Tuesday, August 11, 2009

Tuesday Morning.

I took a few days off, from posting to re-charge my batteries. I also took the time to reread some reader fan mail with comments like;

"you're an idiot",

"your charts are laughable",

"you perma bears deserve to lose, keep shorting, it makes me money",

Not that I would ever use information like that as a contrarian indicator, but one might find it worthy to note that none of that email was sent back in March but rather over the last few weeks, well into this rally. Curious no? Ahhh, maybe it's just me.

Most of my reader input is thoughtful and much appreciated. I can take the negative jabs, it comes with the territory and is to be expected given the severity of the bear market. It will challenge the most stanchly held of beliefs. I lived as a broker through the tech bubble with next to no exposure, on a solicited basis anyway. I saw the clients leaving, I was called the insultory names. I received the colleague broker ridicule. I saw the transformation as 'everything became so easy', hence I am very familiar with the signals.

I see this market and the absolute crap that is moving it. MBIA (MBI), Fannie Mae(FNM), Freddie Mac(FRE), Dollar Thrifty (DTG), Citigroup (C), etc. Yes readers, absolute crap leading the way. Some may call them lottery picks, to which nothing more need be said, as that tells you all you need to know.

Sure Apple has moved, yes Intel has popped but they in no way are the draw in this market. Yes, dear reader every pullback is a buying opportunity. Tell me this though, who is repeating this mantra day after day after day?

Fund managers on CNBC?
Chief Wall St. strategists?
Investing industry shills?

Funny everyone with a vested interest in "keeping the game going" is pounding the table for you to buy. They are reminding you that every pullback is a buying opportunity. The train is leaving the station and you'll miss it.

Heard from your broker lately? Betcha dollars to doughnuts he has called you more in the last 4 weeks than he has in the prior 15 months. A nice rally tends to give the "we don't pay you to think, we pay you to sell" crowd a little more giddy in their up on the phone. Funny how your broker was 'missing in action' when the market was tanking but is Johnny on the spot now. Too funny.

Yes, I know some out there in the advisor ranks were in the trenches "holding hands" and diligently at your side. But this represents less than 5 % of the advisers outstanding. The vast majority had no clue why the market dropped nor will they have the foggiest when it tanks again.

Yes dear reader, as the mainstream media perpetually reminds you, NO ONE saw this coming but yet these same NO ONE's are now eminently qualified to tell us the storm is over. None of these illegitimate, hiding in the dark corners blogs of the net saw it coming either, right CNBC? Too funny. The narcissistic hypocrisy knows no bounds.

Needless to say I continue to watch the charts, closer than ever I might add, looking for clues as to the markets direction. Yes it is up right now, but to ignore the absence of underpinnings is, well, you deserve your fate for that.

Would you buy a boat without a survey? Would you not check below the waterline? Would you buy a home without a thorough inspection? Who am I kidding. None of this matters. Who cares about that when the boat runs at full throttle, all is well. You can tell all your friends that you don't care about the hull, or the rudder or the props or the engine, etc you just care that is goes. Nothing else matters. Til one day it doesn't.

Remember one of my admonitions for an indication of a market bottom, that is after a credit and debt binge that is the mother of all bubbles, will not bottom till 16-18 of a 20 lot sample of your friends has sold out their 401k and IRA account holdings and exited the market. This rally has only emboldened them in their stance that it was prudent not to panic, as the market ALWAYS comes back.

I suggest you watch the moving The Sting, more so than ever now.


Housekeeping notes;

On Friday I was stopped out of SDS at $45.17 for a loss of almost 1 1/2pts on 1 unit.

Good speculating and remind them to please don't ever forget that "an investor is a speculator who made a mistake and will not admit it".


Open Positions:
Long 1 unit US Gold ticker UXG @ $3.05 stop @ $2.68

2 comments:

Mike Masland said...

I think you should reread your own advice...

Good speculating and remind them to please don't ever forget that "an investor is a speculator who made a mistake and will not admit it".

I don't think you are practicing good speculating when you clearly can't bring yourself to take any long positions.

Harleydog said...

Mike,

thanks for the tip. I will keep it under advisement. as for longs I think UXG would qualify. thanks again.

HD