Friday, March 19, 2010

Fedex and Caterpillar

In yet another example of something you simply cannot up, friend and fellow blogger Michael Panzner has brought to my attention quite the interesting contradiction today that all should be aware of.

In his post, Shouldn't Somebody Be Looking Into This?, Mike hi-lights the reversal in economic opinion the cats over at Fedex seem to be having.

Many believe the recovery and that if you simply give it time, it will improve day by day or in the case of Fedex you might even have to wait a week.

Such is the case here. Lets rewind back to March 11 this year, yes March 11 of last week, where courtesy of the FT we got this news flash that Fedex Warns on U.S. Recovery.

Now fast forward back to today where Fedex Sees Economic Recovery Spreading.
So which is it.

Mike Panzner sums it up this way:

"I'm not sure if 1) somebody has been misquoted; 2) this is one of the most egregious examples of expectations management I've ever seen; or, 3) somebody forgot to take their meds (or took way too much), but either way, shouldn't an editor, a regulator, or a doctor be looking into this?"

This is the market in which we live. This is the political climate in which we live. Sadly it seems we get what we deserve.

Further to this Karl Denninger over at Market Ticker brings up an interesting piece he dug up regarding the Caterpillar numbers. His post If the Economy is Recovering....(CAT) offers the following;

Co reports retail sales of machines declined 20% y/y in Feb and sales of reciprocating & turbine engines to retail users & OEMs declined 33% y/y in Feb

Another source off the wire has even uglier numbers:

 Caterpillar Inc Reports 3 month dealer statistics;
Dec-Feb sales - filing
- Retail Sales of Machines:
              Feb.10    Jan.10    Dec.09
Asia/Pacific DOWN 2% UP 1% DOWN 12%
EAME* DOWN 22% DOWN 35% DOWN 41%
Latin America DOWN 20% DOWN 15% DOWN 24%
ROW* DOWN 15% DOWN 19% DOWN 28%
North America DOWN 30% DOWN 40% DOWN 46%
World DOWN 20% DOWN 27% DOWN 35%
Sales of Reciporcating & Turbine Engines
to Retail Users & OEMS by Business Sector
                Feb.10   Jan.10   Dec.09
Electric Power DOWN 26% DOWN 27% DOWN 27%
Industrial DOWN 15% DOWN 22% DOWN 44%
Marine DOWN 23% DOWN 18% DOWN 29%
Petroleum DOWN 47% DOWN 46% DOWN 46%
Total DOWN 33% DOWN 33% DOWN 36%

(Hattips to rebeltraders and aztrader)

The above in blue was pulled directly from Karl's site. (thanks Karl)

The above 2 items harken back to that old line of ...... if it looks like a duck, if it sounds like duck, if it smells like a duck, maybe just maybe it is. In our case you simply need to substitute bullshit for duck and you're good to go.

Good speculating to you all and please remember to never forget that "an investor is a speculator who made a mistake and will not admit it".

Open Positions:
Long 1 unit Direxion Large Cap 3X Bear ticker BGZ @ $19.34
Long 2 units Direxion Small Cap 3X Bear ticker TZA @ $12.06
Long 1 unit Direxion Emerging Mkts 3X Bear ticker EDZ @ $60.50
Long 2 units Direxion Financial 3X Bear ticker FAZ @ $19.65
Long 2 units Ultrashort Xinhua China ticker FXP @ $8.49
Long 1 unit Ultrashort Real Estate ticker SRS @ $9.82
Long 2 units Direxion Tech 3X Bear ticker TYP @ $10.52
Long 1 unit US Dollar Bull ticker UUP @ $22.52 stop @ $21.97
Short 1 unit Daimler ticker DAI @ $52.23 stop @ $52.23

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