Thursday, October 15, 2009

The Beat Goes On

The big flush is coming. I repeat the big flush is coming. There is nothing, absolutely nothing the Administration previous or current, the congress, the Fed, the Treasury, the banking interests and their lobbyists can do to stop it.

It has been set in motion. The credit and debt bubble has burst and no matter what the illuminati try to tell us to the contrary. It is as C.V. Myers once said;

"Every penny of every debt must eventually be paid - if not by the borrower then by the lender"


That illuminati, elected and unelected y can try to paper it over with script (dollars), they can try to cover it up with monetary and fiscal ease, easing and elimination of bookkeeping standards, and the like. They can offer all sorts of tax incentives for home buyers, cash for clunkers, and other inch deep, mile wide remedies but you cannot eliminate the elephant in the room that none want to address. The extraordinary overhang of debt and our lack of abiltity to repay.

The alcoholic cannot be cured with more alcohol. A debt problem cannot be solved with more debt no matter how many letters the pundit trying to sell you on the premise has behind his last name.

The market knows all and senses recovery does it? Well... if so, one might be inclined to respond to that with, What was the market sensing in the fall of 2007 before it went off a cliff? Nirvana? Full blooms? Bumper crop?

On the most basic level most market participants are classified as focusing on either fundamentals or technicals. I think this leaves out one of the major influences on the markets and its participants. That being the led by the nose, bonus chasing, taxpayer backstopped prop desks of the world. These guys say they follow fundys or technicals when in reality they are nothing more than plug their nose, close their eyes and buy whatever is moving. Making bonus trumps all other considerations period and for those that think fiduciary responsibility factors into the equation I can only offer them, once I stop laughing uncontrollably of course, a bridge for purchase slightly used of course but in fine working order!

It is this type of market participant, the bonus chaser, that can ignore rising unemployment, falling income growth, and other like news. Hey, kinda like the what we just got from RealtyTrac that foreclosures are getting worse not better with "Foreclosures : Worst 3 months of all Time".

Have a look at Alcoa stock ticker AA. They released purported fantastic numbers earlier this week to kick off the earnings season. The day before the earnings results (Oct 7), the stock closed at $14.20 and da boyz proceeded to gap and crap Last night it closed at $14.32.

Under the subject of you just can't make this stuff up, here is what was on the front page of the Lansing State Journal this morning as a teaser.

The Dow closed above 10,000 Wednesday, the most visible sign yet that investors believe the economy is making its way back. "Its almost like an announcement that the bear market is over" said Arthur Hogan, chief market analyst at Jeffries & Co., in Boston.

Yes dear reader this is what passes for analysis and for which you pay full commission. The sad part is this is this quote didn't come from some rookie in the mail room or the atache to the atache of the chief strategist. No, it came directly from a chief strategist himself of a major Wall St. firm. I am at a loss for words to comment on the juvenile shallowness of Wall Street and the lapdog media's focus ability to swallow whole anything fed to them. Wall St. and their pimps in the mainstream media led by CNBC are celebrating the 10,000, consider this your contrarian indicator.

But then again when you contemplate it all, it is shallow empty, all sizzle no steak, churn em' and burn em' ideas that got us into this mess and worse and as I have stated previously, the culprits who burned the house down are showing up to put the fire out and worse co-ordinate the rebuilding. Their audacity, their hubris defies explanation.

No one has the onions to start locking them up, and letting some adults take care of the problem, which is quite simply, sever the diseased and infected limbs and SAVE THE HOST for heaven's sake!

Housekeeping notes;

Yesterday I was stopped out of my long dollar position UUP at $22.44 for a loss of just shy of 1/2 a pt. on 1 unit.

This morning I was stopped out of 1 unit of UEC at $3.18 for a loss of just over 1/2 pt on 1 unit as it had quite the trading session yesterday.

Good speculating and please remember to never forget that "an investor is a speculator who made a mistake and will not admit it".


Open Positions:
Long 1 unit Ultrashort Russell 2K ticker TWM @ $27.50 stop @ $26.40
Long 1 unit Uranium Energy ticker UEC @ $3.60 stops @ $3.09/$3.18
Short 1 unit i-shares Russell 2K ticker IWM @ $61.70 stop @ $63.80
Short 1 unit Vornado ticker VNO @ $68.30 stop @ $70.71
Short 1 unit Bed Bath ticker BBBY @ $37.75 stop @ $38.41

2 comments:

Anonymous said...

Your opening comments were exact and great. I don't trade but I always enjoy your postings. Thanks.

Harleydog said...

Anon,

thx for reading and your kind words. much appreciated and will save me a trip to my shrink this week !!

HD