Wednesday, February 4, 2009

Seppuku

I have never been a fan of Tom Daschle the former Senator from South Dakota, influential health care lobbyist and Obama nominee for Heath and Human Services Secretary. I am not here to trash the man for his past, he is a lifelong politician which should explain everything to anyone with a room temperature IQ.

I am most pleasantly shocked by his decision to stand down. Inherently we know, again anyone with a room temp IQ, that this is the right thing to do. Not only morally but figuratively for the country. No one trusts jack anymore.

Are you shocked when the county commissioner embezzles 50K, maybe only at the fact that it wasn't 5 million, or as to quote my old accounting professor, "if you're gonna do it(embezzle) make it worth your while!"

Are you shocked when the politician has 100k in cash in the freezer and has no idea where it came from.

Are you shocked when .... hey you get the picture. I could write book after book after book on the subject till you are numb to it. As many already are and we haven't begun to include the vast populace on the Prozac, or the Ritalin but again I digress.

Back to Daschle. I am going to operate under the assumption that he selflessly did the "right thing for the 'good of the country'. I know this is hard for many to believe given politicians track record, but I am so prepared this morning to offer him 3 cheers for his patriotism. We need so much more of this that a new bull market in sword manufacturers should develop ! Now if only golden boy Geithner would take a hint and do the same.

Back to the markets we got news yesterday the the Bank of Japan announced its intention to buy banking shares to support the banks. Laughable if not so stupid. I have a suggestion to the BOJ and that is to burn the paper Yen as at least you would get the heat generated by the fire as opposed to the purchase plan as absolutely nothing will be gained.

Harley Davidson is borrowing $300 million from the Oracle along with another $300 million private equity fund who already is in and is averaging down. Harley is getting the money at a rate that would make even Rocco and Bruno blush.....15%. Yup, its just a temporary liquidity problem with absolutely nothing to do with solvency. Those damn bloggers should be locked up for fanning fear and spreading lies.

Ryder earnings estimates going forward are 1/2 the current analysts estimates which should give you a good idea of just how tuned in the analysts are to the economy. Just keep this little tidbit in mind the next time a high profile shill comes on the pom pom network crowing about how the market looks dirt cheap on a P/E basis or tells you the economy will turn in the 2nd half of this year.

Did you catch the auto sales numbers out yesterday. I guess the state of the economy and whether or not you have a job is a little more salient decision input in buying a vehicle, as opposed to Larry Kudlow's argument that crude and gas prices dropping representing a stimulative tax cut.

Good speculating to you all and never forget that "an investor is a speculator who made a mistake and will not admit it".


Open Positions:
Long 2 units Ultrashort MSCI EAFE ticker EFU @ $89.80 stop at $89.80
Long 2 units Ultrashort S&P500 ticker SDS @ $69.80 stop @ $66.15
Long 1 unit Ultrashort Real Estate ticker SRS @ $51.30 stop @ $47.18
Long 1 unit Ultra Crude ticker UCO @ $10.60 stop @ $9.38
Long 1 unit US Gasoline fund ticker UGA $21.85 stop @ $19.58
Short 2 units Darden ticker DRI @ $27.15 stop @ $28.70
Short 1 unit Wells Fargo ticker WFC @ $20.20 stop @ $22.43
Short 1 unit JP Morgan ticker JPM @ $27.35 stop @ $29.54
Short 2 units Morgan Stanley ticker MS @ $21.30 stop @ $23.82
Short 1 unit of FPL Group ticker FPL @ $51.60 stop @ $ 53.51

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