Thursday, February 19, 2009

Charts of Interest. PG, JNJ and TLT

Given the carnage in the long end of the bond market (ticker TLT)I thought it time to take a look. The weekly chart above shows us at an interesting juncture.

The daily view of the TLT shows us testing the upper bound of the long term channel from the top side. I realise many think the bonds are a bubble waiting to burst. I also realize that the government is writing cheques it cannot cash, yet money continues to find its way into treasuries. I read somewhere a quote that said the dollar is backed by a bankrupt government while the Euro is backed by nothing. Interesting.

I also caught a note from Rick Ackerman who argues that much of the debt outstanding globally is in dollars and as the de-leveraging liquidation sale continues, assets are sold and dollars are bought as debts are settled. Yet something else to consider. I have no doubt where we finally end up but as I have said and as bubbles before have proven, you can go from $100 to 200 before you go down to 5.

I heard the oracle of Omaha Warren Buffett has liquidated some of Berkshire's holdings. Proctor and Gamble and J&J among the most notable.

Johnson and Johnson, ticker JNJ (chart above) is at an extremely interesting inflection point. The move out of the pennant should equal the length of the pole preceding it. In this case the pole is worth $20 points. Buffett may or may not be aware of this technical circumstance, (my guess is he most definitely is) but I am sure he is aware of this.......

Proctor and Gamble. P&G, ticker PG (chart above) has already broke down. There are multiple formations which overlap.

Good speculating to you all and never forget that "an investor is a speculator who made a mistake and will not admit it".

Open Positions:
Long 2 units Ultrashort MSCI EAFE ticker EFU @ $89.80 stop at $89.80
Long 2 units Ultrashort S&P500 ticker SDS @ $69.80 stop @ $66.15
Long 2 units Ultrashort Real Estate ticker SRS @ $53.80 stop @ $47.18
Short 1 unit Wells Fargo ticker WFC @ $20.20 stop @ $15.16
Short 1 unit Apple ticker AAPL @ $102.05 stop at $100.11
Short 1 unit Apollo Group ticker APOL @ $82.95 stop @ $86.32
Short 1 unit Goldman Sachs ticker GS @ 96.95 stop @ $92.94
Short 1 unit Microsoft ticker MSFT @ $19.20 stop @ $20.71
Short 1 unit Darden ticker DRI @ $28.95 stop @ $28.95

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