Thursday, February 25, 2010

Olivier Blanchard, Taking Pressure off Village Idiots the World Over

With all the problems we are facing there is no shortage of pundits offering remedies. Most of the cures you come across should be filed under the folder 'Unfettered Stupidity'. But then, once in a while, you come across some that are absolutely off the charts lunacy.

Today is one of those days. The gem today normally would be filed under 'Utterances of the Village Idiot', but that would be an insult to village idiots around the globe. Today's piece via Der Speigel entitled Can Higher Inflation Be a Good Thing, comes from Olivier Blanchard, chief economist of the IMF.

"The chief economist for the International Monetary Fund, Olivier Blanchard, recently argued that Western economies should accept inflation rates of up to 4 percent. State meddling in the economy may not be such a bad thing either"

Pretty easy to see why the IMF's track record in economics is akin to the NFL's Detroit Lions won-loss record. You just can't make this shit up if you tried. Village idiots around the globe today are resting at ease with the likes of Msr. Blanchard on the loose.

In his defence, chief economist Blanchard is most probably a first rate gentlemen and all around nice guy to his family and friends. Sadly he is simply another example of one the smartest guys in the room turning out to be swift as a bag of hammers.

Maybe just maybe we should quarantine these smartest guys in the room and let some of the dumbest in the room have a crack at it.

Could we, eeerrrr excuse me, they do any worse. Okay it's we, I'm in that group. But still, could maybe the opposite to what they're doing be the answer? How about doing nothing? Just a thought.


Good speculating to you all and please remember to never forget that "an investor is a speculator who made a mistake and will not admit it".


Open Positions:
Long 1 unit Direxion Large Cap 3X Bear ticker BGZ @ $19.34
Long 2 units Direxion Small Cap 3X Bear ticker TZA @ $12.06
Long 1 unit Direxion Emerging Mkts 3X Bear ticker EDZ @ $6.05
Long 2 units Direxion Financial 3X Bear ticker FAZ @ $19.65
Long 2 units Ultrashort Xinhua China ticker FXP @ $8.49
Long 1 unit Ultrashort Real Estate ticker SRS @ $9.82
Long 2 units Direxion Tech 3X Bear ticker TYP @ $10.52
Long 1 unit US Dollar Bull ticker UUP @ $22.52 stop @ $21.97

Short 1 unit Daimler ticker DAI @ $52.23 stop @ $52.23
Short 1 unit CurrncyShr Aus Dlr ticker FXA @ $89.65 stop @ $91.71

Hey Steve.... Still Think It's a Liquidity Crisis ?

Regular readers know I have had little use for the opinions of mid-life crisised, sometimes presidential candidate, sometimes magazine publisher, sometimes, but only when it suits him, free market capitalist, yet full time poster boy for the "lucky sperm club" Steven Forbes.

His rants way back as the markets were in meltdown that this financial debacle we are in, (yes contrary to mainstream propaganda we are still in it!) was simply a crisis of liquidity and that a simple removal of onerous, outdated, and inconvenient rules of mark to market accounting would solve everything in a jiffy. This removal is more commonly referred to as marking to fantasy and is a widespread practice among financial companies today.

Regular readers know I have and still do vehemently disagree with Mr. Forbes and the rest of the crowd echoing his shallow, sophomoric and simply idiotic remedies to our economic ills.

I have long argued, as many idiot bloggers in the blogosphere have as well, that this is NOT a crisis of liquidity but rather one of solvency. So for any out there like Mr. Forbes who still cling to the notion that this is simply a liquidity issue and ignoring mark to market will solve everything I offer up this article today by Jonathan Weil over at Bloomberg entitled Suing Wall St. Banks Never Looked So Shady.

Please read the article. You will start to understand why I have been so critical of the mark to fantasy proponents like Mr. Forbes and his comrades in arms Bill Isaac (former FDIC chairman.. and you wonder why FDIC is in the pickle it's in) and of course Larry Kudlow.

I anxiously await their myriad number of excuses as to why mark to market is still a bad thing even in the face of this evidence. My guess is that mark to myth is still their preference simply because they say so as the born-with-a-better-pot-to-piss-in-crowd everywhere and always are the smartest guys in the room. Makes me think of the quote from George Orwell who said;

"In times of universal deceit, telling the truth will become a revolutionary act".


Good speculating to you all and please remember to never forget that "an investor is a speculator who made a mistake and will not admit it".


Open Positions:
Long 1 unit Direxion Large Cap 3X Bear ticker BGZ @ $19.34
Long 2 units Direxion Small Cap 3X Bear ticker TZA @ $12.06
Long 1 unit Direxion Emerging Mkts 3X Bear ticker EDZ @ $6.05
Long 2 units Direxion Financial 3X Bear ticker FAZ @ $19.65
Long 2 units Ultrashort Xinhua China ticker FXP @ $8.49
Long 1 unit Ultrashort Real Estate ticker SRS @ $9.82
Long 2 units Direxion Tech 3X Bear ticker TYP @ $10.52
Long 1 unit US Dollar Bull ticker UUP @ $22.52 stop @ $21.97

Short 1 unit Daimler ticker DAI @ $52.23 stop @ $52.23
Short 1 unit CurrncyShr Aus Dlr ticker FXA @ $89.65 stop @ $91.71

Monday, February 22, 2010

Back to Posting

I am back from a mid-winter break which consisted of a few days of golf down in lovely, but chilly, Myrtle Beach, South Carolina. The holiday shortened week was the perfect opportunity to do so.

My apologies for the lack of posts whilst gone but I am back, rested and ready to go !

Housekeeping notes:

While away (Tuesday last week) I was stopped out of my TLT position at $89.30 for a loss of just over 2pts on 2 units long.


Good speculating to you all and please remember to never forget that "an investor is a speculator who made a mistake and will not admit it".


Open Positions:
Long 1 unit Direxion Large Cap 3X Bear ticker BGZ @ $19.34
Long 2 units Direxion Small Cap 3X Bear ticker TZA @ $12.06
Long 1 unit Direxion Emerging Mkts 3X Bear ticker EDZ @ $6.05
Long 2 units Direxion Financial 3X Bear ticker FAZ @ $19.65
Long 2 units Ultrashort Xinhua China ticker FXP @ $8.49
Long 1 unit Ultrashort Real Estate ticker SRS @ $9.82
Long 2 units Direxion Tech 3X Bear ticker TYP @ $10.52
Long 1 unit US Dollar Bull ticker UUP @ $22.52 stop @ $21.97

Short 1 unit Daimler ticker DAI @ $52.23 stop @ $52.23
Short 1 unit CurrncyShr Aus Dlr ticker FXA @ $89.65 stop @ $91.71

Friday, February 12, 2010

The Debt Remains

With all the Greece news on the wires, it got me thinking. Usually this gets me into trouble but I was concerned with the debt to GDP numbers that so many bandy about. As is usual Barry Ritholz was all over this at his sight The Big Picture with the post Indebtedness of Various Sovereigns where I came across the graph below.

Take special note of the grey "Enronesque" bars, to the right, which represents 'unofficial' off balance sheet items. That is code for things we like to kinda ignore for arguments sake. Items like social security, medicare, medicaid,Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, Medicare part D (drugs) etc, etc. You get the picture.

By the way Ireland, which is not included in the above graph, has a gray bar that is somewhere around 1200%. I have no numbers on Portugal but lets assume it looks similar to the others.

On this side of the pond there is plenty of blame to go around so lets not blame this on the Democrats alone. I think the nation had Republicans in charge for 8 years, 8 years in which they managed to make Bill Clinton look the most conservative Bundesbanker ever!

Quite the fiscal conservatives those republicans are now aren't they? What was it former Pres. Bush said regarding the bail outs? Oh yeah, I remember it now:

"I've abandoned free-market principles to save the free-market system,"


Yes all 'born again' so to speak. Pathetic the lot of them. A sad sight to watch the eunuch Newt Gingrich preach now that he has found fiscal religion. Funny how he couldn't spell the word when he was the speaker of the house.

And poor Sarah Palin attempting to hi-jack the Tea Party movement for the Republican party hacks.

I am anxious for anyone to disprove my theory that politics in this country has become a reality version of WWF Wresting. Just one big charade.

I came across an excellent cartoon out of the Miami Herald by Jim Morin (who does awesome work !) which you can see below, regarding our current political state.


Absolutely spot on Jim. We could have quite the debate arguing which is worse the taxing or the borrowing.

Mike Shedlock had an excellent post on his blog the other day entitled Conversation with my 14 year Old Son. The post surrounded a reader's discussion with his son on the subject of our debt:

I had an interesting moment with my 14 year old son the other day. I had gone to the US Debt Clock website and was taking a minute to just watch the numbers roll up and down in the various amounts. The site breaks down the debt into a per person amounts. It is quite depressing. My 14 year old son walked by and I had him take a look at it all, explaining that someday my son, all this will be yours. His first words were "Why the hell should I have to pay that back?" I found that comment interesting in that he does have a point. It's not like the money that has been borrowed in the past has been used to create world class infrastructures or world class anything. The vast majority of all the money borrowed by the government decade after decade has been just thrown down every conceivable rathole. Imagine if his entire generation comes to the same conclusion someday.


Yes, nothing to show for it but the interest payments due. How pathetic. You would think we could have a least bought a decpreciating asset like a car or a boat or a flatscreen TV. Oh wait, thats precisely what we did.

Oh yeah, I almost forgot. We bought votes with the money. Lots and lots of votes. Now tie in potential view the 14yr old has with the video in my earlier post Loss Leader.

Might the Chinese be already expecting/planning for this scenario? Seems logical.


Good speculating to you all and please remember to never forget that "an investor is a speculator who made a mistake and will not admit it".


Open Positions:
Long 1 unit Direxion Large Cap 3X Bear ticker BGZ @ $19.34
Long 2 units Direxion Small Cap 3X Bear ticker TZA @ $12.06
Long 1 unit Direxion Emerging Mkts 3X Bear ticker EDZ @ $6.05
Long 2 units Direxion Financial 3X Bear ticker FAZ @ $19.65
Long 2 units Ultrashort Xinhua China ticker FXP @ $8.49
Long 1 unit Ultrashort Real Estate ticker SRS @ $9.82
Long 2 units Direxion Tech 3X Bear ticker TYP @ $10.52
Long 1 unit US Dollar Bull ticker UUP @ $22.52 stop @ $21.97
Long 2 units Barclays 20yr bond ticker TLT @ $91.40 stop $89.33

Short 1 unit Daimler ticker DAI @ $52.23 stop @ $52.23
Short 1 unit CurrncyShr Aus Dlr ticker FXA @ $89.65 stop @ $91.71

Loss Leader?

A friend sent me this video. It's only a few minutes but well worth your time. Should get you thinking, it sure got the mouse up and running for me!

video


Good speculating to you all and please remember to never forget that "an investor is a speculator who made a mistake and will not admit it".

Open Positions:
Long 1 unit Direxion Large Cap 3X Bear ticker BGZ @ $19.34
Long 2 units Direxion Small Cap 3X Bear ticker TZA @ $12.06
Long 1 unit Direxion Emerging Mkts 3X Bear ticker EDZ @ $6.05
Long 2 units Direxion Financial 3X Bear ticker FAZ @ $19.65
Long 2 units Ultrashort Xinhua China ticker FXP @ $8.49
Long 1 unit Ultrashort Real Estate ticker SRS @ $9.82
Long 2 units Direxion Tech 3X Bear ticker TYP @ $10.52
Long 1 unit US Dollar Bull ticker UUP @ $22.52 stop @ $21.97
Long 2 units Barclays 20yr bond ticker TLT @ $91.40 stop $89.33

Short 1 unit Daimler ticker DAI @ $52.23 stop @ $52.23
Short 1 unit CurrncyShr Aus Dlr ticker FXA @ $89.65 stop @ $91.71

Wednesday, February 10, 2010

Adding some TLT

The long bond etf, ticker TLT (daily view above).

Based on this chart I am comfortable front running, (sorry, that's what Goldman does) rather, not waiting for the break out at $92.50 and getting long a 2nd unit of TLT here at $91.45

Just so you don't think I operate in a bubble shut off from reality, I fully realize that at a recent conference in Moscow, Nassim Taleb (of Black Swan fame) recommended
that:

"Due to the policies of the Obama administration and Fed Chair Ben Bernanke, “every single human being” should bet U.S. Treasury bonds will decline."


So yes, I am fading Mr. Taleb's call.


Good speculating to you all and please remember to never forget that "an investor is a speculator who made a mistake and will not admit it".

Open Positions:
Long 1 unit Direxion Large Cap 3X Bear ticker BGZ @ $19.34
Long 2 units Direxion Small Cap 3X Bear ticker TZA @ $12.06
Long 1 unit Direxion Emerging Mkts 3X Bear ticker EDZ @ $6.05
Long 2 units Direxion Financial 3X Bear ticker FAZ @ $19.65
Long 2 units Ultrashort Xinhua China ticker FXP @ $8.49
Long 1 unit Ultrashort Real Estate ticker SRS @ $9.82
Long 2 units Direxion Tech 3X Bear ticker TYP @ $10.52
Long 1 unit US Dollar Bull ticker UUP @ $22.52 stop @ $21.97
Long 2 units Barclays 20yr bond ticker TLT @ $91.40 stop $89.33

Short 1 unit Daimler ticker DAI @ $52.23 stop @ $52.23
Short 1 unit CurrncyShr Aus Dlr ticker FXA @ $89.65 stop @ $91.71

Baidu - BIDU

Chinese phenom Baidu, ticker BIDU (weekly view above).

I wonder what old man Templeton would have to say?

Good speculating to you all and please remember to never forget that "an investor is a speculator who made a mistake and will not admit it".


Open Positions:
Long 1 unit Direxion Large Cap 3X Bear ticker BGZ @ $19.34
Long 2 units Direxion Small Cap 3X Bear ticker TZA @ $12.06
Long 1 unit Direxion Emerging Mkts 3X Bear ticker EDZ @ $6.05
Long 2 units Direxion Financial 3X Bear ticker FAZ @ $19.65
Long 2 units Ultrashort Xinhua China ticker FXP @ $8.49
Long 1 unit Ultrashort Real Estate ticker SRS @ $9.82
Long 2 units Direxion Tech 3X Bear ticker TYP @ $10.52
Long 1 unit US Dollar Bull ticker UUP @ $22.52 stop @ $21.97
Long 1 unit Barclays 20yr bond ticker TLT @ $91.25 stop $89.33

Short 1 unit Daimler ticker DAI @ $52.23 stop @ $52.23
Short 1 unit CurrncyShr Aus Dlr ticker FXA @ $89.65 stop @ $91.71

Monday, February 8, 2010

Yes.... It is All About the Debt !

Readers know I am a big fan of the work the fellas over at Comstock put out. Their piece this week entitled, It's All About Debt is a sobering read.

I would counsel those who prefer a great propaganda campaign over factual substance to please skip the article.

Comstock Partners, Inc.

It's All About Debt

February 04, 2010

As we have expected ever since the emergence of the Dubai crisis, sovereign debt problems have come to the fore as a major threat to the global economy and financial system. The catalyst was renewed fears that Greece and Portugal will not be able to fund their deficits without a bail-out following the failure of a Portuguese bond auction. As a result world stock markets plunged, Southern European bond yields soared, the Euro plunged and the spreads on credit default swaps (CDS) hit record highs for a number of countries.

In our comment on December 10, entitled "Why the Stock Market Looks Vulnerable", we expressed our concern that Dubai's debt problems indicated that other sovereign nations were exposed as well to the severe decline in asset values that left debtors with too little cash flow to service their debts. We particularly singled out the vulnerability of Greece, Portugal and Spain and the problems involved with their being members of the European Union (EU). In another comment on January 21st, entitled "Banks Are Not the Only Problem", we cited a list of negative factors facing the market and then added that "The Greek problem may end up having even more market impact than any of the above".

EU president Jean-Claude Trichet at first tried to play down the concerns over Greece, stating that he was "confident that the Greek government would take all the decisions that will permit it to reach" the goal of cutting its budget deficit substantially. Indeed, Greek premier George Papandreou did put forth a plan to raise taxes and slash spending to close the gap, although this was more a statement of intent than a substantive thought-out program. And even this weak attempt was met with an announcement by Greek labor unions that they would start a general strike rather than submit to any cuts. "

Joaquin Almunia, The EU economics commissioner, said that tough measures were "extremely urgent" to prevent a further flight from Greek debt. He said that concerns had spread to other EU countries where deficits are soaring out of control, specifically mentioning Portugal and Spain. The big problem, however, is that EU nations forced to undertake draconian measures to rein in their deficits are not able to offset the severe economic drag with a devaluation of their currencies. This probably means that rescuing Greece is not possible without an EU bailout that hardliners within the community are stiffly resisting on the grounds that if they bail out Greece they may have to do the same for Portugal and Spain. The only other option is for these nations to leave the EU, a move that would likely lead to a dismantling of the union and the abandonment of the Euro currency.

The emergence of the crisis is reminiscent of the first indications that Bear Stearns was facing financial difficulty, and could be the proverbial "canary in the coal mine" indicating the potential contagion to a slew of other sovereign nations. Moreover, it's an indication that the severe global debt problems we have been talking about for so long are still with us and getting worse rather than better. (For more detail see our most recent special report, entitled "The Total Debt Relative to GDP Trumps Everything Else".) The lesson the world never seems to learn is that whenever and wherever we get an explosion of debt we also get a series of asset bubbles that are sure to implode. When that happens assets disappear, but the debt remains and there is not enough income to service the interest payments or to pay off the debt at maturity.

That is what is happening now and that is why this is no ordinary recession that is undergoing a V-shaped recovery as many seem to think. This is a credit-induced recession, and history indicates that these take many years to work out. Too many economists are still working with models based on the garden-variety recessions of the post World War ll period. They will find that these models do not work in the current environment. We believe that the market rally off the March bottom is over and that a major downturn is in store.


As usual thanks very much for your insight fellas !

Good speculating to you all and please remember to never forget that "an investor is a speculator who made a mistake and will not admit it".


Open Positions:
Long 1 unit Direxion Large Cap 3X Bear ticker BGZ @ $19.34
Long 2 units Direxion Small Cap 3X Bear ticker TZA @ $12.06
Long 1 unit Direxion Emerging Mkts 3X Bear ticker EDZ @ $6.05
Long 2 units Direxion Financial 3X Bear ticker FAZ @ $19.65
Long 2 units Ultrashort Xinhua China ticker FXP @ $8.49
Long 1 unit Ultrashort Real Estate ticker SRS @ $9.82
Long 2 units Direxion Tech 3X Bear ticker TYP @ $10.52
Long 1 unit US Dollar Bull ticker UUP @ $22.52 stop @ $21.97
Long 1 unit Barclays 20yr bond ticker TLT @ $91.25 stop $89.33

Short 1 unit Daimler ticker DAI @ $52.23 stop @ $52.23
Short 1 unit CurrncyShr Aus Dlr ticker FXA @ $89.65 stop @ $91.71

Friday, February 5, 2010

Gold - GDX and GLD

The Market Vectors Gold Miners, ticker GDX (weekly view chart below) has broken a longer term channel (purple) as well as the shorter channel (green). As my notes indicate the 13 and 34 week EMA's have not only been violated but have rolled over. Only the most tunnel visioned gold bulls would ignore this warning signal.

Note the heavy volume coming in the last 3 week weekly bars.


Next up we have the Gold spider etf, ticker GLD (weekly view below). This chart paints an equally troublesome picture. Market watchers know the stocks lead the bullion (due to their leverage) hence why bullion is the 2nd chart here.

GLD has broken the lower bound of the shorter term channel (green) along with the 13 week EMA with the 34 week EMA under assault. An oversold bounce is due but dare I say 780 to 810 is a legitimate target. If we do get there, lets hope the lower boundary of the long term channel (purple) holds as one may not want to think of the next target if that were to give way.

I realize the 'gold crowd', don't want to hear any of this but the charts are speaking. I know gold is money. I know gold has special attributes, most especially so in a profligate world, which is why I own the physical... fully paid for. I want to be wrong about all of this but......

Global de-leveraging is in motion and leads me to ask the following. Is a global 'garage sale', as everyone scrambles to raise cash, in the offing? I cannot help but think so, especially in the face of fundamentals and more importantly, these charts.






Good speculating to you all and please remember to never forget that "an investor is a speculator who made a mistake and will not admit it".


Open Positions:
Long 1 unit Direxion Large Cap 3X Bear ticker BGZ @ $19.34
Long 2 units Direxion Small Cap 3X Bear ticker TZA @ $12.06
Long 1 unit Direxion Emerging Mkts 3X Bear ticker EDZ @ $6.05
Long 2 units Direxion Financial 3X Bear ticker FAZ @ $19.65
Long 2 units Ultrashort Xinhua China ticker FXP @ $8.49
Long 1 unit Ultrashort Real Estate ticker SRS @ $9.82
Long 2 units Direxion Tech 3X Bear ticker TYP @ $10.52
Long 1 unit US Dollar Bull ticker UUP @ $22.52 stop @ $21.97
Long 1 unit Barclays 20yr bond ticker TLT @ $91.25 stop $89.33

Short 1 unit Daimler ticker DAI @ $52.23 stop @ $52.23
Short 1 unit CurrncyShr Aus Dlr ticker FXA @ $89.65 stop @ $91.71

Wednesday, February 3, 2010

Long more TYP

Direxion Tech 3X Bear ticker TYP, daily chart above.

Note the 2 impulsive waves up followed by lower volume consolidations, noted in green above. Based on this action I am compelled to get long a 2nd unit of TYP here at $10.25


Good speculating to you all and please remember to never forget that "an investor is a speculator who made a mistake and will not admit it".


Open Positions:
Long 1 unit Direxion Large Cap 3X Bear ticker BGZ @ $19.34
Long 2 units Direxion Small Cap 3X Bear ticker TZA @ $12.06
Long 1 unit Direxion Emerging Mkts 3X Bear ticker EDZ @ $6.05
Long 2 units Direxion Financial 3X Bear ticker FAZ @ $19.65
Long 2 units Ultrashort Xinhua China ticker FXP @ $8.49
Long 1 unit Ultrashort Real Estate ticker SRS @ $9.82
Long 2 units Direxion Tech 3X Bear ticker TYP @ $10.52
Long 1 unit US Dollar Bull ticker UUP @ $22.52 stop @ $21.97
Long 1 unit Barclays 20yr bond ticker TLT @ $91.25 stop $89.33

Short 1 unit Daimler ticker DAI @ $52.23 stop @ $52.23
Short 1 unit CurrncyShr Aus Dlr ticker FXA @ $89.65 stop @ $91.71

Tuesday, February 2, 2010

Pay Attention to the Volume

I know not how else to say this so I will just say it. If you still have significant exposure to the stock market you are being led to the slaughterhouse. Most every pension fund, hedge fund, mutual fund manager has a zealous belief in the following;

  1. the Fed has their back.
  2. the Fed is omnipotent.
  3. don't fight the Fed.
  4. liquidity is abundant
  5. there's safety in numbers (re. every else is in the market so I should to)
  6. get rich or die trying (re: my bonus is more important than your capital)
The same managers and talking heads you see on Bubblevision (CNBC) who, coincidentally never saw the debacle of 2008 coming, yet are eminently qualified to opine on how cheap equities are now. It would all be way too funny if not for the fact a substantial portion of people's accumulated life savings hangs in the balance of these ignoramus' decisions.

Mutual fund cash positions are at their lowest levels we have seen rivalling where they were in the fall of 2007 (market top coincidentally)

The bonds look to be holding firm here. If this was such a great dip buying opportunity for stocks (isn't it always!), why are bonds not tanking?

Well, because this is a rally that reeks of Fool's Gold.

PAY ATTENTION TO THE VOLUME ! or rather lack thereof. This rally is hollow.

Yes I am significantly short, so yes you could say I am talking my book, so to speak. Fortunately my book is my money! Not faceless, numerical balances on a ledger, other people's money, which is the bankroll for the majority of CNBC's expert guest list.

What I am NOT doing is telling everyone to get short.

What I am saying to get out of the market or in the least tread very carefully.

There is nothing wrong with cash.

Cash is king.

Cash becomes the king of kings as deflation takes hold and prices for most everything plummet lower.

There, just wanted to get that off my chest so there is no ambiguity about my stance.


Good speculating to you all and please remember to never forget that "an investor is a speculator who made a mistake and will not admit it".

Open Positions:
Long 1 unit Direxion Large Cap 3X Bear ticker BGZ @ $19.34
Long 2 units Direxion Small Cap 3X Bear ticker TZA @ $12.06
Long 1 unit Direxion Emerging Mkts 3X Bear ticker EDZ @ $6.05
Long 2 units Direxion Financial 3X Bear ticker FAZ @ $19.65
Long 2 units Ultrashort Xinhua China ticker FXP @ $8.49
Long 1 unit Ultrashort Real Estate ticker SRS @ $9.82
Long 1 unit Direxion Tech 3X Bear ticker TYP @ $10.68
Long 1 unit US Dollar Bull ticker UUP @ $22.52 stop @ $21.97
Long 1 unit Barclays 20yr bond ticker TLT @ $91.25 stop $89.33

Short 1 unit Daimler ticker DAI @ $52.23 stop @ $52.23
Short 1 unit CurrncyShr Aus Dlr ticker FXA @ $89.65 stop @ $91.71

Monday, February 1, 2010

The Dollar - UUP


US dollar bull fund ticker UUP, daily view above.

Like it or not I believe that this is THE story right now. We shall see how it plays out.


Good speculating to you all and please remember to never forget that "an investor is a speculator who made a mistake and will not admit it".



Open Positions:
Long 1 unit Direxion Large Cap 3X Bear ticker BGZ @ $19.34
Long 2 units Direxion Small Cap 3X Bear ticker TZA @ $12.06
Long 1 unit Direxion Emerging Mkts 3X Bear ticker EDZ @ $6.05
Long 2 units Direxion Financial 3X Bear ticker FAZ @ $19.65
Long 2 units Ultrashort Xinhua China ticker FXP @ $8.49
Long 1 unit Ultrashort Real Estate ticker SRS @ $9.82
Long 1 unit Direxion Tech 3X Bear ticker TYP @ $10.68
Long 1 unit US Dollar Bull ticker UUP @ $22.52 stop @ $21.97
Long 1 unit Barclays 20yr bond ticker TLT @ $91.25 stop $89.33

Short 1 unit Daimler ticker DAI @ $52.23 stop @ $52.23
Short 1 unit CurrncyShr Aus Dlr ticker FXA @ $89.65 stop @ $91.71

More Monthly Charts - GOOG, IBM, AAPL, and GS

Google, ticker GOOG, monthly view above. CAUTION !! it is not for the weak of stomach !

IBM, montly view above.
Apple ticker AAPL, monthly view above.

Government eeer..... excuse me, I meant to say Goldman Sachs ticker GS, montly view above.

Goldman Sachs, ticker GS, daily view above. Time will tell if GS will rally back to the neckline giving those who missed it a 2nd chance.


Good speculating to you all and please remember to never forget that "an investor is a speculator who made a mistake and will not admit it".




Open Positions:
Long 1 unit Direxion Large Cap 3X Bear ticker BGZ @ $19.34
Long 2 units Direxion Small Cap 3X Bear ticker TZA @ $12.06
Long 1 unit Direxion Emerging Mkts 3X Bear ticker EDZ @ $6.05
Long 2 units Direxion Financial 3X Bear ticker FAZ @ $19.65
Long 2 units Ultrashort Xinhua China ticker FXP @ $8.49
Long 1 unit Ultrashort Real Estate ticker SRS @ $9.82
Long 1 unit Direxion Tech 3X Bear ticker TYP @ $10.68
Long 1 unit US Dollar Bull ticker UUP @ $22.52 stop @ $21.97
Long 1 unit Barclays 20yr bond ticker TLT @ $91.25 stop $89.33

Short 1 unit Daimler ticker DAI @ $52.23 stop @ $52.23
Short 1 unit CurrncyShr Aus Dlr ticker FXA @ $89.65 stop @ $91.71

Long some TLT

Based on my earlier post A Quick Look at Some Bond Bellweathers I am prepared to enter half of this trade, hopefully the better half.

That is to get long 1 unit of the long bond, ticker TLT here at $91.15 with a stop at $89.33

Housekeeping notes:

I am lowering my stop on my DAI short position to breakeven at $52.23

Good speculating to you all and please remember to never forget that "an investor is a speculator who made a mistake and will not admit it".


Open Positions:
Long 1 unit Direxion Large Cap 3X Bear ticker BGZ @ $19.34
Long 2 units Direxion Small Cap 3X Bear ticker TZA @ $12.06
Long 1 unit Direxion Emerging Mkts 3X Bear ticker EDZ @ $6.05
Long 2 units Direxion Financial 3X Bear ticker FAZ @ $19.65
Long 2 units Ultrashort Xinhua China ticker FXP @ $8.49
Long 1 unit Ultrashort Real Estate ticker SRS @ $9.82
Long 1 unit Direxion Tech 3X Bear ticker TYP @ $10.68
Long 1 unit US Dollar Bull ticker UUP @ $22.52 stop @ $21.97
Long 1 unit Barclays 20yr bond ticker TLT @ $91.25 stop $89.33

Short 1 unit Daimler ticker DAI @ $52.23 stop @ $52.23
Short 1 unit CurrncyShr Aus Dlr ticker FXA @ $89.65 stop @ $91.71

A Quick Look at some Bond Bellweathers

iBoxx Investment grade bond fund ticker LQD, daily view above.

Barclays high yield (junk) bond fund, ticker JNK, daily view above.

TLT daily view above.



Good speculating to you all and please remember to never forget that "an investor is a speculator who made a mistake and will not admit it".


Open Positions:
Long 1 unit Direxion Large Cap 3X Bear ticker BGZ @ $19.34
Long 2 units Direxion Small Cap 3X Bear ticker TZA @ $12.06
Long 1 unit Direxion Emerging Mkts 3X Bear ticker EDZ @ $6.05
Long 2 units Direxion Financial 3X Bear ticker FAZ @ $19.65
Long 2 units Ultrashort Xinhua China ticker FXP @ $8.49
Long 1 unit Ultrashort Real Estate ticker SRS @ $9.82
Long 1 unit Direxion Tech 3X Bear ticker TYP @ $10.68
Long 1 unit US Dollar Bull ticker UUP @ $22.52 stop @ $21.97
Short 1 unit Daimler ticker DAI @ $52.23 stop @ $54.81
Short 1 unit CurrncyShr Aus Dlr ticker FXA @ $89.65 stop @ $91.71

Monthly Charts - QQQQ, SPY, DIA, X, AA


Since month end is now in the books I thought we should have a look at some monthly charts to get some perspective. Remember now, the longer the time frame the more valid the chart.


Nadaq 100 tacking stock ticker QQQQ, monthly view above.

S&P 500 tracking stock spiders ticker SPY, monthly view above.

Dow Industrials tracking stock diamonds ticker DIA, ,monthly view above.

Alcoa ticker AA, monthly view above.


U.S. Steel ticker X, monthly view above.



Good speculating to you all and please remember to never forget that "an investor is a speculator who made a mistake and will not admit it".


Open Positions:
Long 1 unit Direxion Large Cap 3X Bear ticker BGZ @ $19.34
Long 2 units Direxion Small Cap 3X Bear ticker TZA @ $12.06
Long 1 unit Direxion Emerging Mkts 3X Bear ticker EDZ @ $6.05
Long 2 units Direxion Financial 3X Bear ticker FAZ @ $19.65
Long 2 units Ultrashort Xinhua China ticker FXP @ $8.49
Long 1 unit Ultrashort Real Estate ticker SRS @ $9.82
Long 1 unit Direxion Tech 3X Bear ticker TYP @ $10.68
Long 1 unit US Dollar Bull ticker UUP @ $22.52 stop @ $21.97
Short 1 unit Daimler ticker DAI @ $52.23 stop @ $54.81
Short 1 unit CurrncyShr Aus Dlr ticker FXA @ $89.65 stop @ $91.71