Monday, March 30, 2009

Darden Restaurants Chart -DRI


A reader emailed me with some thoughts on Darden. Given that I am still watching DRI quite closely I thought I would post a chart on it with some thoughts. What little common sense I have left tells me that "eating out" is a luxury to be severely curtailed as the economy weakens. But then again, with the trainload of short bus riding equity boyz, one sees paraded out daily on the pom pom network and littering the pension fund landscape, we can never be surprised to see a suspension of common sense to the speculative arena.

Please remember that, as many found out the painful way in the tech bubble, this suspension of common sense, while stupefying, is never ever permanent.


Housekeeping notes;

I was stopped out of my long TBT position this morning at $43.75 for a loss of a 1/2 point on 1 unit long.


Good speculating to you all and never forget that "an investor is a speculator who made a mistake and will not admit it".

Open Positions:
Long 2 units Ultrashort Real Estate ticker SRS @ $49.85 stop @ $49.78
Long 1 unit Ultrashort Emerging Mkts ticker EEV @ $38.75 stop @ $36.18
Long 1 unit Ultrashort China 25 ticker FXP @ $25.15 stop @ $23.38
Short 1 unit Microsoft ticker MSFT @ $19.20 stop @ $19.20

5 comments:

Raj said...

Hey HD,
Any further thoughts on old fav APOL. Are the technicals indicating an upward bias based on your last post re: APOL.

Thanks,

Raj-

Harleydog said...

Raj,

APOL earnings out tomorrow. No telling what the short bus boyz may do to this one. Fibonacci speaking it is still in "the box". Watching and waiting.

HD

jarret said...

HD, just a quick question about APOL. Are you still considering shorting it going into earnings tomorrow, or do you follow any sort of rules about not staying in positions going into earnings?

I unfortunately have learned the hard way recently with earnings on DRI and BBY, but I still feel that at times in order to make a profitable trade on the company you have to go short into earnings because some companies just do not report that much information on themselves at other times of the year, so the opportunity is sometimes best when the company finally is releasing information about itself. I guess you just really have to do your homework and trust the fundamentals as well as relying on technical analysis.

Harleydog said...

jarret,
thx for the note, sorry for delay replying.

no rules on earnings except it seems best to avoid the scene of earnings as the gamz the boyz play can be painful as the SEC, like a eunich, stands idly by.

Best to let the unpredictable cyclone of earnings pass over and then assess the sitation.

Unfortunately I learned long ago, thru experience (re:losses) to never trust fundamentals. They are no all lies but I simply do not trust any of them.

The tape (chart) answers all my questions, and the longer term the chart the more truthful.

HD

Raj said...

Apollo reported earnings of .77. High revenue growth days seem to be over. Latest enrollment growth was 20% which IMO is unsustainable. Price should start a slow decline soon.
Raj-