Friday, January 9, 2009

Some Random Thoughts


Is anyone out there paying attention to JP Morgan? ticker JPM. I suggest you might want to !

I keep wondering whether the pom pom network has become the official information organ of Pimco? Are there no other managers available with which the CNBC pretty faces can grovel to? Gross, McCulley, El Erian have a nice set up going. Congrats to them on pulling it off. Nice to have a free venue to spout your position enhancing propaganda. Guys like these will sell out all principles they might have had to further a position they may hold, yet these are kind we hold up and worship. Pathetic.


Yeah, yeah I know. I'm just jealous. There could be absolutely no rational basis for my incessant whining now could there? Now don't get me wrong the braintrust of Pimco mentioned above are brilliant but where I get angered is their seemingly nonchalant attitude to the destruction of the Fed and government's balance sheet. Do they not care? Are they not outraged as I am? If so, then lets see it, or in the least show some giddy in your up when speaking on the subject.

I caught retail analyst Howard Davidowitz yesterday on CNBC waxing about the debacle that is retail. He also repeated his previous comments about commercial real estate being in a depression. He specifically cited General Growth properties (ticker GGP) as bankrupt. Now fancy that, funny how that happens when you owe more than you make, or spend more than you earn, with all due apologies to the incoming President's mantra that we can spend our way out of this. Based on his logic GGP should borrow their way out of it.

The whole mess at it's roots, is so remedially simple, the remedies so stupefyingly lacking in foundation it boggles the room temp IQ. Take away all the fluff and pomp and get down to the crux of the issue. That is, to just blindly believe as a article of faith, that the problem of too much debt, too easy credit, negative savings, can be solved by more of the same, is just, well, preposterous.

I am no neurosurgeon nor a Nobel winner in economics, but suffice that....

DEBT IS NOT WEALTH..... SAVINGS IS !!!

This is fact, no matter how often, nor how many nor how vehemently the Nobel prize winning, 5 star fund managing charlatans tell you it is not.

The sooner we get this through our thick skulls the better we will all be for it !

These do more of the same rocket scientists, yes the same ones that orchestrated this quagmire, must be the same people that believe you can fix a long stock position you have at $100 by buying more at $90 and then more at $80. Why stop now for heaven's sake, buy more!! at $60 and then $40, all the way down!

Kinda like Bill Miller over at Legg Mason funds did with Fannie and Freddie...and AIG....and Bear Stearn. Oh yeah,,,, and Lehman, and any other financial stock he could get his hands on. Greenspan put anyone? Brilliant in its simplicity, no? Not unless you're a unit holder in his fund that is.

Housekeeping update,

I was filled on a 2nd unit long of SRS at $55.60 with a stop at $51.68


Good speculating to you all and never forget that "an investor is a speculator who made a mistake and will not admit it".

Open Positions:
Long 2 units Ultrashort MSCI EAFE ticker EFU @ $89.80 stop at $84.67
Long 1 unit Ultrashort Financials ticker SKF @ $102.60 stop @ $99.47
Long 1 unit Ultrashort S&P500 ticker SDS @ $66.15 stop @ $63.77
Long 2 units Ultrashort Real Estate ticker SRS @ $55.23 stops @ $47.93/$51.68
Short 1 unit Darden ticker DRI @ $27.70 stop @ $30.12
Short 1 unit Apollo Group ticker APOL @ $86.55 stop @ $90.83

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