Wednesday, August 25, 2010

Brilliant Analysts, Mishkin and CNBC

I am in a query type mode this morning so here goes.

Why were so many brilliant and highly paid economists so far wrong on the July Existing Home Sales numbers?

Why were so many brilliant and highly paid economists so far wrong on the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index numbers?

(the fact that their median forecast was +7 vs the actual number of -7.7 These leading lights couldn't even get the negative symbol right. Maybe we should ask corrupt imbecile Mishkin if maybe it was a typo error, for a non-disclosed fee of course!)

Why were so many brilliant and highly paid economists so wrong on the weekly jobless claims which now stand at 500,000, a 9 month high.

Why were so many brilliant and highly paid economists so wrong on July new home sales numbers.

Why were so many brilliant and highly paid economists so wrong on the Durable Goods numbers this morning?

Not enough you say? Okay, lets go back in history.

Why were so many brilliant and highly paid analysts and strategists so wrong on the Nikkei/Japan bubble?

Why were so many brilliant and highly paid analysts and strategists so wrong on the Nasdaq/internet bubble?

Why were so many brilliant and highly paid analysts and strategists so wrong on the housing bubble?

Why were so many brilliant analysts and strategists so wrong on Enron, Bre-X (remember that one!), Worldcom, Madoff, Ken Starr the ponzie artist not the spec. prosecutor, or Allan Stanford?

Why were so many brilliant analysts and strategists so wrong on Countrywide, Ambac, Fannie, Freddie the list could go on and on and on?

Why? Well maybe just maybe....

a motto of they don't get paid to think they get paid to sell?
a Sell side bias?
a lack of consequences for stupidity?
a willful ignorance?
or simply shit for brains?

It seems to me everything is unexpected until it isn't anymore. Every event is a one off one time circumstance. Kinda like operating earnings on the S&P 500 which all the analysts like to use when calculating their numbers. Operating earnings conveniently exclude those pesky one-time write offs that for some strange reason seem to appear over and over again, quarter after quarter. Go figure, who da thunk!

Maybe all these brilliant economists are, like their colleague Frederic Mishkin when he wrote his $124,000 Icelandic paper, "going with the information they had", "talking to people" or " having faith in the Central Bank".

While on the topic of Frederic Mishkin I have now watched "the video" about half a dozen times and I must admit that my blood pressure rises with each viewing. This... hang on let me get my thesaurus out.... this unscrupulous charlatan should be ostracized by the business community. That would be the real punishment for this self aggrandizing hypocrite of a fraud. Only then might he realize seppuku would be his answer though he's probably too much of a yellow bellied coward for that.

Mucho appreciation to blogger WC Varones for not only the video but also the identity of the interviewer in the Mishkin video. One Charles Ferguson, former internet entrepreneur and now independent filmmaker. He made the film No End in Sight on mismanagement of the Iraqi war and has a new film that is coming out called Inside Job on the financial meltdown. Both are on my 'to view' list.

CNBC

I want to comment on CNBC, yet again. It's really not my fault as they simply give you so much material to write about!

Just when you thought the village idiot, Denis Kneale, had been run off, CNBC is at the ready to unveil the newest replacement village idiot Simon Hobbes.

I must ask, where on God's green Earth do they find boobs like this?

I love the debate on the Fed and confidence. I love the keeping up appearances gig. Get this man to the Treasury or the Fed ASAP. Better yet get him at the Ministry of Propaganda, yes that's the ticket.

Poor Simon Hobbes, his arrogance is only exceeded by his ignorance.


Good speculating to you all and please remember to never forget that "an investor is a speculator who made a mistake and will not admit it".


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