Friday, May 29, 2009

Long QID


The QQQ's look to be offering me a well defined low risk entry point on the short side. I am punting 1 long of the Ultrashort QQQ ticker QID. Remember now that this is the double inverse of the Nazdaq. Long the QID means I am short the Naz, got it? Hopefully I am not sounding like Nancy Pelosi !

I am long 1 unit of QID here at $34.95 with a stop at $33.94




Good speculating to you all and please no matter never forget that "an investor is a speculator who made a mistake and will not admit it".



Open Positions:
Long 2 units Ultrashort Real Estate ticker SRS @ $21.50 stop @ $18.86
Long 2 units Gold Fields ticker GFI @ $13.15 stop @ $11.37
Long 1 unit Ultrashort QQQ ticker QID @ $35.05 stop @ $33.94
Short 1 unit IBM ticker IBM @ $103.25 stop @ $106.44
Short 2 units Wells Fargo ticker WFC @ $25.10 stop @ $27.41
Short 1 unit Darden ticker DRI @ $36.35 stop @ $37.88
Short 1 unit Potash ticker POT @ $116.30 stop @ $118.66

Quietly Turned Two

Recently I took some heat, via email, from some readers who seem to be drinking the same kool-aid Larry Kudlow adores. The exchange emanated from my repeated calls to readers to ignore the headline economic numbers whatever they may be, jobless claims, GDP, housing starts, etc. and focus and the revisions to said numbers.

I bring this up because yesterday the durable goods number was released and the April number rose 1.9% far surpassing the expected 0.6% number. Fabulous right? The Kudlowites must have been dancing in the street which is fine as that kool-aid can often lead them to do much more dangerous things like believing in the tooth fairy and buying stocks on any and every dip.

Now we get to my point. The March revised number came out as well though you wouldn't know it from the mainstream financial media. Ahhh yes that March number which originally was a 0.8% decline was revised downward to 2.1% decline.


Not that I am the sentimental type in any way shape or form but quietly and most certainly under the radar of even the most detail oriented out there, Prudens Speculari discreetly turned 2 years old on May 16. I was not going to even mention it but vanity can consume us at any moment and I have succumbed. I had no idea the blog would last this long much less garner the widespread global notoriety that it has !!

In all seriousness, I want to thank all those who do read this blog. For taking the time to drop me comments, criticisms, questions, counter arguments but most importantly putting up with my poor writing skills and perpetual run on sentences. They are always welcome and much appreciated. Thank you all and as always .....


Good speculating to you all and please no matter what anyone tells you, never, ever forget that "an investor is a speculator who made a mistake and will not admit it".



Open Positions:
Long 2 units Ultrashort Real Estate ticker SRS @ $21.50 stop @ $18.86
Long 2 units Gold Fields ticker GFI @ $13.15 stop @ $11.37
Short 1 unit IBM ticker IBM @ $103.25 stop @ $106.44
Short 2 units Wells Fargo ticker WFC @ $25.10 stop @ $27.41
Short 1 unit Darden ticker DRI @ $36.35 stop @ $37.88
Short 1 unit Potash ticker POT @ $116.30 stop @ $118.66

Wednesday, May 27, 2009

10yr Treasury Note Yield


The chart above is a weekly view of the 10yr treasury note yield. For those that do not watch this closely we are currently about 37.00 which represents a 3.70% yield on the note. Rising yields indicate falling bond prices and vice versa.

Today we have broken a down trend channel that began back in late 2007 and should take us for a ride up to the 50 area which again is 5.00% yield on the 10 yr. What do you think happens to the economy as this happens? Now don't wait for Bob Pisani, Money Honey Maria and the rest of the boob crew on CNBC to spin it for you positive. Just ask yourself, what this does to an over leveraged consumer, over leveraged corporation and worse an over leveraged government.

As my notes indicate a break of the larger channel, the purple one, which dates back to early 2000, could and should take us for another ride which I am sure Messrs's. Bernanke and Paulson would rather not contemplate for it looks to involve numbers like 7.5 to 8... percent that is.


Good speculating to you all and never forget that "an investor is a speculator who made a mistake and will not admit it".



Open Positions:
Long 2 units Ultrashort Real Estate ticker SRS @ $21.50 stop @ $18.86
Long 2 units Gold Fields ticker GFI @ $13.15 stop @ $11.37
Short 1 unit IBM ticker IBM @ $103.25 stop @ $106.44
Short 2 units Wells Fargo ticker WFC @ $25.10 stop @ $27.41
Short 1 unit Darden ticker DRI @ $36.35 stop @ $37.88
Short 1 unit Potash ticker POT @ $116.30 stop @ $118.66

Potash and Darden

I have not lost sight of Darden, ticker DRI. The daily (chart above) seems to be forming a head and shoulders over the last 2 months. I have noted previously the import of the $33 level which was violated only to see the shorts who piled on whipped mercilessly. Ahh the boyz are having fun. I am shorting 1 unit of DRI here at $36.45 with a stop at $37.88

Potash ticker POT, looks ripe for a punt on the short side. After a wonderful bull run it seems to be bumping up against some significant resistance. I am enamoured by the low volume 3 day rally we are in the midst of and while it could be a trap by the boyz I am prepared to sell 1 unit short of POT here at $116.40 with a stop at $118.66



Housekeeping notes;

I was stopped out of my ARO position yesterday at $34.55 for a loss of just shy of 4pts on 1 unit.

Good speculating to you all and never forget that "an investor is a speculator who made a mistake and will not admit it".



Open Positions:
Long 2 units Ultrashort Real Estate ticker SRS @ $21.50 stop @ $18.86
Long 2 units Gold Fields ticker GFI @ $13.15 stop @ $11.37
Short 1 unit IBM ticker IBM @ $103.25 stop @ $106.44
Short 2 units Wells Fargo ticker WFC @ $25.10 stop @ $27.41
Short 1 unit Darden ticker DRI @ $36.35 stop @ $37.88
Short 1 unit Potash ticker POT @ $ 116.30 stop @ $118.66

Tuesday, May 26, 2009

Trifecta


I hope everyone enjoyed their Memorial Day and more importantly took a few moments, in the least, to remember those who have made much of what we enjoy possible.


This past week something happened that I find to be quite disturbing. The fact that the U.S. dollar, U.S. treasuries and U.S. stocks all fell in unison, a perverse sort of trifecta if you will. After pondering this over the long weekend the word that keeps ringing though my head is .....

re⋅pu⋅di⋅ate

[ri-pyoo-dee-eyt]

–verb (used with object), -at⋅ed, -at⋅ing.

1. to reject as having no authority or binding force: to repudiate a claim.
2. to cast off or disown: to repudiate a son.
3. to reject with disapproval or condemnation: to repudiate a new doctrine.
4. to reject with denial: to repudiate a charge as untrue.
5. to refuse to acknowledge and pay (a debt), as a state, municipality, etc.

Origin:
1535–45; < class="ital-inline">repudiātus (ptp. of repudiāre to reject, refuse), equiv. to repudi(um) a casting off, divorce (re- re- + pud(ere) to make ashamed, feel shame (see pudendum ) + -ium -ium ) + -ātus -ate 1

the above courtesy of dictionary.com

All this made me recall a chart of the long bond back in the 20's. It is a chart which I truly prefer I wish I never had seen that way I could legitimately feign ignorance. I have posted the chart once prior and yet again today (top of page) for your viewing displeasure.

I am extremely worried as saying I am petrified would convey panic to many whereas worried indicates ones ability to still think rationally. But hey, you can decide for yourself or if you prefer, you can let cool breeze Pisani and money honey Maria of pom pom TV (CNBC) decide for you.

Either way I suggest we pay attention to this, closely I might add.

Good speculating to you all and never forget that "an investor is a speculator who made a mistake and will not admit it".



Open Positions:
Long 2 units Ultrashort Real Estate ticker SRS @ $21.50 stop @ $18.86
Long 2 units Gold Fields ticker GFI @ $13.15 stop @ $11.37
Short 1 unit IBM ticker IBM @ $103.25 stop @ $106.44
Short 2 units Wells Fargo ticker WFC @ $25.10 stop @ $27.41
Short 1 unit Aeropostale ticker ARO @ $31.80 stop @ $34.51

Thursday, May 21, 2009

Now Longer GFI

As promised I have added a 2nd unit long of Gold Fields, ticker GFI at $13.05 as it moved up thru $13 level once again. I will be content to hold 2 units for now.


Good speculating to you all and never forget that "an investor is a speculator who made a mistake and will not admit it".



Open Positions:
Long 2 units Ultrashort Real Estate ticker SRS @ $21.50 stop @ $18.86
Long 2 units Gold Fields ticker GFI @ $13.15 stop @ $11.37
Short 1 unit IBM ticker IBM @ $103.25 stop @ $106.44
Short 2 units Wells Fargo ticker WFC @ $25.10 stop @ $27.41
Short 1 unit Aeropostale ticker ARO @ $31.80 stop @ $34.51

Adding More SRS, Trigger Ready on GFI

Gold Fields. ticker GFI, had a nice run yesterday only to fall back and close below the break out levels on decent volume. If I am going to own an outright long equity position it had better be something I can touch and feel and use and more importantly something that the financial alchemists can't destroy via their experiments longer term. Gold fits this bill, along with a few other items, but Gold is at the top of the list.

I am currently long 1 unit of GFI at $13.15 and am prepared to add a 2nd unit as GFI moves above $13 once again.

I am also going to use the weakness in the SRS to get long a 2nd unit here at $21.85 and will leave my stop alone.


Good speculating to you all and never forget that "an investor is a speculator who made a mistake and will not admit it".



Open Positions:
Long 2 units Ultrashort Real Estate ticker SRS @ $21.50 stop @ $18.86
Long 1 unit Gold Fields ticker GFI @ $13.15 stop @ $11.37
Short 1 unit IBM ticker IBM @ $103.25 stop @ $106.44
Short 2 units Wells Fargo ticker WFC @ $25.10 stop @ $27.41
Short 1 unit Aeropostale ticker ARO @ $31.80 stop @ $34.51

Wednesday, May 20, 2009

Long Gold Fields - GFI


Hopefully you have not lost sight of Gold Fields ticker GFI which I mentioned the other day. Well, this morning we took out the $13 level and as advertised in my post Watch Gold Fields, I am now long 1 unit of GFI at $13.05 with a stop at $11.37

Good speculating to you all and never forget that "an investor is a speculator who made a mistake and will not admit it".



Open Positions:
Long 1 unit Ultrashort Real Estate ticker SRS @ $21.05 stop @ $18.86
Long 1 unit Gold Fields ticker GFI @ $13.15 stop @ $11.37
Short 1 unit IBM ticker IBM @ $103.25 stop @ $106.44
Short 2 units Wells Fargo ticker WFC @ $25.10 stop @ $27.41
Short 1 unit Aeropostale ticker ARO @ $31.80 stop @ $34.51

A Few Thoughts

Been in and out the last 2 days so my apologies for the lack of posting. Weather here in Michigan has been outstanding so that hasn' t helped either.

You can say what you want about this market but the one thing you cannot do is argue with the tape or your margin clerk. I have no doubt that the many positions I have been stopped out of the last few weeks are going to become enormously profitable, almost embarrassingly so.

That said it does not mean you can sit back like the bulls do and get crushed when things go wrong. I adore the 'green shoots' crowd. They are so cute. They massage the earnings bar low enough a toddler can get over it then crow about the accomplishment.

If this is what they are prepared to stake their, errr excuse me, your hard earned retirement funds because it is rarely if ever theirs, then best of luck to them. You can call this rally anything you want, a wall of worry etc. but you had better make darned sure you have a seat when the music stops playing.

I caught the rettail analyst Howard Davidowitz video a couple of days ago and he makes no bones about what is going on in the employment scene, the consumer spending and saving scene and how it relates to the markets. He minces no words but this is absolutely inconceivable to the 'greeen shoots' crowd as they see gold in them thar hills.

I will admonish those that rode this market down from 13-14,000 plus to where we are now that this is a gift of extraordinary magnitude which should be seized upon. Of course your broker will never advise you of that because he does not get paid to put or keep you in cash or cash equivalents. Sorry but that is the way it works

I caught an interview with Gary Shilling by Bloomberg yesterday in which he has a target of 600 on the S&P500. His rationale is that he is using a $40 in earnings on the S&P and is allocating what he called a very generous P/E of 15 to come up with a 600 target. I would suggest that the 15 multiple is extraordinarily generous as most bear markets have bottomed in the 6-10 range.

I continue to see volume as suspect, I continue to see shenanigans being played where the futures are gunned right before the close. I am not going to sit here and tell you the PPT (Plunge Protection Team) is out in force or how would we explain the dive from 14,000 to 7.000. What I am though is not naive enough to believe that if the government is prepared to, make whole one Goldman Sachs to the tune of tens of billions of taxpayer dollars, buy the long bond in an stupefying attempt to manipulate rates, among a dizzying assortment of other mind boggling schemes I am not prepared to count them out of overt intervention in the equity futures market.

To dismiss their intervention as impossible or as a black helicopter complex would be naivete of the highest order that only someone as shallow and complicit as Larry Kudlow could embrace.

Not to worry, when it all rolls over. Windbag Bob, Money Honey Maria and the rest of the capital markets kindergarten class over at CNBC will relentlessly remind you over and over again how they saw it coming and that the rally was suspect as evidenced by their shrewd analytical questioning of guests. Gee, where is Ron Insana when you need him. Oh yeah, back on set once again.

I am not gonna beat these people over the head any more than they already do to themselves via their daily utterances of the absured. What I will say is just remember where it is coming from and who is saying it.


While away I happened to catch a story about the Obama administration strong arming hedge funds and the like into accepting the joke of an offer for the bonds with threats of IRS, SEC and other extremely uncomfortable invasive procedures not only to the funds holding out, but to the principles, and their private clients. Ahhh yes Lenin, Stalin, Mussolini, and Tito all are clapping in their graves proud as peacocks at thuggery only they could be proud of. Change we can believe in all right.

I have not commented on the GM situation and the absolute raping of the SECURED bondholders by this current administration, and before you say it, if you think the prior administration would have been any different then you deserve the pablum being fed to you. The fact that the union VEBA is getting, by all accounts 70-100 cents on the dollar even thought they are subordinate to the secured debt in question is absolutely staggering. This outright and brazen theft, which is what it is, boggles this simpleton's mind. How to restore confidence to the markets in 1 easy lesson huh? Pathetic if it were not all so illegal but what would the law have to do with anything anyway since rules haven't been enforced in years. The hammer and sickle are waiting to be stitched to the flag shortly.

Wasn't it the union that overwhelmingly supported then Senator Obama in the election? I cannot seem to remember. Why is no one in the mainstream media reporting any of this? And to think that poor hard done by Ph.D (papa has dough) Art Sulzberger Jr. wonders why his newspaper, along with every other one in the country, is headed for the graveyard.


Remember now I am a political atheist as I believe they are all the same freeloading, predominantly unemployable, grovelling bottom feeders. That said I caught this piece recently about Republican Governors planning a tea party sequel to which I have a strong suggestion for these and any other Republicans, be very careful about trying to hijack the tea party movement as your own as it will backfire even worse than you can possibly imagine. The animosity runs just as wide and as deep for BOTH political parties. Maybe osmosis might assist this idea sinking into your granite skulls.


I heard President Obama talking recently about reforming health care at the only way to get a handle on our debt and deficits. Too funny. Yes Mr. President our debt and deficits have nothing to do with thinks like Murtha's airport and the Ted Stevens bridge to no where. Or tens of millions upon tens of millions on wasted bureaucracy and pork like the latest bailout bill.

I caught a piece recently from the Oracle of Omaha Mr. Buffett where he called Wells Fargo a fabulous bank or something along those lines.
He also remarked recently that “If I had to put all of my net worth into stock, that would be the stock.” also in reference to Wells Fargo. I have no idea what Mr. Buffett is looking at if he is even looking at anything at all or if he is simply accepting at face value what CEO Kovacevich is telling him.

When you have a bank like Wells Fargo, that takes the not so insignificant step of changing it's definition of a delinquent loan from 120 days to 180 days then I would humbly suggest you aught to bring in the forensic accountants ASAP. But of course the oracle has probably already done that and my concerns are unfounded as his formula must be

Golden West Financial + Wachovia + Wells Fargo = Fabulous Bank.

Macy's numbers came out recently and if you think that is what green shoots look like then I would humbly suggest you get an eye examination immediately. Liz Claiborne, yup more green shoots to discuss.



Ford raises about 1.4 billion in capital via an equity offering. Last I can remember they have about 20-21 billion in cash and approximately 150 billion in debt. Yes, looks like a monumental green shoot, no?

Microsoft deal to raise money? I thought they had a multi deca-billion war chest? Obviously I am mistaken, unless they think they better get what's left before even that disappears. Just a thought.

SEC investigator does over 150 trades in their personal account over an 18month period.

Bank America does an equity raise when Ken Lewis has implored us to believe BAC is more than adequately capitalized.

Lowes numbers were phenomenal no? Or was it Home Depots? I can't seem to remember.


And lastly the Pension Benefit Guarantee Corp's (PBGC) deficit has now tripled to over $35 billion in the past 6 months. Yes dear readers, nothing but green shoots and blue skies ahead.

Careful out there as you might get trampled in the mad rush to see it all. Musical chairs for grown ups so to speak.


Housekeeping notes;

Yesterday I was stopped out of my short GS position at $141.80 for a loss of just over 7 pts on 1 unit.
I was also stopped out of my my short AZO position at $161.45 for a loss of 6 pts on 2 units.



Good speculating to you all and never forget that "an investor is a speculator who made a mistake and will not admit it".


Open Positions:
Long 1 unit Ultrashort Real Estate ticker SRS @ $21.05 stop @ $18.86
Short 1 unit IBM ticker IBM @ $103.25 stop @ $106.44
Short 2 units Wells Fargo ticker WFC @ $25.10 stop @ $27.41
Short 1 unit Aeropostale ticker ARO @ $31.80 stop @ $34.51

Friday, May 15, 2009

Shorting More WFC

I am prepared this morning to add a 2nd unit short to my Wells Fargo position. I am shorting the 2nd unit here at $25.10 and leaving my inital stop in place.


Good speculating to you all and never forget that "an investor is a speculator who made a mistake and will not admit it".



Open Positions:
Long 1 unit Ultrashort Real Estate ticker SRS @ $21.05 stop @ $18.86
Short 1 unit Goldman Sachs ticker GS @ $134.60 stop @ $141.76
Short 1 unit IBM ticker IBM @ $103.25 stop @ $106.44
Short 2 units Wells Fargo ticker WFC @ $25.10 stop @ $27.41
Short 2 units Autozone ticker AZO @ $155.40 stop @ $161.41
Short 1 unit Aeropostale ticker ARO @ $31.80 stop @ $34.51

Short ARO and Watching DRI.

I have been watching Darden (ticker DRI) closely. As my notes on the chart above indicate, I am looking around the table for the sucker hoping it's not me! Is $33 the check or raise move ?

The weekly view of Aeropostale (ticker ARO) shows what looks to be a massive double top. Forget what caused it (though I believe it was a short squeeze but maybe a private equity firm has a war chest of capital it will use for a leveraged buyout of a highly discretionary, teen retailer into the teeth of a recession that would make your grandpa wince over) it looks legitimate.

Also note the shooting star candle on the chart, weekly now mind you, formed last week.

Aeropostale daily chart (above) shows a stock on an almost uninterrupted run over the last 5 months. We have broken the low of last week's weekly candle (shooting star) which I will use as my cue to punt ARO short. Therefore I am getting short 1 unit here of ARO at $31.90 with a stop at $34.51



Good speculating to you all and never forget that "an investor is a speculator who made a mistake and will not admit it".



Open Positions:
Long 1 unit Ultrashort Real Estate ticker SRS @ $21.05 stop @ $18.86
Short 1 unit Goldman Sachs ticker GS @ $134.60 stop @ $141.76
Short 1 unit IBM ticker IBM @ $103.25 stop @ $106.44
Short 1 unit Wells Fargo ticker WFC @ $25.20 stop @ $27.41
Short 2 units Autozone ticker AZO @ $155.40 stop @ $161.41
Short 1 unit Aeropostale ticker ARO @ $31.80 stop @ $34.51



Wednesday, May 13, 2009

Adding to AZO Short.

It is just before closing time and Autozone looks to be prepared to close below $155 as it is trading $154.60.

As promised I am adding a 2nd unit short of AZO here at $154.60


Good speculating to you all and never forget that "an investor is a speculator who made a mistake and will not admit it".



Open Positions:
Long 1 unit Ultrashort Real Estate ticker SRS @ $21.05 stop @ $18.86
Short 1 unit Goldman Sachs ticker GS @ $134.60 stop @ $141.76
Short 1 unit IBM ticker IBM @ $103.25 stop @ $106.44
Short 1 unit Wells Fargo ticker WFC @ $25.20 stop at $27.41
Short 2 units Autozone ticker AZO @ $155.40 stop @ $161.41

GE - Mind the Gap !



I had a request from a reader, (thx J.P) to have a look at GE given it's recent tear. J.P. didn't indicate whether he was long or short which suits me even better as I don't know if my analysis has supported or opposed his view.

The daily view of GE (chart above) displays a low volume rally over the last 2 months which saw the stock more than double. As my notes indicate hopefully you have a chair as the music may have stopped with today's' gap down through a trend line, albeit a short one, a trend line no less.


Good speculating to you all and never forget that "an investor is a speculator who made a mistake and will not admit it".



Open Positions:
Long 1 unit Ultrashort Real Estate ticker SRS @ $21.05 stop @ $18.86
Short 1 unit Goldman Sachs ticker GS @ $134.60 stop @ $141.76
Short 1 unit IBM ticker IBM @ $103.25 stop @ $106.44
Short 1 unit Wells Fargo ticker WFC @ $25.20 stop at $27.41
Short 1 unit Autozone ticker AZO @ $156.30 stop @ $161.41

Short Autozone - AZO


The time has come to bring your attention back to Autozone, ticker AZO. The daily chart (above) seems to have morphed into a rounding top. A short term trend line dating back to November has been broken to the downside, was tested from underneath with a kiss and has now rolled over.

I am getting short 1 unit of AZO here at $156.40 with a stop at $1601.41

A close below the $155 level will compel me to add a 2nd unit to this position.



Good speculating to you all and never forget that "an investor is a speculator who made a mistake and will not admit it".



Open Positions:
Long 1 unit Ultrashort Real Estate ticker SRS @ $21.05 stop @ $18.86
Short 1 unit Goldman Sachs ticker GS @ $134.60 stop @ $141.76
Short 1 unit IBM ticker IBM @ $103.25 stop @ $106.44
Short 1 unit Wells Fargo ticker WFC @ $25.20 stop at $27.41
Short 1 unit Autozone ticker AZO @ $156.30 stop @ $161.41

Watch Gold Fields -GFI


I have not commented on the golds in some time but just because I have not does not mean I am not watching them. Since returning from Europe I have been doing my regular sector scans and came across an old friend of mine, Gold Fields ticker GFI. The stock was absolutely crushed since peaking in mid 06' at $25.

The weekly chart (above) reveals a fascinating pattern development which if correct imply much higher prices. $19 being the first target and $23 the next. We are out of the channel now and a move above $12.75 would take out the neckline of the inverted H & S.
I intend to get long 1 unit of GFI on a move thru $13.



Good speculating to you all and never forget that "an investor is a speculator who made a mistake and will not admit it".


Open Positions:
Long 1 unit Ultrashort Real Estate ticker SRS @ $21.05 stop @ $18.86
Short 1 unit Goldman Sachs ticker GS @ $134.60 stop @ $141.76
Short 1 unit IBM ticker IBM @ $103.25 stop @ $106.44
Short 1 unit Wells Fargo ticker WFC @ $25.20 stop at $27.41

Tuesday, May 12, 2009

Short SRS, Chart of IBM, WFC, and GS

The 60 minute chart on Wells Fargo (above) shows a nice potential double top into a nice channel. As my notes indicate a break of $23.50 by WFC would compel me to add a 2nd unit short.

The daily chart on Goldman Sachs (above) shows a bearish engulfing bar a couple of trading sessions ago which can serve as our pain threshold. The boyz know this if only the SEC did too.


A daily view of IBM (above) looks appealing as the green areas represents the box and looks like a safe (relative term) to put out a short.



I am also taking a punt with a unit position of SRS once again here at $20.95 with a stop at $18.86


Good speculating to you all and never forget that "an investor is a speculator who made a mistake and will not admit it".


Open Positions:
Long 1 unit Ultrashort Real Estate ticker SRS @ $21.05 stop @ $18.86
Short 1 unit Goldman Sachs ticker GS @ $134.60 stop @ $141.76
Short 1 unit IBM ticker IBM @ $103.25 stop @ $106.44
Short 1 unit Wells Fargo ticker WFC @ $25.20 stop at $27.41

Short IBM, WFC, and GS

I am punting 1 unit short of Wells Fargo here at $25.30 with a stop at $27.41

I am punting 1 unit short of Goldman Sachs here at $134.70 with a stop just above the engulfing bar made a couple days ago at $141.76

I am punting 1 unit short of IBM here at $103.35 with a stop at $106.44

Some charts to follow shortly.


Good speculating to you all and never forget that "an investor is a speculator who made a mistake and will not admit it".


Open Positions:

Short 1 unit Goldman Sachs ticker GS @ $134.60 stop @ $141.76
Short 1 unit IBM ticker IBM @ $103.25 stop @ $106.44
Short 1 unit Wells Fargo ticker WFC @ $25.20 stop at $27.41

Back at Work.

I am now back home having returned late Sunday. I took the liberty of using yesterday to get caught up with current market shenanigans (sorry, but that is exactly what they are) as the SIM card in my crack berry would not work overseas which ending up being a good thing as the rest was worth it.

In my usual way I will jump around covering a multitude of thing which regular readers know I am want to do as I am not a writer by trade, rather a speculator but why let that stop me especially given the infamous and now magically reincarnated Henry Blodgett was a English major and proof reader for Random House prior to being THE internet analyst for Wall St. but I digress.

Europe was wonderful. Weather was wonderful. Had a family member getting married in Italy and my wife and I had never been to Paris so we added that on. The architecture of Paris is truly remarkable. The Arc de Triumph, Grand Palais, Louvre, Notre Dame, Sacre Cour, Napoleon's tomb. Yes, we did it all in 3 days with my comfortable converse all stars under foot. It truly was a grander era !

We spent May day afoot in the Latin Quarter off the old University with the masses of demonstrators of various affiliations. The day was non violent but there was an enormous and I mean enormous police and military presence both visible and non. The reason I say non is that my wife and I, after lunch, took a wrong turn down a lane way a block off the major thoroughfare only to get face time with about 50-75 French special forces, at least that is what they looking like with their uniform and weaponry. They were just hangin' out checking and re checking their gear. We happened across 3 units like this as we like to go off the beaten track quite often.

Lot of discontent among the discussion of the crowd. Majority was younger and mostly male. 19% tax on all dining bills which is outrageous. I had the opportunity to have a wonderful conversation with a taxi owner, as he just bought his medallion, who hailed from India and now a Parisian for over 15 yrs. His English was excellent (via Britain) and so were his insights. We talked about the immigration issue and he explained how many are coming to France from former protectorate countries like Ivory Coast, Algeria, Morocco, etc to work but that they hate the country. He claimed that many indiscretions/atrocities were committed by the French before they left those places as the root of this. My history and knowledge of this is weak so I will take him at his word.

As for Italy I will only say this, if you have the opportunity to visit the Amalfi coast, in particular Positano and Praiano do not pass it up. The food is fantastic, the weather is grand, the view is something to behold and the people are just special, friendly beyond call. The driving, well that's another matter, as they all turn into Mr. Hyde but we cannot be perfect now can we.

GM. Can you spell dilution. That is if they make it. When do the think the short bus riding equity boyz will realise this? Probably the morning bankruptcy is announced and the stock doesn't open like what happened with General Growth Properties (GGP).

Bank stress test. You need 10x more in capital. You don't like that number because your Harvard MBA's tell you that you only need 2x so you whine and cry which on Wall St. is called negotiating and get Tax cheat treasury boy to lower the number to 4x. Then the shills and charlatans on CNBC come and spin it all positive juicing the market with which your bank can now jam a stock offering out to raise capital at much more agreeable pricing to you, diluting existing shareholders all the while dancing the crowd into a tizzy. All is good!

Where I come from this is called a pump and dump and if you cannot see it for what is is, a pump and dump, then you're either a few bricks short of the required load or your complicit in the scam. I again refer you to the movie Boiler Room for the game plan of this scam. This one is just being played out on a much grander scale. Which reminds me of my last night in Paris.

My wife and I had just crossed the Seine River with the beautiful Notre Dame cathedral in the distance. We were passing the St. Michele Metro station to witness a large crowd being entertained by 2 characters dancing (jumping) wildly to loud music. The crowd, a hundred or more, was enthralled as they danced to which my wife remarked "look at those 2 working the crowd." My response was "2? Maybe more like 5 or 6 if you include their pickpocket buddies in the crowd" as we proceeded to get the heck away from that 'operation' which fortunately I was not the only one who noticed, as 4 French police officers were moving in to shut it down.

Those 2 guys and their plants in the crowd use the same tactics that Wall St. is employing right now with these zombie bank equity offerings. I wish the buyers of these issues much luck with these positions as you will certainly need it not withstanding all the gushing and love from Bob Pisani. Actually expect him to tell you the subsequent decline was "expected". No different than street thieves and hustlers.


Elizabeth Coleman the Federal Reserve Inspector General. Click here for this link to see the you tube version of her mumbling and fumbling. Comical. How do I get that job? Wanted buffoon, 6 figure pay and commensurate benefits, nice gig. My question is simple, Is she somehow related to that eunuch Chris Cox formerly of the SEC? Just wondering.


Housekeeping notes;

While on vacation I was smacked out of my DRI short at $38.60 for basically a break even trade.

Good speculating to you all and never forget that "an investor is a speculator who made a mistake and will not admit it".


Open Positions:

None

Sunday, May 3, 2009

Vacation

The following (below) is the post which I thought was sent out Wednesday around midday but due to my error was not. It does tend to help the posting process when you actually hit the publish post button on blogger, wow! I am in Paris and have been since Thursday and thankfully now have access to internet. I am enjoying the sights and sounds of Paris and will be monitoring events on a very sporadic basis. I will not be posting in any meaningful way as I would like to enjoy this vacation but will most definitely have a lot to say upon my return. (May Day here in Paris was quite the experience!)



I am going to be out of the country travelling to France and Italy due the wedding of a family member. The Italy part is the destination point for the wedding with my wife and I adding the Paris part due to the fact neither of us have ever been there.

Therefore I will be away the remainder of this week and all of next. I am expecting my blackberry to be functioning while away so I can stay in touch with the daily market shennanigans, which by the way, is the only way to properly describe this market right now but who am I kidding right? I am just a frustrated bull who cannot get his arms around all the fabulous economic 'green shoots' right Mr. Kudlow?



Housekeeping notes;

I was stopped out of my SDS position Wednesday at $63.25 for a loss of 3 pts on 1 unit.
I am also lowering my stop on DRI to breakeven at $38.56

Good speculating to you all and never forget that "an investor is a speculator who made a mistake and will not admit it".


Open Positions:
Short 1 unit Darden ticker DRI @ $38.50 stop @ $38.56