Wednesday, January 7, 2009

Consequences

We got the Intel news this morning, that their Q4 revenue declined 23%, missing a forecast that they themselves lowered by $1billion less than a month ago! Yes sirree Mr. Kudlow, mustard seed for sure. I don't know what to say to the knaves out there who are caught off guard by this news, except to say who are you listening to?

Intel management?
Government agency economic numbers?
Semiconductor trade group numbers?
Larry Kudlow?
Pimco?
Bob Doll?
and my usual favourite... CNBC ?

In the category of You Just Can't Make This Up, a reader (thx G.L.) brought my attention to the following article, outlining how over 3/4 of Americans blame the media for making the economic crisis worse by projecting fear into people's minds. Yes dear readers, you read that correctly. Yes the media is to blame. Turn on CNBC and see if you agree or if you think, that maybe just maybe we need a urine sample from those in the survey.

In the category of There is Never Just One Cockroach, Indian computer maker Satyam down 91% today as it's CEO admits he has falsified profits for years. In his defence, why not? All upside, no downside. Which leads me to all the blathering lately about confidence and trust in the markets. That we need more regulation blah blah blah. This problem of Satyam, Enron, ZZZ Best, Madoff, et al is not about regulation.

It is about one simple thing and that is called CONSEQUENCES. According to Merriam Webster dictionary it is defined as;
con·se·quence
Pronunciation:
\ˈkän(t)-sə-ˌkwen(t)s, -kwən(t)s\
Function:
noun
Date:
14th century
1: a conclusion derived through logic : inference
2
: something produced by a cause or necessarily following from a set of conditions consequences of the war>
3 a
: importance with respect to power to produce an effect consequence> b: social importance
4: the appearance of importance ; especially :
self-importance


Quite frankly, we have no consequences of any significance.

Quick reader quiz.

You embezzle/siphon, call it what you will, $25 million to your benefit from a public entity via falsified reports etc. Would you do 6-10 yrs in the state country club, errr excuse me correctional facility in exchange?

Quick Answer.

In a heartbeat, standing on my head, in a pink jumpsuit and all !! (apologies to Sheriff Joe Arpaio)

Until the punishment starts to extraordinarily exceed the crime, there is and will be no deterrent. Do you really believe jail is a consequence? Think about the lives the Madoff's, I use his name as it is easy and recognizable, and his ilk of the world have destroyed. How these people who were defrauded by the likes of him sit still and simply take it is beyond this writers comprehension. Prozac maybe?

Do you think Mr. Madoff, had he not lived in and among such a tolerant, passive, oblivious populace might have thought twice about his swindle, had he, lets say committed said fraud upon the founding fathers of this country? How long do you think Mr. Madoff would have lived once being uncovered by them? This blogger would seem to think that the words Madoff, hanging and post haste, would all come together quite quickly !

I realise many among us today would like to rehabilitate Mr. Madoff to have him return to society to babysit our grandchildren, and manage our charitable finances once again but not our founding fathers. No, these men were logical forward thinking visionaries who realized that cancers needed to be removed. Sadly men like them would most probably end up in detained at Guantanamo in today's environment.

Housekeeping notes;

I was stopped out of SRS yesterday at $49.40 for a loss of 4pts on 1 unit. Boy that didn't take long now did it !


Good speculating to you all and never forget that "an investor is a speculator who made a mistake and will not admit it".

Open Positions:
Long 1 unit Ultrashort MSCI EAFE ticker EFU @ $88.80 stop at $84.67
Long 1 unit Ultrashort Financials ticker SKF @ $102.60 stop @ $99.47
Long 1 unit Ultrashort S&P500 ticker SDS @ $66.15 stop @ $63.77
Short 1 unit Darden ticker DRI @ $27.70 stop @ $30.12

No comments: