontier very close. The first chart is a weekly view (below).

I realise this looks to be a massive double top formed and now which would imply a target of about $14. Yes hard to believe. We must also recognized that we are in a significant zone of support in this current area.
I hope I am not being blinded by the bullish oil story. I do believe that gas needs to play catch up to crude. I am getting long 2 units here of Frontier ticker FTO at $26.20 with a stop just below $24.


Good speculating to you all.
Open Positions:
Long 6 units Currencyshares Japanese Yen ticker FXY @ $88.55 stop at $91.40
Long 3 units Ultrashort Dow DXD@ $50.12 stops 2/1 at DIA $130.26/127.34
Long 2 units Ultrashort Financials SKF @ $103.90 stops at XLF $26.72/25.54
Long 1 unit Currencyshares Swiss Franc ticker FXF @ $96.25 stop at $93.82
Long 2 units Ultrashort Real Estate ticker SRS @ $88.80 stop at IYR $71.08
Long 1 unit US Gasoline Fund ticker UGA @ $60.35 stop at $60.92
Long 1 unit US Heating Oil Fund ticker UHN @ $58.00 stop at $60.87
Long 1 unit Ultrashort QQQ ticker QID @ $37.05 stop at QQQQ $52.24
Long 1 units Ultrashort S&P ticker SDS @ $57.20 stop at SPY $141.54
Long 2 units Frontier Oil ticker FTO @ $26.25 stop at $24.22
Short 1 units Daimler AG ticker DAI @ $86.20 stop at $82.48
Short 1 unit Brinker Int'al ticker EAT @ $21.25 stop at $22.44
Short 2 units Goldman Sachs ticker GS @ $191.53 stops at $184.43/180.76
Short 2 units Darden ticker DRI @ $36.35 stops at $36.37/$35.24
Short 2 units Lehman ticker LEH @ $43.70 stops at $36.27/$30.92
Short 2 units Deutsche Bank ticker DB @ $117.03 stops at $114.89/105.37
Short 2 units HSBC ticker HBC @ $83.23 stop at $86.78
Short 1 unit of Visa ticker V @ $86.25 stop at $91.17
Short 1 unit of Netflix ticker NFLX @ $31.10 stop at $34.64

Deutsche Bank AG - heading for $44 ?

My apologies for not posting yesterday. I had a family matter to attend to which is much better now thank you.

I want to bring your attention to an existing position we have on here at Prudens Speculari, that being short 2 units of Deutsche Bank (DB) at $117. I had some issues with the prices on the chart of DB on my Prophet.net feed which is being corrected (great service which you should check out) so I have posted the DB chart (below) via stockcharts.com

Regular readers remember my large head and shoulders formation (left shoulder Feb/07, head May/07, and right shoulder autumn/07) that had its neckline at $120. That was the basis for my short position.



I want to bring your attention to a MUCH LARGER head and shoulders formation with the left shoulder May/06, head May/07, and right shoulder May/08. Now I am no mathematician but it is mere coincidence that all of these points are in symmetry 1 year apart? I welcome any reader's thoughts or views on this. I do remember a cat named Steve Carolan, who a technician buddy brought to my attention years ago, who did some work on spiral calendars but I never did any serious investigation in this arena. If you have any info on this subject I would greatly appreciate it and recognize the source, unless requested otherwise. I wouldn't admit publicly I read this rag either !

Anyway the neckline on this new and much larger H&S formation was about 102.25-50. Lets call it $102 for simplicity. The head was formed at $160, so we can ascertain a potential target by subtracting the height of the head from the neckline (160-102=58) from the neckline. Therefore (102-58=44) I come up with a target for Deutsche Bank of $44.

Outrageous you say. Judge for yourself. I only let the charts speak to me since they sometimes tell fibs(short term) they rarely lie and absolutely never can or do over longer periods of time. I am going to watch DB close and will be considering adding to the short position on any rally back into the neckline or just above. We have to respect a move such as this given it happened back in May rallying just above the $120 neckline.

That being said, wouldn't it just be like the market to do that to us the last time and now that we are looking for it to happen again, it never looks back.

Good speculating to you all.

Open Positions:
Long 6 units Currencyshares Japanese Yen ticker FXY @ $88.55 stop at $91.40
Long 3 units Ultrashort Dow DXD@ $50.12 stops 2/1 at DIA $130.26/127.34
Long 2 units Ultrashort Financials SKF @ $103.90 stops at XLF $26.72/25.54
Long 1 unit Currencyshares Swiss Franc ticker FXF @ $96.25 stop at $93.82
Long 2 units Ultrashort Real Estate ticker SRS @ $88.80 stop at IYR $71.08
Long 1 unit US Gasoline Fund ticker UGA @ $60.35 stop at $60.92
Long 1 unit US Heating Oil Fund ticker UHN @ $58.00 stop at $60.87
Long 1 unit Ultrashort QQQ ticker QID @ $37.05 stop at QQQQ $52.24
Long 1 units Ultrashort S&P ticker SDS @ $57.20 stop at SPY $141.54
Short 1 units Daimler AG ticker DAI @ $86.20 stop at $82.48
Short 1 unit Brinker Int'al ticker EAT @ $21.25 stop at $22.44
Short 2 units Goldman Sachs ticker GS @ $191.53 stops at $184.43/180.76
Short 2 units Darden ticker DRI @ $36.35 stops at $36.37/$35.24
Short 2 units Lehman ticker LEH @ $43.70 stops at $36.27/$30.92
Short 2 units Deutsche Bank ticker DB @ $117.03 stops at $114.89/105.37
Short 2 units HSBC ticker HBC @ $83.23 stop at $86.78
Short 1 unit of Visa ticker V @ $86.25 stop at $91.17
Short 1 unit of Netflix ticker NFLX @ $31.10 stop at $34.64

Monday, June 9, 2008

Items to Consider

Regular readers know that I am a huge fan of Louise Yamada. Many remember here from her days as chief technician over at Smith Barney before she subsequently went out on her own. Newsmax carried an interview with her which can be found here. She is without pere in the arena of technical analysis.



One snippet in the interview caught my attention.



'From a technical perspective, she relies on historical trading patterns and calculates a gain of more than 1,000 percent from the 2004 breakout point of $40 a barrel. This provides “an outstanding (and astounding) target of $452.92 per barrel!” she warns. '



Realize she did not grab at this number out of thin air. It is based on historical trading patterns.



The next piece is a excerpt from Jeffrey Brown who is an extremely bright geologist out of Dallas Tx. I have read much of his work including his work on the Export Land Model (ELM) and have had some brief exchange with him. I would strongly encourage all of you to avail yourself of his work as it is must reading. It is not pleasant reading must it is must reading nonetheless!



For the uninitiated the ELM models the effects of the decline in oil exports as a result of the peak in oil production in oil exporting countries while at the same time domestic consumption increases in those same countries. This combination of declining production and increasing domestic consumption leads oil exports to decline at a far faster percentage rate than oil production itself is falling.



321 Energy has a nice interview with Dr. Brown . Here is a little excerpt.



Using straightforward ELM calculations, Jeffrey Brown is confident that Mexico will ship its last barrel of oil to the United States -- or anywhere else, for that matter -- about 6 years from now, in 2014. In a recent interview with Brown, I asked about this forecast.


“Mexico was consuming half of their production at peak in 2004. And if you look at the ’05, ’06, ’07 data, they’re basically on track, on average, to approach zero net oil exports no later than 2014,” he confirmed.


Of course, the U.S. is completely unprepared to replace this source of oil, especially considering the growing stresses on global oil supplies causing by ballooning demand from emerging markets. That means the international competition for available supplies is only going to more desperate in the months and years ahead.


What will this mean to oil prices, according to Brown?


“From this point out I think we’ll see a geometric progression in prices… you know, $50, $100, $200, $400, whatever. The only question now is how short the periods will be between prices doubling again”.


Coincidentally, while working on this report, on April 30, 2008, PEMEX, Mexico’s national oil company, announced it would be unable to fulfill this years scheduled oil export obligations to the United States… falling short by about 11% or 184,000 barrels a day.



I provide this for those that need fundamentals alongside technicals to trade. Not enough you say. Try this comparison on for size.





Rice & Oil: a Useful Comparable


For a useful way to think about energy exports and prices, Jeff Brown points to the current situation with global rice supplies.



As long as there are abundant local supplies, countries are happy, eager in fact, to export excess production in order to generate foreign exchange. But as soon as local consumption exceeds locally available production, then all hell breaks loose and the next thing you know countries are banning exports, a move that has already been undertaken by Vietnam and a number of other countries.


In that scenario, price eventually no longer becomes a factor in the availability of the commodity. Vietnam, for example, is not going to let its people starve just because higher global prices would allow it to earn an extra $10 a bag of rice.


And so in the face of the prospect of any serious shortage of an important resource – energy being maybe the most important – export markets freeze up and the price begins to be set at the margin, literally based on a global competition for the dwindling supplies that manage to leak out around the edges.
“People are crazy not to be focusing on the oil export situation,” Dr. Brown told me.






But who are I trying to kid. According to Dennis Kneale and the rest of the NASA bound rocket scientist hosts over on pompom TV, energy is in a speculative bubble that can be easily cured via margin requirements and the Fed! Believe me, no one wishes that were so more than me. I am no rooting for this in any way but the delusional lack of critical thinking on the issue only delays any remedies to the situation. Time becomes the enemy here McFly !



Good speculating to you all.