Thursday, July 31, 2008

Closely Watching Visa -V

Yes I know Visa reported numbers today and they were fabulous. But remember that I believe over the longer term, and by longer I mean longer than 30 minutes, all news conforms to the tape. I let the tape or the chart tell me what action to take.

Visa, ticker V, as regular readers know, was a short position I was recently stopped out of for a decent profit. I bring it up again because we have an extremely nice looking flag formation on the daily chart (above). Having missed an entry at the top end of the formation near $78, I will now wait for the lower boundary to be broken to the downside. Eyeballing it, it looks to be around $71.

Did you catch the Greenspan interview, if it can be called that. Poor Maria, her days as the money honey seem numbered so you can appreciate her attempts at ingratiating herself with the powers that be as she attempt to reference stuff her CV.

I was surprised at how the Maestro, of obfuscation that is, used plain English to call the credit crisis one of not liquidity but SOLVENCY ! Who would have thunk that now. Cutting edge analysis the boyz at Pimco are paying for now aren't they?

I heard Jim Cramer of pom pom TV officially called a bottom in the market last night. Just for comparative purposes I caught this snippet from Porter Stansberry who relayed what long time, global money manager Jeremy Grantham, speaking to a crowd said the following;

"In 2000", he said, "we had a technology bubble. But this is massive, a massive credit crisis and a bubble in global housing, global equity and global land." He called it the "first truly global bubble." When asked by a money manager what to buy now, he said "long mattresses" to store cash. He seriously suggested putting money into high-quality hedge funds. Also, Grantham admitted, "I bought my first gold last week, and I hate gold. It doesn't pay a dividend. I would only do it if I was desperate."

So take your pick.

Good speculating to you all and no matter what anyone tells you, never ever forget that "an investor is a speculator who made a mistake and will not admit it".





Open Positions:
Long 6 units Currencyshare Japanese Yen ticker FXY @ $88.55 stop at $91.40
Long 4 units Currencyshares Swiss Franc ticker FXF @ $97.70 stop at $93.82
Long 1 unit Ultrashort Dow ticker DXD@ $50.12 stop at $58.62
Long 1 unit Ultrashort QQQ ticker QID @ $37.05 stop at $42.87
Long 2 units Hecla Mining ticker HL @ $8.50 stop at $8.09
Long 2 units Ultrashort 20yr Treasury ticker TBT @ $67.85 stops at $69.24/68.32
Long 1 unit Ultrashort Financials ticker SKF @ $119.60 stop at $114.38
Short 1 unit Int'al Bus Machines ticker IBM @ $129.05 stop at $131.54

Ultrashort Financials - SKF

My apologies for my earlier quick post. I was trying to get the information out in a timely fashion. Regular readers know my affection for the SKF as it is my preferred vehicle for playing the effects of the credit implosion.

What made me get into this trade. First off the financial charts I posted yesterday evening. Now today we get news of some 2 bit hedge fund out of Britain taking a 6% stake in terminally ill Washington Mutual (Wamu) ticker WM along with Philly based Sovereign ticker SOV. You wanna bet dollars to doughnuts that someone put this news out to get out of a massive long and wrong position on Wamu?

You also wanna bet dollars to doughnuts that like Thain and Merrill Lynch and Mack and Morgan Stanley none of this will be investigated by Cox and the Keystone Cops over at the SEC? I thought so.

I attempted to short WM on the news on hedge fund position news but was not able to compliments of Mr. Cox and the SEC. So I have done the next best thing and jumped on board the Ultrashort financials ticker SKF.

Good speculating to you all and never forget that "an investor is a speculator who made a mistake and will not admit it".

Open Positions:
Long 6 units Currencyshare Japanese Yen ticker FXY @ $88.55 stop at $91.40
Long 4 units Currencyshares Swiss Franc ticker FXF @ $97.70 stop at $93.82
Long 1 unit Ultrashort Dow ticker DXD@ $50.12 stop at $58.62
Long 1 unit Ultrashort QQQ ticker QID @ $37.05 stop at $42.87
Long 2 units Hecla Mining ticker HL @ $8.50 stop at $8.09
Long 2 units Ultrashort 20yr Treasury ticker TBT @ $67.85 stops at $69.24/68.32
Long 1 unit Ultrashort Financials ticker SKF @ $119.60 stop at $114.38
Short 1 unit Int'l Bus Machines ticker IBM @ $129.05 stop at $131.54

Getting Short Financials

Sorry for the quick post but I am getting long 1 unit of the ultrashort financials ticker SKF here at $119.50

Wanting Transparency

I happened to catch an interview on pompom TV (CNBC) with a former Wall St. executive by the name of Joe Grano. I am not familiar with this gentleman or his background but some of his comments caught my attention.

First off, he keeps referring to the current credit debacle as a liquidity issue, there is no liquidity. There seems to be a brain freeze happening among the intelligentsia on Wall St. and Washington. It has nothing to do with liquidity it is an issue of solvency plain and simple. Cats like Mr. Grano need to get this through their skull and the sooner the better. Denial is a fascinating characteristic to observe.

The second item he talked about is some about pricing this illiquid, as he calls it, mortgage paper at certain levels for certain origination's vintages etc. All because HE thinks they are irrationally priced! This is too funny and rather ironic how he must have been away on vacation when the dot coms and telecoms were astronomically priced. No problem there right.

This my dear readers is exactly the problem we now have which is compounded the intial underlying problem. This belief by people like Joe Grano that they know the correct price or level is hubris of the highest order. Mr. Grano wants transparency in the financials, yet in the next breath he disagrees with the current transparent price, instead wanting to replace it with his more intelligent version. Transparency is only good when it fits with mine! Ahhh, their arrogance is only exceeded by the ignorance. I do not direct this at Mr. Grano because he seems nice enough and smart enough but is there something in the water these guys are drinking?

It is truly fascinating that men as steeped in the markets as Mr. Joe Grano purportedly are, would utter such nonsense as we get to hear on an almost daily basis via pompom TV leads me to question their capital market sanity. But then again, losing positions can bring even the mightiest on Wall St. to their knees. One tell in all of this, is that the solutions being offered up, as shallow as they are, illustrate perfectly how dire the current credit situation truly is, contrary to what our esteemed Fed Chairman and Treasury Secretary perpetually tell us.


Good speculating to you all and never forget that "an investor is a speculator who made a mistake and will not admit it".


Open Positions:
Long 6 units Currencyshare Japanese Yen ticker FXY @ $88.55 stop at $91.40
Long 4 units Currencyshares Swiss Franc ticker FXF @ $97.70 stop at $93.82
Long 1 unit Ultrashort Dow ticker DXD@ $50.12 stop at $58.62
Long 1 unit Ultrashort QQQ ticker QID @ $37.05 stop at $42.87
Long 2 units Hecla Mining ticker HL @ $8.50 stop at $8.09
Long 2 units Ultrashort 20yr Treasury ticker TBT @ $67.85 stops at $69.24/68.32
Short 1 unit Int'l Bus Machines ticker IBM @ $129.05 stop at $131.54

Getting Short International Business Machines - IBM

After another look at the IBM chart this morning and watching the overall market I need to be short this name. I know IBM has been THE market stalwart. Knowing this I am getting short 1 unit of IBM here at $128.95 with a stop at $131.54. Crazy maybe, but you never know til you bet.

Good speculating to you all and never forget that "an investor is a speculator who made a mistake and will not admit it".

Open Positions:
Long 6 units Currencyshare Japanese Yen ticker FXY @ $88.55 stop at $91.40
Long 4 units Currencyshares Swiss Franc ticker FXF @ $97.70 stop at $93.82
Long 1 unit Ultrashort Dow DXD@ $50.12 stop at $58.62
Long 1 unit Ultrashort QQQ ticker QID @ $37.05 stop at $42.87
Long 2 units Hecla Mining ticker HL @ $8.50 stop at $8.09
Long 2 units Ultrashort 20yr Treasury ticker TBT @ $67.85 stops at $69.24/68.32
Short 1 unit Int'l Bus Machines ticker IBM @ $129.05 stop at $131.54

Still Bearish ?

I received an email from reader WD asking me the following;

I enjoy your blog very much though I have a question. I noticed you getting more defensive, meanwhile the economic news continues to worsen shouldn't one be getting more aggressive in this type of circumstance?
thanks again WD

WD,

thanks for reading and your question. Yes I have been getting defensive but quite frankly through no fault of my own. My stops have been getting hit, and like it or not, that is just the markets way. You must learn to respect the market no matter how much you may disagree with its initial or recent reaction to an event, for it you don't you will be bankrupt quicker than Nick Leeson.

I realise I am MUCH less short than I desire to be, but I have learned to let the market tell me what to do, not the other way around as I have tried that and have the trading losses to prove it! I take some consolation that I do have a bet on the table with 1 unit of the DXD and QID. I am on very high alert for a good entry point.

So in conclusion do not infer I have changed my stance in any way. I see the bearish news and circumstances abound and soon, very soon the short bus riding equity cheerleaders will as well, losses have a way of doing that to traders.

I hope this essay helps !

Good speculating to you all and never forget that "an investor is a speculator who made a mistake and will not admit it".


Open Positions:
Long 6 units Currencyshare Japanese Yen ticker FXY @ $88.55 stop at $91.40
Long 4 units Currencyshares Swiss Franc ticker FXF @ $97.70 stop at $93.82
Long 1 unit Ultrashort Dow DXD@ $50.12 stop at $58.62
Long 1 unit Ultrashort QQQ ticker QID @ $37.05 stop at $42.87
Long 2 units Hecla Mining ticker HL @ $8.50 stop at $8.09
Long 2 units Ultrashort 20yr Treasury ticker TBT @ $67.85 stops at $69.24/68.32

Wednesday, July 30, 2008

Deja Vu.

The action of late on the Bank America chart (above) looks eerily reminiscent of the activity of January.

No the above chart is not a mistakenly labeled, as it is indeed a daily view of Wells Fargo. Again very similar to January's action. Deja vu or what?

The tape on Wachovia (chart above) looks weak. I have hi-lited the 19.55 level as an area that should not be bettered.


The chart on IBM (above) is not something I post lightly. IBM has been a picture of strength, in the storm. That being said, in a bear market all stocks eventually succumb to the selling pressure, some just do it sooner rather than later. The chart may not be very interesting to you until you look at the next one.


This chart is a close up view of IBM. As my notes indicate, it may be just passingly strange or it might be a major tell, either way I find it suspicious at the lack of a close above $130.


Housekeeping notes;

I was stopped out of GLD at $88.80, as gold gapped down this morning, for a loss of 2.75 on 1 unit.

Good speculating to you all and never forget that "an investor is a speculator who made a mistake and will not admit it".

Open Positions:

Long 6 units Currencyshare Japanese Yen ticker FXY @ $88.55 stop at $91.40
Long 1 unit Ultrashort Dow DXD@ $50.12 stop at $58.62
Long 4 units Currencyshares Swiss Franc ticker FXF @ $97.70 stop at $93.82
Long 1 unit Ultrashort QQQ ticker QID @ $37.05 stop at $42.87
Long 2 units Hecla Mining ticker HL @ $8.50 stop at $8.09
Long 2 units Ultrashort 20yr Treasury ticker TBT @ $67.85 stops at $69.24/68.32

Back at Work

Big down day on Monday, big up day on Tuesday. No shortage of volatility, which is what speculators and traders crave.

I want to touch quickly on 2 items of interest. The Merrill Lynch news along with the covered bond market news recently that seems to have been the catalyst for the hedge fund valets to jump aboard the financials again. First off, the covered bond market news, as far as I can tell, is the way the debt market should be working. You make a loan, you hold it on your books, it goes sour you eat it. Imagine that ! Now, given the state of the banks and their life and death struggle to re-trench and re-capitalise, you cannot preach morals and chastity once you are pregnant. So for those hedge fund gurus who think this is the panacea for the credit markets, I have a nice patch of swamp land for you on the cheap. By the way find your own financian as I will not float you a loan for the purchase.

Speaking of finding your own financing, funny how Merrill Lynch claims to have sold off some toxic paper of the 2005 vintage, which, if you have studied the housing cycle should scare the pants off you given that this confirms how far the housing mess is spreading. The older the vintage of paper the supposed better quality? Yeah sure !

Anyway, Merrill has sold off this toxic paper at a substantial discount, lets call it 25 cents on the dollar, and drum roll please..... has financed 75 % of the purchase price. Lone Star somebody hedge fund.

As regular readers know. I am no Ivy league thinker but if you sell an asset and finance the bulk of the sale price, have you really sold the asset? I guess Mr. John Thain, former chairman of the NYSE, figures it does. I need to check his resume and see if he worked at Enron.

Are you starting to get the picture of what is transpiring on Wall St.?

By the way, I owe an apology to the hotel and parking valet attendants of the world, for my arrogant smearing of their good name by comparing sheep like hedge fund managers to these hard working individuals. These valets bust their butt and use their brain, unfortunately the same cannot be said of the hedge fund industry. Seems to me that going to an Ivy League school is an expensive way to hand a piece of parchment on your wall. Buy hey, it will impress your golf league buddies, while you call all of daddies friends drumming up money for your latest brilliant endeavour.

Junior: Hey Dad!
Daddy Warbucks: What, junior?
Junior: Where is the country club directory?
Daddy Warbucks: Why?
Junior: I'm starting a hedge fund.
Daddy Warbucks: But you don't have any experience?
Junior: You're so old school dad, I just need some trading software and the CC directory, charging 2 and 20.
Daddy Warbucks: atta boy junior!, I just knew the $300,000 in tuition plus the $500,000 alumni donation we gave to Harvard would come in handy, make it 3 and 25.
Junior: got it Dad, thanks! What should I call the firm?
Daddy Warbucks: just find that Greek Mythology book you never opened in college and find a name.
Junior: we're the best Dad !
Daddy Warbucks: I know !


I hear Temasek, the Singapore sovereign wealth fund, is participating in the Merrill Lynch capital raising, AGAIN. What can I say, throwing good money after bad. Some never learn from history. How does that saying go, fool me once shame on you, fool me twice shame on me.


Housekeeping notes;

I was stopped out of my short position on V at $75.45 for a gain of about 10.75 pts. on 1 unit.

I was stopped out of my NFLX short at $29.50 for a measly 85 cent gain on 1 unit, which is better than a loss.

I was stopped out of my WFC short position at $30.28 for a loss of 50 cents on 1 unit.

I was also stopped out of my BAC short position at $31.45 for a $1.25 gain on 1 unit.


Good speculating to you all and never forget that "an investor is a speculator who made a mistake and will not admit it".

Open Positions:
Long 6 units Currencyshare Japanese Yen ticker FXY @ $88.55 stop at $91.40
Long 1 unit Ultrashort Dow DXD@ $50.12 stop at $58.62
Long 4 units Currencyshares Swiss Franc ticker FXF @ $97.70 stop at $93.82
Long 1 unit Ultrashort QQQ ticker QID @ $37.05 stop at $42.87
Long 2 units Hecla Mining ticker HL @ $8.50 stop at $8.09
Long 2 units Ultrashort 20yr Treasury ticker TBT @ $67.85 stops at $69.24/68.32
Long 1 unit SPDR Gold shares ticker GLD @ $91.55 stop at $89.19

Saturday, July 26, 2008

Bank America Short update-BAC

Housekeeping notes;

I am lowering my stop on Bank America to $31.46. It is always nice to get an immediate move in your favor which offers some insulation from market noise.

I am also lowering my stop on Wells Fargo to $30.26, which is just above my entry level.

I am in no way doubting my short in these 2 financials, for they are as sick and contaminated as the rest, notwithstanding what their cheerleaders may propagandis. You must be respectful of the fact that you can never underestimate the conviction of delusional short bus riding equity managers in charge of other peoples money. These are desperate times for performance and I would assume many of the hedge fund valet boyz, rather than cut their losses, as true pros would do are doubling down in the financials. It will end in ruin but that doesn't mean that cannot take some courageous shorts down with them.

Neflix posted supposed great numbers and what did the stock do.... if you're long don't ask but if you're short, it did squat.

Good speculating to you all and never forget that "an investor is a speculator who made a mistake and will not admit it".

Open Positions:
Long 6 units Currencyshare Japanese Yen ticker FXY @ $88.55 stop at $91.40
Long 1 unit Ultrashort Dow DXD@ $50.12 stop at $58.62
Long 4 units Currencyshares Swiss Franc ticker FXF @ $97.70 stop at $93.82
Long 1 unit Ultrashort QQQ ticker QID @ $37.05 stop at $42.87
Long 2 units Hecla Mining ticker HL @ $8.50 stop at $8.09
Long 2 units Ultrashort 20yr Treasury ticker TBT @ $67.85 stops at $69.24/68.32
Long 1 unit SPDR Gold shares ticker GLD @ $91.55 stop at $89.19
Short 1 unit of Visa ticker V @ $86.25 stop at $75.43
Short 2 units of Netflix ticker NFLX @ $30.35 stop at $29.43
Short 1 unit Wells Fargo ticker WFC @ $29.90 stop at $30.26
Short 1 unit Bank America ticker BAC @ $32.70 stop at $31.41

Some Chart Continuing Ed.

I received an email asking why I would wish to buy what is rising and making new highs and sell what is falling making new lows. In response I offer the following 4 case studies in an attempt to continue to educate ourselves in the field of speculation.


The tape on Crocs (chart above) would permit someone to write a lengthy PhD paper. Yes very easy to say in hindsight. The chart above contains my last comments made Dec 17,07 in a post Gold and Crocs, before I moved on to greener pastures. Do you think I would have had the brains to take my own advice and short it thru $39. Was a move to 10 and below not attractive enough a scenario? The signals not only to get short and STAY short were aplenty. The gap down in early Nov, the break of the bear flag in late Dec, and the continually forging of lower highs and lower lows. I know, you are thinking how could you expect me to short a stock with a product everyone (strangely) loves after it had already dropped from 75 to 39. Didn't I miss the move? I should think this chart, consider it exhibit 1 quashes that argument. Remind me to get my head examined immediately.

The tape on Blue Nile (chart above) shows where I outlined a textbook head and shoulders topping pattern. Readers know I went short NILE as the neckline was violated to the downside only to be shaken loose and stopped out. At the time a reader had emailed asking why I would consider shorting a stock that had already dropped from $105 to $72. In hindsight I should have persevered and been right back on this trade. Consider this chart exhibit 2 in defense of selling what is falling and making new lows.

The tape on Garmin (chart above) shows my last comments at the time on the stock. Originally I believed the action of Oct-Nov to be a continuation rectangle on Garmin. The stock broke and rallied back into the rectangle, failing to recover more than half the distance, a clear sign the bears were in charge. Needless to say, once that last rally fizzled and those "in the know" unloaded their stock on the knaves out there who still believe a bargain is measured by how many points off the top the stock has sold off, the stock commenced its free fall. But don't fret Garmin is a wonderful company with a fantastic product. Consider this chart exhibit 3 in the defence of selling short low and covering back even lower.


Just so you don't think I am a perma bear, I have included the tape of James River Coal (chart above). In my last post on JRCC, even then I counselled myself and others to be patient. Now, if only I knew what the darn word means! The stock bottomed and turned offering a patient and disciplined speculator plenty of higher highs and higher lows with which to guide his/her actions. $16, $20, $24, $26.75 all speak loudly to this speculator. Now, how on earth could a trader buy a stock at $26.75 after it had run from $4? Consider this exhibit 4 in the case of buying high and selling higher.

These 4 charts should be a distinct reminder that your speculative endeavours can run much farther to the upside than you can possibly imagine when you start and that the converse is true, that shares, of even the most venerable of names can fall farther than you can imagine, ruining your monetary capital, your mental trading capital, along with turning you into a plain ol' miserable person.
Ask yourself how comforting it is to own General Electric, Proctor and Gamble, or Merck when they have declined significantly, and are still dropping. You can stop listening to the drivel Vince Farrell spouts about dividends, cushioning the blow. How many years of dividends have been vaporized by GE's decline from $50 since 2000.
I am taking a break on Monday and Tuesday of this week. I will be monitoring the markets as I always do but I will not be posting. Of course if something really crazy catches my eye, like say Sheila Blair of the FDIC along with the Chris Cox of the SEC claiming that bloggers and shorts are responsible, not only bank runs and the demise of financial shares, but also West Nile virus, the bird flu and the common cold, then of course I will post on it !
Good speculating to you all, have a great weekend and please, please never, ever forget that "an investor is a speculator who made a mistake and will not admit it".

Friday, July 25, 2008

End of the Week Rant

The news of the day was something I am sure most of you out there heard little about. The news was that the National Australia Bank wrote down its book of CDO's to the tune of 90%. That means they're worth about 10 cents on the dollar! The implications of this for the U.S. financials is ominous. But you have nothing to worry as they will simply defer the day of reckoning and move said assets to the level 3 holding bin. Are you buying these cheap financials based on the proclamations of the shills on pompom TV.

Did you hear that Sheila Blair thinks the blogs are responsible for starting bank runs. I am now confused. First we are told that Senator Schumer was responsible for igniting the bank run on IndyMac, then the SEC told us the short sellers are responsible for shares of financial shares declining, and now we hear the blogs are spreading misinformation regarding solvency of banks.

Just like the pollyannas who claimed we were talking ourselves into an economic malaise, Ms. Blair subscribes to the same school of ignorance. That by discussing THE FACTS surrounding problematic banking issues can incite a bank run. Ergo, if you ignore the problem and don't talk about the problem it will go away.

This is just beyond funny. There is reportedly 90 banks on the FDIC's critical list which by the way, the FDIC will not share with us, probably because information like that is on a need to know basis and we don't need to know. For those keeping score, IndyMac wasn't even on that FDIC list before it failed.

What is it they do with mushrooms?.... oh yeah..... keep em' in the dark and feed em' shit!

The capital markets in the U.S. are in a complete and utter shambles. The SEC is useless, as Senator Bunning aptly put it, the Fed is the systemic risk, and the Treasury is complicit with the banks and Wall St. I cannot sugar coat it and better, it is just a complete and utter disaster. Men like JP Morgan would roll in their grave at not at what has transpired but rather the response to it.

Men like Morgan has been around enough to know bad speculating decisions, regarding leverage, lending, and trading, etc have been made all through history. The difference between then and now is before this idiocy was fenced off and contained to the offending parties, whereas now we are socializing them by spreading them to the taxpayer. Karl Denninger over at Market Ticker recently put it into perfect perspective ;


The bottom line: The bad debt must be "ringfenced" and the losses forced to be taken. Government must not contaminate itself with this trash, as it is entirely possible for an expanding default bubble to engender even more defaults and down this road lies the potential destabilization of our currency and government. We must have some adults show up at this drunken creditfest and remove the tap from the damn keg! This situation will not get better on its own accord nor can it be fixed through "bailouts" or "handouts."

Therein lies the essence of speculation, that you will be wrong, it is the nature of the beast. But can you keep your losses small so as they do not overwhelm you and the boat you are in. You goal has to be to live to trade another day. The powers that be not only are not interested in rectifying the situation they are aiding and abetting the guilty offenders. They WILL NOT PROTECT YOU !! You must take action to protect yourself. To effect this....

I am short equities via a long position in DXD and QID.
I am short long dated U.S. Treasuries via a long position in TBT.
I am short the U.S. dollar via a long position in the Japanese Yen FXY and the Swiss Franc FXF.
I am long gold via a long position in GLD

The government will not quarantine the outbreak of the deadly virus called losses. Now only will the not quarantine these losses but Bernanke, Paulson & Co. are intentionally contaminating the government balance sheet with this toxic virus via backstopping Fannie and Freddie debt, swapping illiquid CDO's and CLO's from Wall St, etc. By the way, the Fed will not tell us what the paper is that the Wall St. firms have been pledging when they access the discount window.

I wish the facts were different. I truly do but they are not. You can listen to cats like Larry Kudlow, who, quite frankly must live on another planet than the one I inhabit. But why should he worry, survival is not his objective, how could it be when hubris, ego, adulation, and arrogance make up your 4 basic food groups.

Good speculating to you all and never forget that "an investor is a speculator who made a mistake and will not admit it".

Open Positions:
Long 6 units Currencyshare Japanese Yen ticker FXY @ $88.55 stop at $91.40
Long 1 unit Ultrashort Dow DXD@ $50.12 stop at $58.62
Long 4 units Currencyshares Swiss Franc ticker FXF @ $97.70 stop at $93.82
Long 1 unit Ultrashort QQQ ticker QID @ $37.05 stop at $42.87
Long 2 units Hecla Mining ticker HL @ $8.50 stop at $8.09
Long 2 units Ultrashort 20yr Treasury ticker TBT @ $67.85 stops at $69.24/68.32
Long 1 unit SPDR Gold shares ticker GLD @ $91.55 stop at $89.19
Short 1 unit of Visa ticker V @ $86.25 stop at $75.43
Short 2 units of Netflix ticker NFLX @ $30.35 stop at $29.43
Short 1 unit Wells Fargo ticker WFC @ $29.90 stop at $31.22
Short 1 unit Bank America ticker BAC @ $32.70 stop at $34.32

Thursday, July 24, 2008

Thoughts on Gold, Breakouts and Stops


The recent shakeout in gold, (GLD- chart above), has garnered the attention of even the most ardent of gold bulls, as well it should, for if you do not pay attention to your speculations you will not have a net worth with which to speculate with !!

I was not happy getting stopped out of gold because the chart did look wonderful. Since the interim low at $86.07 on June 12th GLD has had 4 gaps to the upside on its run to 97.50. Truth be told if I had be paying attention, like a speculator worth his/her salt should, I would have been long GLD when it broke above 87.75 back in early May. But such is the endeavour of trading you cannot be all places all the time.

That being said, I received some e-mails regarding my recent foray, unsuccessfully mind you, into the gold and crude markets. The comments ranged from my stops were too tight, I shoulda been more patient, to why would you ever sell gold? All of the comments have some merit, but I have a pre-arranged risk profile that tells me position size and dollar amount at risk. It is this was that I can continue to take LOTS and LOTS of small losses and take VERY LARGE gains ! I understand there are some bulls in various speculations like crude, gold, KO, Berkshire Hathaway, that they "will never sell". I truly wish you well because down this road lies eventual ruin, no matter how venerable the name or the import strategic or otherwise of the commodity.

I am quite content to get stopped out, buy back in, get stopped out, buy back in, continually. Because I know that as long as I have not lost my technical mind, the breakout will occur and off to the races we will be. It also helps as I do own physical gold and silver which helps me sleep quite well at night.

I once read a story of a trader (if I have shared this story, please bear with me) who had an initial signal to buy, I believe at $20, the position go to 21.5 only to fall back and stop him out. He got a 2nd signal to buy thru 21.50, the position go to 22.25 only to fall back and stop him out. This happened 4 consecutive times on the same position. Each time he re-evaluated the merits of the trade, which were still apparent. Finally the 5th signal to buy came at $25, and he had the patience to enjoy the trade, riding to to the $50 area.

The point here is are you patient enough, with the conviction, (notice I did not say stubborn)to stick to your analysis and execute? I would hazard a guess that 90% of all professional full time traders would not have come back for a 5th helping. I can always buy back into my position no matter how many times I get whipped out.


Housekeeping notes;
In my haste to post, I made some numerical errors. That being my stop level on my Bank America short trade. When I announced the trade I wrote the BAC short entry as $32.60 and the stop as $32.32 which makes no sense as a stop on a short must be above the current level, just as a stop on a long must be below the current level. In the open position section I put the correct stop number down which was $34.32

My apologies for the error.

Good speculating to you all and never forget that "an investor is a speculator who made a mistake and will not admit it".

Open Positions:
Long 6 units Currencyshare Japanese Yen ticker FXY @ $88.55 stop at $91.40
Long 1 unit Ultrashort Dow DXD@ $50.12 stop $58.62
Long 4 units Currencyshares Swiss Franc ticker FXF @ $97.70 stop at $93.82
Long 1 unit Ultrashort QQQ ticker QID @ $37.05 stop at $42.87
Long 2 units Hecla Mining ticker HL @ $8.50 stop at $8.09
Long 2 units Ultrashort 20yr Treasury ticker TBT @ $67.85 stops at $69.24/68.32
Long 1 unit SPDR Gold shares ticker GLD @ $91.55 stop at $89.19
Short 1 unit of Visa ticker V @ $86.25 stop at $75.43
Short 2 units of Netflix ticker NFLX @ $30.35 stop at $29.43
Short 1 unit Wells Fargo ticker WFC @ $29.90 stop at $31.22
Short 1 unit Bank America ticker BAC @ $32.70 stop at $34.32

Getting Long Gold....again.

Getting long gold once again via my preferred vehicle, the SPDR Gold shares ticker GLD.

Long 1 unit of GLD here at $91.45 with a stop at $89.19



Good speculating to you all and always remember that "an investor is a speculator who made a mistake and will not admit it".

Open Positions:
Long 6 units Currencyshare Japanese Yen ticker FXY @ $88.55 stop at $91.40
Long 1 unit Ultrashort Dow DXD@ $50.12 stop $58.62
Long 4 units Currencyshares Swiss Franc ticker FXF @ $97.70 stop at $93.82
Long 1 unit Ultrashort QQQ ticker QID @ $37.05 stop at $42.87
Long 2 units Hecla Mining ticker HL @ $8.50 stop at $8.09
Long 2 units Ultrashort 20yr Treasury ticker TBT @ $67.85 stops at $69.24/68.32
Long 1 unit SPDR Gold shares ticker GLD @ $91.45 stop at $89.19
Short 1 unit of Visa ticker V @ $86.25 stop at $75.43
Short 2 units of Netflix ticker NFLX @ $30.35 stop at $29.43
Short 1 unit Wells Fargo ticker WFC @ $29.90 stop at $31.22
Short 1 unit Bank America ticker BAC @ $32.70 stop at $34.32

Shorting Wells Fargo and Bank America

Do you really believe that all the banks have different issues? If so then you can write off Wamu and IndyMac and Countrywide off as lepers. If not then, well, we have a problem Houston. Two of the problem children are hi lighted below.


Wells Fargo (chart above) paints a similar picture to many of the other banks, massive massive rally compliments of the short covering crowd. I like where this rally has stalled out and want to bring your attention to the shooting star candle which formed yesterday on the daily chart. We have now broken the low of this bar, which is $29.86, therefore I am shorting 1 unit here of WFC at $29.80 with a stop at 31.22.

Bank America (chart above) has had one heck of a run, but you already know that from the breathless anchors on pompom TV. The meat of the rally looks to be in place and while it could creep higher, it looks tired. I am shorting 1 unit here at $32.60 with a stop at $32.32


Good speculating to you all and always remember that "an investor is a speculator who made a mistake and will not admit it".


Open Positions:

Long 6 units Currencyshare Japanese Yen ticker FXY @ $88.55 stop at $91.40
Long 1 unit Ultrashort Dow DXD@ $50.12 stop $58.62
Long 4 units Currencyshares Swiss Franc ticker FXF @ $97.70 stop at $93.82
Long 1 unit Ultrashort QQQ ticker QID @ $37.05 stop at $42.87
Long 2 units Hecla Mining ticker HL @ $8.50 stop at $8.09
Long 2 units Ultrashort 20yr Treasury ticker TBT @ $67.85 stops at $69.24/68.32
Short 1 unit of Visa ticker V @ $86.25 stop at $75.43
Short 2 units of Netflix ticker NFLX @ $30.35 stop at $29.43
Short 1 unit Wells Fargo ticker WFC @ $29.90 stop at $31.22
Short 1 unit Bank America ticker BAC @ $32.70 stop at $34.32

Stops Aplenty Triggered

My apologies for not posting, had a comcast tech out to go over the system and tweak a few things. Back up an running smoothly today. I will be posting some charts shortly. I was stopped out of numerous positions yesterday which is as the trading universe works.

Housekeeping notes;

I was stopped out of 1 unit of my long DXD position at $60.49 which was the low of the day, are you shocked?, for a profit of just over $10 pts, leaving me with 1 unit.

I was stopped out of my long KGC position at $21.20 for a profit just over $2.25 pts on 2 units.

I was stopped out of my long GLD position at $91.80 for a loss of just over 3 pts on 1 unit.

I was stopped out of my short EAT position at $19.65 for a measley 40 cent gain on 2 units.

I was stopped out of my short DRI position at $33.18 for a profit of just over 3pts on 2 units.

I was stopped out of my short DB position at $94.25, as the stock gapped up yesterday, for a profit of just shy of 23 pts.

I was stopped out of my short FDX position at $81.35 for a $2.30 loss on a 2 unit position. I expect to be involved in this trade once again and sooner rather than later.

I am lowering my stop on V to $75.43

Good speculating to you all and always remember that "an investor is a speculator who made a mistake and will not admit it".

Open Positions:
Long 6 units Currencyshare Japanese Yen ticker FXY @ $88.55 stop at $91.40
Long 1 unit Ultrashort Dow DXD@ $50.12 stop $58.62
Long 4 units Currencyshares Swiss Franc ticker FXF @ $97.70 stop at $93.82
Long 1 unit Ultrashort QQQ ticker QID @ $37.05 stop at $42.87
Long 2 units Hecla Mining ticker HL @ $8.50 stop at $8.09
Long 2 units Ultrashort 20yr Treasury ticker TBT @ $67.85 stops at $69.24/68.32
Short 1 unit of Visa ticker V @ $86.25 stop at $75.43
Short 2 units of Netflix ticker NFLX @ $30.35 stop at $29.43

Wednesday, July 23, 2008

Morning Comments

Regarding the recent spate of bank and broker earnings announcements, the bulls can spin this any way they want, but the fact remains that the consumer is on the ropes and the housing market is in a shambles. I would counsel that other than for a short term trade, the smart money is selling into this rally.

One need only look at Jamie Dimon of JP Morgan and Ken Chenault of American Express and their comments regarding deterioration in prime mortgages and surging noncollectable debt respectively and you have ample fundamental evidence. Remember now these are best of breed in their respective sectors.

We continue to see the short bus riding equity crowd rewarding banks that claim they have no need to raise equity capital. They never learn.

Financial Potpourri

I read yesterday that SunTrust Bank (STI) sold their stake in Coca Cola (KO) in an attempt to raise cash and shore up their balance sheet. This is a position SunTrust has held since 1919. Sell your winners, keep your losers, that is a sure fire formula to the poor house. You disagree? Pull your flowers and water your weeds and see what your garden looks like.

I would counsel the management of SunTrust to maybe ditch the money losing division that makes garbage loans on overpriced real estate to people who cannot make the payments rather than dumping an enormously profitable enterprise. SunTrust is selling their winner (Coke) and buying averaging down into a loser banking.

Regarding Wachovia, I only have 2 words to say to the bulls...... GoldenWest Financial.

Wells Fargo beat street numbers last week only because it is now writing off home equity loans after 180 days instead of 120 days


Housekeeping notes;

I was filled on a 2nd unit short of FDX at $78.95 as it did penetrate the $79 level now giving me 2 units short

I was stopped out of my long SDS position at $66.85 for a gain of just over 9.5 pts.

I am adjusting my stop on HL upwards to $8.09


Good speculating to you all and always remember that "an investor is a speculator who made a mistake and will not admit it".

Open Positions:
Long 6 units Currencyshare Japanese Yen ticker FXY @ $88.55 stop at $91.40
Long 2 units Ultrashort Dow DXD@ $50.12 stops $60.49/58.62
Long 4 units Currencyshares Swiss Franc ticker FXF @ $97.70 stop at $93.82
Long 1 unit Ultrashort QQQ ticker QID @ $37.05 stop at $42.87
Long 2 units Hecla Mining ticker HL @ $8.50 stop at $8.09
Long 2 units Kinross Gold ticker KGC @ $18.93 stop at $21.24
Long 2 units Ultrashort 20yr Treasury ticker TBT @ $67.85 stops at $69.24/68.32
Long 1 unit SPDR Gold trust ticker GLD @ $94.95 stop at $91.84
Short 2 units Brinker Int'al ticker EAT @ $20.07 stop at $19.64
Short 2 units Darden ticker DRI @ $36.35 stop at $33.16
Short 1 unit Deutsche Bank ticker DB @ $117.03 stops at $93.37
Short 1 unit of Visa ticker V @ $86.25 stop at $76.32
Short 2 units of Netflix ticker NFLX @ $30.35 stop at $29.43
Short 2 units of Fedex ticker FDX @ $79.05 stop at $81.32

Tuesday, July 22, 2008

Update on Fedex Short

I have been watching quite a few items closely the last few days but Fedex has caught my eye today. Here we have a downdraft in crude today and notwithstanding the excitement of that fact on pompom TV, FDX cannot better yesterdays highs. If the bulls were serious about running FDX the crude story should have lit their fuse. Some may find this small potatoes but I find this worthy of note. Add this to the fact that the volume on Fedex is extremely light and you now start to think there is a fly in the ointment. This type of divergent action is exactly the type of clue we need to watch for.

I will be adding a 2nd unit to my FDX short position as soon as FDX breaks the $79 level.

Good speculating to you all and always remember that "an investor is a speculator who made a mistake and will not admit it".

Open Positions:
Long 6 units Currencyshare Japanese Yen ticker FXY @ $88.55 stop at $91.40
Long 2 units Ultrashort Dow DXD@ $50.12 stops $60.49/58.62
Long 4 units Currencyshares Swiss Franc ticker FXF @ $97.70 stop at $93.82
Long 1 unit Ultrashort QQQ ticker QID @ $37.05 stop at $42.87
Long 1 unit Ultrashort S&P ticker SDS @ $57.20 stop $66.89
Long 2 units Hecla Mining ticker HL @ $8.50 stop at $7.74
Long 2 units Kinross Gold ticker KGC @ $18.93 stop at $21.24
Long 2 units Ultrashort 20yr Treasury ticker TBT @ $67.85 stops at $69.24/68.32
Long 1 unit SPDR Gold trust ticker GLD @ $94.95 stop at $91.84
Short 2 units Brinker Int'al ticker EAT @ $20.07 stop at $19.64
Short 2 units Darden ticker DRI @ $36.35 stop at $33.16
Short 1 unit Deutsche Bank ticker DB @ $117.03 stops at $93.37
Short 1 unit of Visa ticker V @ $86.25 stop at $76.32
Short 2 units of Netflix ticker NFLX @ $30.35 stop at $29.43
Short 1 unit of Fedex ticker FDX @ $79.05 stop at $81.32

Watching DBA Intently

I have not commented on the Powershares Agriculture fund ticker DBA (chart above). We seem to be going through a significant correction which looks very healthy from a long term perspective. I will be watching the $34 area quite closely.

Housekeeping notes;

I was stopped out of my USO position at $103.50 for a loss of about 2 pts on 1 unit long for a very short visit, but that does happen with stops and why they are absolutely necessary.

Good speculating to you all and always remember that "an investor is a speculator who made a mistake and will not admit it".


Open Positions:
Long 6 units Currencyshare Japanese Yen ticker FXY @ $88.55 stop at $91.40
Long 2 units Ultrashort Dow DXD@ $50.12 stops $60.49/58.62
Long 4 units Currencyshares Swiss Franc ticker FXF @ $97.70 stop at $93.82
Long 1 unit Ultrashort QQQ ticker QID @ $37.05 stop at $42.87
Long 1 unit Ultrashort S&P ticker SDS @ $57.20 stop $66.89
Long 2 units Hecla Mining ticker HL @ $8.50 stop at $7.74
Long 2 units Kinross Gold ticker KGC @ $18.93 stop at $21.24
Long 2 units Ultrashort 20yr Treasury ticker TBT @ $67.85 stops at $69.24/68.32
Long 1 unit SPDR Gold trust ticker GLD @ $94.95 stop at $91.84
Short 2 units Brinker Int'al ticker EAT @ $20.07 stop at $19.64
Short 2 units Darden ticker DRI @ $36.35 stop at $33.16
Short 1 unit Deutsche Bank ticker DB @ $117.03 stops at $93.37
Short 1 unit of Visa ticker V @ $86.25 stop at $76.32
Short 2 units of Netflix ticker NFLX @ $30.35 stop at $29.43
Short 1 unit of Fedex ticker FDX @ $79.05 stop at $81.32

Monday, July 21, 2008

Thinking too Much

Pom pom TV continues to run segment after segment on where to hide in this market. I have a very simple and concise answer for them. If you are not inclined to get short, then get into cash and stay there.


Over the weekend I was sitting around thinking too much, mainly about the IndyMac situation, laughing at the irony of it all. For those that don't know, IndyMac was founded and spun off by Countrywide. Yes that Countrywide, too funny. The sad part is this not funny for the uninsured depositors of the bank as they look slated to receive about 50 cents on the dollar, if that.

As everyone well knows the FDIC guarantees bank deposits up to a maximum of $100,000 and the majority of the population believes the banks are safe. I bring this up on the heels of the IndyMac failure. Now I have read varying accounts of the cost of IndyMac to the FDIC fund. As the linked article outlines, Sheila Blair, the head of the FDIC claims that the IndyMac failure will cost between 4 and 8 billion dollars. The fund has assets of approximately $53 billion.

Now lets take the low end of the range, don't all government estimates come in at the low end on expenses?, and use 5 billion. According to my significantly defficient math this will use up almost 10% of the FDIC's current assets.

I have mocked previously on this blog how Fannie and Freddie have $80 billion in equity supporting $5.2 trillion in mortgages, I have ridiculed how Harry Maclowe amassed a $7+ billion dollar real estate portfolio supported by $55 million in equity.

Mike Shedlock on his excellent blog, had a piece last week called How Many Uninsured Deposits at Risk? From the FDIC year end 2007 material he found the following regarding insured deposits.

"The amount, from page 36 is $4,244,547 Billion ($4.24+ Trillion). Sorry, but I do not have a more current figure. It should be reasonably close.

FDIC Recap
There is $6.84 Trillion in bank deposits.
$2.60 Trillion of that is uninsured.
Total cash on hand at banks is $273.7 Billion."


Okay so using Mish's legwork which I appreciate, let me get this straight;

$53,000,000,000 in FDIC assets divided by $4,240,000,000,000 in insured bank deposits. So you can do the math at home on your handheld calculator, drop 9 zeros 53 divided by 4240 = 0.0125 multiplied by 100 gives you 1.25%

Yes you are reading that correctly, the FDIC has $1250 on hand for every $100,000 they have guaranteed. Now regular readers know all too well, I am not the brightest bulb in the room so I need someone to explain to me how this is any different than the crap that Ambac, MBIA, Lehman or your local neighbourhood hedge fund have pulled.

There is an epidemic that has swept this nation and it is called leverage and what we are finding out is that the most seriously afflicted has been the government agencies.

Once you understand this fact, it starts to become very clear why gold is running, why commodities are running, why the dollar is doomed. But why worry about a situation that is terrifying the more you think about it. I am not writing this to make you panic, I am writing this because in my opinion you need to protect yourself, you need to think ahead.

Experts in the financial planning arena encourage young people to save extra due to the industry wide held belief there will be no social security funds so why should FDIC deposit insurance any different.

Here is a question for you to ponder .....

Is sitting around expecting the government to make good on your bank deposits the equivalent to waiting for the government to rescue you from an oncoming hurricane?


Good speculating to you all and always remember that "an investor is a speculator who made a mistake and will not admit it".

Open Positions:
Long 6 units Currencyshare Japanese Yen ticker FXY @ $88.55 stop at $91.40
Long 2 units Ultrashort Dow DXD@ $50.12 stops $60.49/58.62
Long 4 units Currencyshares Swiss Franc ticker FXF @ $97.70 stop at $93.82
Long 1 unit Ultrashort QQQ ticker QID @ $37.05 stop at $42.87
Long 1 unit Ultrashort S&P ticker SDS @ $57.20 stop $66.89
Long 2 units Hecla Mining ticker HL @ $8.50 stop at $7.74
Long 2 units Kinross Gold ticker KGC @ $18.93 stop at $21.24
Long 2 units Ultrashort 20yr Treasury ticker TBT @ $67.85 stops at $69.24/68.32
Long 1 unit SPDR Gold trust ticker GLD @ $94.95 stop at $91.84
Long 1 unit U.S. Oil Fund ticker USO $ 105.55 stop at $103.58
Short 2 units Brinker Int'al ticker EAT @ $20.07 stop at $19.64
Short 2 units Darden ticker DRI @ $36.35 stop at $33.16
Short 1 unit Deutsche Bank ticker DB @ $117.03 stops at $93.37
Short 1 unit of Visa ticker V @ $86.25 stop at $76.32
Short 2 units of Netflix ticker NFLX @ $30.35 stop at $29.43
Short 1 unit of Fedex ticker FDX @ $79.05 stop at $81.32

Getting Long Gold and Crude via GLD and USO.

I expected a deeper correction on gold than we received and rather than chase it I have been waiting on a opportunity to get long once again. The recent breakout was wonderful and now we are being rewarded with an entry point as GLD corrects back to the breakout area. I am getting long 1 unit here at $94.85 with a stop at $91.84


As my notes indicate, if this were a chart of an everyday household name, the shills on pom pom TV would be foaming at the mouth screaming "it's a buy!". Unfortunately it is energy, and bull markets in energy are not warmly received. That being said this looks to be nothing more than a healthy correction in a longstanding bull market. Therefore I am getting long 1 unit here at $105.45, with a stop just below the recent lows, lets call it 103.58 and be done with it.


Good speculating to you all and always remember that "an investor is a speculator who made a mistake and will not admit it".


Open Positions:
Long 6 units Currencyshares Japanese Yen ticker FXY @ $88.55 stop at $91.40
Long 2 units Ultrashort Dow DXD@ $50.12 stops $60.49/58.62
Long 4 units Currencyshares Swiss Franc ticker FXF @ $97.70 stop at $93.82
Long 1 unit Ultrashort QQQ ticker QID @ $37.05 stop at $42.87
Long 1 unit Ultrashort S&P ticker SDS @ $57.20 stop $66.89
Long 2 units Hecla Mining ticker HL @ $8.50 stop at $7.74
Long 2 units Kinross Gold ticker KGC @ $18.93 stop at $21.24
Long 2 units Ultrashort 20yr Treasury ticker TBT @ $67.85 stops at $69.24/68.32
Long 1 unit SPDR Gold trust ticker GLD @ $94.95 stop at $91.84
Long 1 unit U.S. Oil Fund ticker USO $ 105.55 stop at $103.58
Short 2 units Brinker Int'al ticker EAT @ $20.07 stop at $19.64
Short 2 units Darden ticker DRI @ $36.35 stop at $33.16
Short 1 unit Deutsche Bank ticker DB @ $117.03 stops at $93.37
Short 1 unit of Visa ticker V @ $86.25 stop at $76.32
Short 2 units of Netflix ticker NFLX @ $30.35 stop at $29.43
Short 1 unit of Fedex ticker FDX @ $79.05 stop at $81.32

Quick Update.

Had some items on my plate and have not been able to post. I will post this some charts shortly.


Housekeeping notes;

I was stopped out of my SRS position at $96.75 for a gain of just shy of 8ps. on 1 unit long.

I was also stopped out of 1 unit of my DXD position at $62 for a gain of just shy of 12 pts. This now leaves me with 2 units long.

Good speculating to you all and always remember that "an investor is a speculator who made a mistake and will not admit it".

Open Positions:
Long 6 units Currencyshares Japanese Yen ticker FXY @ $88.55 stop at $91.40
Long 2 units Ultrashort Dow DXD@ $50.12 stops $60.49/58.62
Long 4 units Currencyshares Swiss Franc ticker FXF @ $97.70 stop at $93.82
Long 1 unit Ultrashort QQQ ticker QID @ $37.05 stop at $42.87
Long 1 unit Ultrashort S&P ticker SDS @ $57.20 stop $66.89
Long 2 units Hecla Mining ticker HL @ $8.50 stop at $7.74
Long 2 units Kinross Gold ticker KGC @ $18.93 stop at $21.24
Long 2 units Ultrashort 20yr Treasury ticker TBT @ $67.85 stops at $69.24/68.32
Short 2 units Brinker Int'al ticker EAT @ $20.07 stop at $19.64
Short 2 units Darden ticker DRI @ $36.35 stop at $33.16
Short 1 unit Deutsche Bank ticker DB @ $117.03 stops at $93.37
Short 1 unit of Visa ticker V @ $86.25 stop at $76.32
Short 2 units of Netflix ticker NFLX @ $30.35 stop at $29.43
Short 1 unit of Fedex ticker FDX @ $79.05 stop at $81.32

Friday, July 18, 2008

End of Week Thoughts

I heard someone today say that with time the financials will heal. This is the same type of thinking the Japanese banks counted on as well, that time would heal gallactically stupid lending decisions that they had made thru the late 80's. Now we all know how that turned out for them, with the lost decade, which is now going on 2 decades quite frankly.

Just as many tech speculators, ooops, sorry investors, bought into tech names at Nasdaq 4500 level and rode them all down as the Naz cratered 80% from its highs. Unable to admit their error of their ways they sat and sat and sat and sat and sat on names like JDS Uniphase, Level 3, Qalcomm, Nortel, Cisco, Intel you name it, hoping and praying they would come back.

Well, have they? Of course not. These tech 'investors' are now 8yrs into their own version of the lost decasde. You would think investors would learn. The banks and brokers are now well down this same path. The housing market is the stock of the soup the financials find themselves in. The paper they hold is worthless and they know it. People like John Thain, of Merrill Lynch, can tell you they won't sell this toxic paper at the current prices bid. They didn't like the bid 1 yr ago, and didn't sell, they didn't like the bid 6 months ago, and did not sell.

It might behove the most venerable of brokerage names Merrill Lynch to adhere to the age old wisdom that your first loss is your best loss. The financials are praying for the housing and real estate market to improve. They are getting advice I would assume, from the likes of David Lereah and Lawrence Yun of the Nat'l Assoc. of Realtors on this subject, telling them how the housing market is bottoming.

Housekeeping notes;

I was stopped out of my HSBC ticker HBC short at $79.10 for a profit of just over 4 pts on 1 unit.

I was stopped out of 1 unit of Deutsche Bank short at $88.80 for a profit of just over 28 pts, leaving me with 1 unit short still on the table.

I am moving my stop up on my Ultrashort 20yr Treasury ticker TBT position to a staggered version 1 unit at $69.24 and the other at $68.32. The position has become profitable quite quickly and I don't feel like giving it back.


Good speculating to you all and always remember that "an investor is a speculator who made a mistake and will not admit it".

Open Positions:
Long 6 units Currencyshares Japanese Yen ticker FXY @ $88.55 stop at $91.40
Long 3 units Ultrashort Dow DXD@ $50.12 stops $62.22/60.49/58.62
Long 4 units Currencyshares Swiss Franc ticker FXF @ $97.70 stop at $93.82
Long 1 units Ultrashort ReEstate ticker SRS @ $88.95 stop $96.84
Long 1 unit Ultrashort QQQ ticker QID @ $37.05 stop at $42.87
Long 1 unit Ultrashort S&P ticker SDS @ $57.20 stop $66.89
Long 2 units Hecla Mining ticker HL @ $8.50 stop at $7.74
Long 2 units Kinross Gold ticker KGC @ $18.93 stop at $21.24
Long 2 units Ultrashort 20yr Treasury ticker TBT @ $67.85 stops at $69.24/68.32
Short 2 units Brinker Int'al ticker EAT @ $20.07 stop at $19.64
Short 2 units Darden ticker DRI @ $36.35 stop at $33.16
Short 1 unit Deutsche Bank ticker DB @ $117.03 stops at $93.37
Short 1 unit of Visa ticker V @ $86.25 stop at $76.32
Short 2 units of Netflix ticker NFLX @ $30.35 stop at $29.43
Short 1 unit of Fedex ticker FDX @ $79.05 stop at $81.32

Getting Short Fedex - FDX

The time has come to get short Fedex. I am using todays strength to get short an initial exploratory unit here at $79.15 with a stop at $81.32.

Good speculating to you all and always remember that "an investor is a speculator who made a mistake and will not admit it".

Open Positions:
Long 6 units Currencyshares Japanese Yen ticker FXY @ $88.55 stop at $91.40
Long 3 units Ultrashort Dow DXD@ $50.12 stops $62.22/60.49/58.62
Long 4 units Currencyshares Swiss Franc ticker FXF @ $97.70 stop at $93.82
Long 1 units Ultrashort ReEstate ticker SRS @ $88.95 stop $96.84
Long 1 unit Ultrashort QQQ ticker QID @ $37.05 stop at $42.87
Long 1 unit Ultrashort S&P ticker SDS @ $57.20 stop $66.89
Long 2 units Hecla Mining ticker HL @ $8.50 stop at $7.74
Long 2 units Kinross Gold ticker KGC @ $18.93 stop at $21.24
Long 2 units Ultrashort 20yr Treasury ticker TBT @ $67.85 stop at $65.69
Short 2 units Brinker Int'al ticker EAT @ $20.07 stop at $19.64
Short 2 units Darden ticker DRI @ $36.35 stop at $33.16
Short 2 units Deutsche Bank ticker DB @ $117.03 stops at $93.37/88.34
Short 1 unit of Visa ticker V @ $86.25 stop at $76.32
Short 1 unit HSBC ticker HBC @ $83.23 stop at $78.42
Short 2 units of Netflix ticker NFLX @ $30.35 stop at $29.43
Short 1 unit of Fedex ticker FDX @ $79.05 stop at $81.32

Thursday, July 17, 2008

Fedex and Naked Short Selling



Remember Fedex, keep your eye on it. We are going to get our chance.


I want to touch on the subject of naked short selling. As you all know Chris Cox over at the SEC is going to save the day by preventing the short selling of many financial. I am no expert in matter such as this, but what I do know very well is that government intervention in capital markets NEVER, EVER works.





The factual evidence abounds in many developing countries. Many countries in an attempt to keep money in their economy will impose withdrawal restrictions on money leaving the country. As my friend Dennis Gartman is wont to say, "money goes where it is treated best". I agree wholeheartedly.





The SEC's attempt to prop up the financials by restricting short selling, and believe me, this is precisely the SEC's objective, will be an abysmal failure. This hogwash you hear on pompom TV is exactly that, hogwash. It will be interesting to see whom they blame and what further idiocy they come up with next when the financials resume their descent.





As an aside, I would have loved to have been a fly on the wall at the meeting where they decided the specific names to be on the short sale restricted list. The whining, the crying, the pleading, the begging, pure entertainment to see these executives get their just desserts.





And before you go off on me about the poor little ol' shareholder who has been hanging on all the way down and has been financially devastated, remember I have repeatedly counselled the use of stops and to only fall in love with spouses and sports teams. Some refuse to listen and such is the capitalistic system. Caveat emptor.








Housekeeping notes;





I am adjusting my stop on HSBC holdings ticker HBC to $78.42





Good speculating to you all and always remember that "an investor is a speculator who made a mistake and will not admit it".



Open Positions:
Long 6 units Currencyshares Japanese Yen ticker FXY @ $88.55 stop at $91.40
Long 3 units Ultrashort Dow DXD@ $50.12 stops $62.22/60.49/58.62
Long 4 units Currencyshares Swiss Franc ticker FXF @ $97.70 stop at $93.82
Long 1 units Ultrashort ReEstate ticker SRS @ $88.95 stop $96.84
Long 1 unit Ultrashort QQQ ticker QID @ $37.05 stop at $42.87
Long 1 unit Ultrashort S&P ticker SDS @ $57.20 stop $66.89
Long 2 units Hecla Mining ticker HL @ $8.50 stop at $7.74
Long 2 units Kinross Gold ticker KGC @ $18.93 stop at $21.24
Long 2 units Ultrashort 20yr Treasury ticker TBT @ $67.85 stop at $65.69
Short 2 units Brinker Int'al ticker EAT @ $20.07 stop at $19.64
Short 2 units Darden ticker DRI @ $36.35 stop at $33.16
Short 2 units Deutsche Bank ticker DB @ $117.03 stops at $93.37/88.34
Short 1 unit of Visa ticker V @ $86.25 stop at $76.32
Short 1 unit HSBC ticker HBC @ $83.23 stop at $78.42
Short 2 units of Netflix ticker NFLX @ $30.35 stop at $29.43

Getting Longer the Swiss Franc - FXF

My apologies for not posting any charts yesterday. Once I got my charting issues resolved, one heck of a thunderstorm rolled through here early last evening, knocking out the power.


I want to focus on the Swiss Franc today. I have been watching it closely and it has been acting well of late. The time has come to get involved in this trade further. I am using today's weakness in the Swiss Franc to add to an already profitable position. This is the only way I know how to trade. Adding to winners and tossing losers overboard as quick as possible. I am getting long a 4th unit of FXF here at $98.50.


Housekeeping notes;


Late yesterday, I was stopped out of my last unit of SKF yesterday at $161.55 for a profit of $57.50 pts. This trade was originally 3 units and was hugely profitable. Some may say why did you not sell north of $200. To which I respond, you haven't traded for a living have you. I am most comfortable keeping my losers small and letting my winners run. This is accomplished most readily by placing stops on winners underneath the market, preventing a runaway freight train from steamrolling your profits.


This morning I was stopped out of the following;

Lehman ticker LEH at $18.10 for a $25.5 pt profit on 1 unit.

Daimler ticker DAI at $63.55 for a 22.5 pt profit on 1 unit.


I can't complain as both these trades in venerble names were hugely profitable. The added benefit is I have 2 less positions making demands on my attention.

Good speculating to you all and always remember that "an investor is a speculator who made a mistake and will not admit it".


Open Positions:
Long 6 units Currencyshares Japanese Yen ticker FXY @ $88.55 stop at $91.40
Long 3 units Ultrashort Dow DXD@ $50.12 stops $62.22/60.49/58.62
Long 4 units Currencyshares Swiss Franc ticker FXF @ $97.70 stop at $93.82
Long 1 units Ultrashort ReEstate ticker SRS @ $88.95 stop $96.84
Long 1 unit Ultrashort QQQ ticker QID @ $37.05 stop at $42.87
Long 1 unit Ultrashort S&P ticker SDS @ $57.20 stop $66.89
Long 2 units Hecla Mining ticker HL @ $8.50 stop at $7.74
Long 2 units Kinross Gold ticker KGC @ $18.93 stop at $21.24
Long 2 units Ultrashort 20yr Treasury ticker TBT @ $67.85 stop at $65.69
Short 2 units Brinker Int'al ticker EAT @ $20.07 stop at $19.64
Short 2 units Darden ticker DRI @ $36.35 stop at $33.16
Short 2 units Deutsche Bank ticker DB @ $117.03 stops at $93.37/88.34
Short 1 unit of Visa ticker V @ $86.25 stop at $76.32
Short 1 unit HSBC ticker HBC @ $83.23 stop at $80.53
Short 2 units of Netflix ticker NFLX @ $30.35 stop at $29.43

Reprieve For Beleaguered Bulls


JP Morgan beat the street estimates today, to which I say, if you massage the numbers low enough you will beat them. This is the lot that Wall St. and equity traders are now relegated to. They will never admit it for to do so would interfere with client commission flow. That being said we must respect the tape, and for the time being, the shorts are covering and the bulls will buy any news not negative for the financials, this too shall pass.


I have posted 3 charts, the the Spiders (SPY), the Diamonds (DIA), and the Quad Q's (QQQQ). I want to bring your attention to the volume of the last 2 days. Readers know I value price as paramount, but again as Art Cashin would say, volume equals validity. Yesterdays RALLY day was on lighter volume than the previous days decline. This is true across all 3 indices. I am not poo pooing the rally yesterday, it was long overdue. I am just bringing this to your attention before you think we are on the verge of the 2nd coming, which would be understandable listening to breathless Bob Pisani and Co. on pom pom TV.








The Merrill Lynch chart (above) is fairly self explanatory. We got the official news late yesterday that they are selling their stake in Bloomberg, due to the fact that the rating agencies threatened them with a credit downgrade if they sold their stake in Blackstone (BLK). Considering the market experience this firm has, the decision to sell Bloomberg, which is far and away, the best asset they own, is lunacy of the highest order. Great traders and organizations worth their salt sell their worst assets or divisions and keep the best, under the adage sell your losers and keep your winners.


I realise that when you are under the gun and have to raise cash you must get it done. This transaction tells me all I need to know about the value of all those level 2 and 3 assets? Merrill has on their books. If they were worth anything they would have sold those. My guess is there is NO BID on many of these assets, so they are selling, as Art Cashin would say, what they can sell. I wish them well. Longs would be well served to use this rally to get out. Unfortunately, many will see the rally yesterday and today and vindication of holding their losers, convincing themselves that they were smart to hang on. Truly fascinating the psychology of the capital markets.

I want readers to pay respect to yesterdays rally but view it in context of where we are, a bear market. Whenever you want to panic and cover your shorts, or worse get long, I would counsel you step back, punch up a 1 or 2 year chart, and take a longer term view of whatever it is you are looking at.


For as the greatest speculator of all time Jesse Livermore said in his speculative classic Reminiscences of a Stock Operator, "it was never my thinking that made me the big money, it was my sitting!"

Good speculating to you all and always remember that "an investor is a speculator who made a mistake and will not admit it".


Open Positions:
Long 6 units Currencyshares Japanese Yen ticker FXY @ $88.55 stop at $91.40
Long 3 units Ultrashort Dow DXD@ $50.12 stops $62.22/60.49/58.62
Long 1 unit Ultrashort Financials SKF @ $103.90 stop $161.72
Long 3 units Currencyshares Swiss Franc ticker FXF @ $97.35 stop at $93.82
Long 1 units Ultrashort ReEstate ticker SRS @ $88.95 stop $96.84
Long 1 unit Ultrashort QQQ ticker QID @ $37.05 stop at $42.87
Long 1 unit Ultrashort S&P ticker SDS @ $57.20 stop $66.89
Long 2 units Hecla Mining ticker HL @ $8.50 stop at $7.74
Long 2 units Kinross Gold ticker KGC @ $18.93 stop at $21.24
Long 2 units Ultrashort 20yr Treasury ticker TBT @ $67.85 stop at $65.69
Short 1 unit Daimler AG ticker DAI @ $86.20 stop at $62.56
Short 2 units Brinker Int'al ticker EAT @ $20.07 stop at $19.64
Short 2 units Darden ticker DRI @ $36.35 stop at $33.16
Short 1 unit Lehman ticker LEH @ $43.70 stop at $17.64
Short 2 units Deutsche Bank ticker DB @ $117.03 stops at $93.37/88.34
Short 1 unit of Visa ticker V @ $86.25 stop at $76.32
Short 1 unit HSBC ticker HBC @ $83.23 stop at $80.53
Short 2 units of Netflix ticker NFLX @ $30.35 stop at $29.43

Wednesday, July 16, 2008

Bear Market Rally

I had some charting issues today, but I will be posting some charts now that my system is back up and running.

As for the action today, it is a prime example of a short covering driven rally in an ongoing bear market. I cautioned readers at the viciousness with which bear market rallies can exhibit. Besides, whom else do you think can buy with that type of reckless abandon?

Unfortunately, and as Carter Worth, the chief technician at Oppenheimer said succinctly yesterday, rallies like this is why we will continue to go down. Specifically, because the masses continue to hang on to their stocks, with the hope that each rally is 'the bottom' and the bull market born again.


Housekeeping notes;

I was stopped out of my short IBM position at $126.16 for a 3.5 pt loss on 1 unit.


I am also adjusting my stops on some positions as follows;



QID new stop at $42.86
SRS new stop at $96.84
SDS new stop at $66.89
HL new stop at $7.74
KGC new stop at $21.24
DAI new stop at $62.56
DRI new stop at $33.16
LEH new stop at $17.64
V news stop at $76.32



Good speculating to you all and always remember that "an investor is a speculator who made a mistake and will not admit it".



Open Positions:
Long 6 units Currencyshares Japanese Yen ticker FXY @ $88.55 stop at $91.40
Long 3 units Ultrashort Dow DXD@ $50.12 stops $62.22/60.49/58.62
Long 1 unit Ultrashort Financials SKF @ $103.90 stop $161.72
Long 3 units Currencyshares Swiss Franc ticker FXF @ $97.35 stop at $93.82
Long 1 units Ultrashort ReEstate ticker SRS @ $88.95 stop $96.84
Long 1 unit Ultrashort QQQ ticker QID @ $37.05 stop at $42.87
Long 1 unit Ultrashort S&P ticker SDS @ $57.20 stop $66.89
Long 2 units Hecla Mining ticker HL @ $8.50 stop at $7.74
Long 2 units Kinross Gold ticker KGC @ $18.93 stop at $21.24
Long 2 units Ultrashort 20yr Treasury ticker TBT @ $67.85 stop at $65.69
Short 1 unit Daimler AG ticker DAI @ $86.20 stop at $62.56
Short 2 units Brinker Int'al ticker EAT @ $20.07 stop at $19.64
Short 2 units Darden ticker DRI @ $36.35 stop at $33.16
Short 1 unit Lehman ticker LEH @ $43.70 stop at $17.64
Short 2 units Deutsche Bank ticker DB @ $117.03 stops at $93.37/88.34
Short 1 unit of Visa ticker V @ $86.25 stop at $76.32
Short 1 unit HSBC ticker HBC @ $83.23 stop at $80.53
Short 2 units of Netflix ticker NFLX @ $30.35 stop at $29.43

Tuesday, July 15, 2008

Three Cheers for the Senator from Kentucky !

Just when you are ready to throw in the towel on politicians and Washington in general, along comes a day like today. The exchange between Treasury Secretary Paulsen and the Senator from Kentucky, Jim Bunning, while encouraging is only a start.

It is about time pointed questions are being asked, that the unbridled hubris and arrogance of men like Bernanke and Paulsen is being taken to task. These 2 deserve it, as they are averging down our future prosperity into a monumentally losing trade, namely the banks, the brokers and above all Fannie and Freddie.


Three Cheers for Senator Bunning !!

Hip Hip Hooray !
Hip Hip Hooray !
Hip Hip Hooray !

Breaking a Trading Rule

I want to hi-light the U.S. long bond. The vehicle many use for trading this is known by it's ticker the TLT (chart above). Readers know I got short this via the Ultrashort 20yr treasury ticker TBT. So when the TLT goes down in price my long position in the TBT goes up. In speculating parlance this makes the TLT the underlying security and the TBT a derivative upon it. Sorry for the minutia, but I want to make sure readers understand this clearly.

That being said I got long the TBT 2 days ago on the reversal bar on the chart. It is the large black bar on the chart formed 2 days ago. We seem to be creeping up that bar yesterday and now today. I am long at $68.70 and with it currently trading at $66.90 I am showing a loss.

I want to add to the trade today, but this would break the first rule of trading which is to never ever add or increase to a losing position. You must wait until that position shows a profit, (proves you right) before you may add. Just as a general in the field of battle would not commit more troops to a losing battle, we will do the same. Saving our ammunition for winning battles.

I am watching closely the situation with the TLT. We are at a very critical juncture here with the U.S. dollar and bond market. These 2 markets while not followed closely by the general speculating public are watching intensely by 'BIG MONEY'. One of my concerns regular readers are aware of is the concern of foreigners who finance our lifestyle by buying our debt or bonds, may be getting cold feet. It is simple, they buy our bonds en masse, driving up prices and driving down rates, because we had good credit and a prosperous economy. Additional buying always came in in times of uncertainty because in times of stress, nobody was a better credit risk than Uncle Sam, hence the flight to safety.

I believe that 2 days ago the landscape changed. Amidst some panic and fear, global speculators did not buy U.S. treasury notes but rather sold them. This MUST be paid attention to !! Now it remains to be seen if these global speculators and institutions will walk away, scared of our now wanton and reckless bail out nation. Now some may say, hey these foreigners are the owners of Fannie and Freddie debt paper, they want to be bailed out.

Yes, very true. But what good is a foreign debt security paying say 5%, if the currency in which it is denominated, U.S. dollars, depreciates by 20%? Still like that trade? I can assure you that a graduate degree in applied mathematics is not necessary to figure out that this is a bad trade. I believe much of the 'flight to safety' money, if it still wants U.S. treasury paper, will continue to work it's way into the short end, leaving the long end very vulnerable.

So where does all this lead me. I am comfortable being short the long end of the U.S. bond market and that sometimes rules are meant to be bend, not necessarily broken but bent a little. Sounds like a little justification exercise to me. Needless to say, I am breaking the rule today and adding to the trade, buying a 2nd unit of the TBT at $66.90 and sit tight for now.




Good speculating to you all and always remember that "an investor is a speculator who made a mistake and will not admit it".



Open Positions:
Long 6 units Currencyshares Japanese Yen ticker FXY @ $88.55 stop at $91.40
Long 3 units Ultrashort Dow DXD@ $50.12 stops $62.22/60.49/58.62
Long 1 unit Ultrashort Financials SKF @ $103.90 stop $161.72
Long 3 units Currencyshares Swiss Franc ticker FXF @ $97.35 stop at $93.82
Long 1 units Ultrashort ReEstate ticker SRS @ $88.95 stop $92.72
Long 1 unit Ultrashort QQQ ticker QID @ $37.05 stop at $41.91
Long 1 unit Ultrashort S&P ticker SDS @ $57.20 stop $61.57
Long 2 units Hecla Mining ticker HL @ $8.50 stop at $7.16
Long 2 units Kinross Gold ticker KGC @ $18.93 stop at $17.56
Long 2 units Ultrashort 20yr Treasury ticker TBT @ $67.85 stop at $65.69
Short 1 unit Daimler AG ticker DAI @ $86.20 stop at $65.94
Short 2 units Brinker Int'al ticker EAT @ $20.07 stop at $19.64
Short 2 units Darden ticker DRI @ $36.35 stop at $35.36
Short 1 unit Lehman ticker LEH @ $43.70 stop at $24.43
Short 2 units Deutsche Bank ticker DB @ $117.03 stops at $93.37/88.34
Short 1 unit of Visa ticker V @ $86.25 stop at $80.16
Short 1 unit HSBC ticker HBC @ $83.23 stop at $80.53
Short 2 units of Netflix ticker NFLX @ $30.35 stop at $29.43
Short 1 unit of IBM ticker IBM @ $122.80 stop at $126.14

Monday, July 14, 2008

U.S. Dollar Bear Flag Broken

I have not posted on the U.S. dollar in some time. It is fairly well convered by people much smarter than I but I still watch it quite closely as it effects so many other items. That being said, a fairly simple looking bear flag looks to have been broken to the downside, which suggests further downside to the dollar. Guess the jawboning by Paulsen and Bernanke isn't enough now is it? But hey how could they have known that adding another 5 trillion to the federal debt by bailing out Fannie and Freddie, might hurt the dollar and the debt markets. Who'd a thunk that! Maybe just maybe someone with a room temperature IQ like this speculator/blogger.

The debate on short selling without an uptick seems to never go away. You see I am not an avowed short seller for to short is a bull market is folly of the highest order. The holier than thou shills like Jim Cramer want the rule back badly and whom better to ask for help than the master of obfuscation himself. The SEC should hire Cramer much like Tom Hanks character did with Leonardo DiCaprio in the film ‘Catch Me if You Can’.


My question is this, if they want the rule of only being able to short shares after an uptick, would not logic, reason and the law of physics suggest that opposite also be true. That being you should only be able to buy on a down tick. I am not the brightest bulb in the room but does having the rule for only one side of the market convey an inherent bias? Just thinking out loud on that one.


I caught Dennis Kneale waxing pollyanically last week, about bank write ups. He somehow believes that over the coming quarters and years that banks will be writing up all these assets they are writing down. First of all, they are NOT writing them down, they are slowing moving them from level 2 to level 3 to hide them. Secondly they banks are going to be taking massive earnings restatements as they re force to admit that much of the negative amortization that was booked as revenue on pay option ARM mortgages is NOT gonna be collected.


Keep this in mind the next time CNBC drags out Dick Bove or some shill floor trader, who is stuck in a long XLF position, telling you how cheap the financials are.


In a déjà vu moment, Fed officials, congressman, and other assorted government shills continue to repeat the mantra that Fannie and Freddie and solvent and healthy and have no financial problems. Yup, there is nothing to worry about. How many times must you hear this before you start to not only ignore but laugh off this drivel. Further to this, Abbey Cohen of Goldman Sachs, is urging investors to ignore the hyperbole out there. Too bad she’s not referring to the true hyperbole spreading charlatans like Bernanke, Paulsen and the like.


Some may have caught the round table discussion in which John Bogle, the founder of Vanguard Funds, quite clearly contradicted my daily dictum of an investor being a speculator who made a mistake and will not admit it.


This garbage about buying into weakness and being an investor is hogwash. I would hazard a ballpark guess that Mr. Bogle made his fortune not from investing as he calls it, but rather from the fees and commissions charged to his clients. Ask your broker how much money he makes from investing/trading as opposed to commissions. Remember those crumbs off the cake, that were referenced to by Tom Wolfe in his classic, Bonfire of the Vanities. And, yes those crumbs can be quite large !


I will state unequivocally here and now that if you do not take care of your losses they will MOST CERTAINLY TAKE CARE OF YOU, most mercilessly ! I know this because in my old stupid days I would ride a stock down, thinking how smart I was holding a position trading below book, at a below market P/E, etc, etc. I have paid my tuition in FULL, and believe me it was not city college tuition but rather the elite, exclusive, private school type $$$ !




Good speculating to you all and always remember that "an investor is a speculator who made a mistake and will not admit it".


Open Positions:
Long 6 units Currencyshares Japanese Yen ticker FXY @ $88.55 stop at $91.40
Long 3 units Ultrashort Dow DXD@ $50.12 stops $62.22/60.49/58.62
Long 1 unit Ultrashort Financials SKF @ $103.90 stop $161.72
Long 3 units Currencyshares Swiss Franc ticker FXF @ $97.35 stop at $93.82
Long 1 units Ultrashort ReEstate ticker SRS @ $88.95 stop $92.72
Long 1 unit Ultrashort QQQ ticker QID @ $37.05 stop at $41.91
Long 1 unit Ultrashort S&P ticker SDS @ $57.20 stop $61.57
Long 2 units Hecla Mining ticker HL @ $8.50 stop at $7.16
Long 2 units Kinross Gold ticker KGC @ $18.93 stop at $17.56
Long 1 unit Ultrashort 20yr Treasury ticker TBT @ $68.70 stop at $65.69
Short 1 unit Daimler AG ticker DAI @ $86.20 stop at $65.94
Short 2 units Brinker Int'al ticker EAT @ $20.07 stop at $19.64
Short 2 units Darden ticker DRI @ $36.35 stop at $35.36
Short 1 unit Lehman ticker LEH @ $43.70 stop at $24.43
Short 2 units Deutsche Bank ticker DB @ $117.03 stops at $93.37/88.34
Short 1 unit of Visa ticker V @ $86.25 stop at $80.16
Short 1 unit HSBC ticker HBC @ $83.23 stop at $80.53
Short 2 units of Netflix ticker NFLX @ $30.35 stop at $29.43
Short 1 unit of IBM ticker IBM @ $122.80 stop at $126.14