Friday, October 30, 2009

Just a Couple of Facts

In what can only be termed keeping the faith, after quite a day on Wednesday, CNBC along with Bloomberg were out in full pom pom mode.

First up we get this "breaking news" video of Tyler Matheson of CNBC in which he has taken it upon himself, given the egregious sell off in the indices, (DOW down 119 mind you) to do an informal survey of a 1/2 dozen or so TOP Wall St. strategists.

The survey shows the market HAS NOT peaked for the year there's almost universal agreement there" that the market will be higher by year end.

See it and hear it for yourself here.

Next up we get Bloomberg pouncing on the wonderful rally Thursday, (Dow up 200) with this beauty of a piece in which a couple of critical thinkers had this to say;

“The fourth quarter will be the Waterloo of the bears,” said E. William Stone, who oversees $102 billion as chief investment strategist at PNC Wealth Management in Philadelphia. “We are in economic recovery both in the U.S. and globally, so you will eventually see revenue growth because you are seeing the recovery hold.”

“The stock rally is not over yet,” said Jeffrey Kleintop, who helps oversee about $247 billion as chief market strategist at LPL Financial in Boston. “The stock market can celebrate. This news is an important confidence boost, in particular to individual investors.”

Never fear dear reader as its only the funds in your IRA/401k that critical thinkers like this are managing. Heads they win tails you lose.

Yesterday was without question a wonderful rally for the bulls, with the Dow up 200, just remember to note a couple of small overlooked facts by these purported objective analysts quoted above.

  • The volume on the Spiders, ticker SPY was 25% higher on Wednesday's down day (248.7 million shares) vs Thursday's up day (198 million)
  • The volume on the Naz, ticker QQQ was 40% higher on Wed. (143.5 million) vs Thurs. (85.1 million)
  • The volume on the Russell ishares, ticker IWM was 13% higher on Wed. (84.9 million) vs Thurs. (73.6 million)
  • The volume on the Diamonds, ticker DIA was 24% higher on Wed. down day (17.17 million) vs Thurs. up day (12.92 million)

But why let a couple of innocent little facts like lacklustre volume get in the way of a good pump. Further why let the inside days that the QQQQ, IWM and MDY experienced yesterday prevent a celebration.

I want you to consider this thought if only for a moment. Wednesday's big down day unleashed lots of concern, lots of palpitations, lots of worry. What better way to embolden the bulls, what better way to squelch the skeptical bulls, what better way to humiliate the bears than to reverse course immediately, gun the market up shaking loose all the worry warts who had trailing stops and make look stupid (remember Art Cashin said looking stupid is the biggest fear on Wall St. more so than losing money !!) those that sold and then missed the next day rally.

Yesterday was what some call "the hook", where participants will now ignore and be desensitized to the next sell off expecting the recovery rally soon after. The tech bubble was full of them, until it wasn't any more.

Ahhh heck, none of this means anything other than the ranting of a delusional perma bear, right? Just remember to be consistent and keep calling me such, even when I do get 'pounding the table bullish', which I will. Odds are when I do that, most won't have the nerve to come out of their house, let alone buy stocks.

Good speculating to you all and please remember to never forget that "an investor is a speculator who made a mistake and will not admit it".

Open Positions:
Long 1 unit Direxion Large Cap 3X Bear ticker BGZ @ $19.34
Long 1 unit Direxion Small Cap 3X Bear ticker TZA @ $11.35
Long 1 unit Direxion Emerging Mkts 3X Bear ticker EDZ @ $6.05
Long 1 unit Direxion Financial 3X Bear ticker FAZ @ $19.09
Long 1 unit Ultrashort Xinhua China ticker FXP @ $8.32
Long 1 unit Ultrashort Real Estate ticker SRS @ $9.82
Short 1 unit i-shares Russell 2K ticker IWM @ $61.70 stop @ $63.80
Short 1 unit Vornado ticker VNO @ $68.30 stop @ $70.71
Short 1 unit Bed Bath ticker BBBY @ $37.75 stop @ $38.41

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