Tuesday, August 31, 2010

Strength or Stupidity

Crude swooning and looking sick,
Bonds steadily rising and looking strong,
Yen breakout holding, (north of 115 on the FXY) with the ascending triangle implying a 140 target.

Yikes !!

And yet in the face of all this..... equities are higher. Even today at least until that last hour or so.

Either all these other asset classes together in tandem are way off base wrong or equities simply don't or won't get it.

Is it implied underlying strength by equities or abject stupidity by equities?

I fear there will come a point when the equity boyz and galz awaken to what crude, the bonds and the yen smell. Flash crash might look good compared to what might await us.


Good speculating to you all and please remember to never forget that "an investor is a speculator who made a mistake and will not admit it".


Open Positions:
Long 1 unit Direxion Large Cap 3X Bear ticker BGZ @ $19.34
Long 2 units Direxion Small Cap 3X Bear ticker TZA @ $60.30
Long 1 unit Direxion Emerging Mkts 3X Bear ticker EDZ @ $60.50
Long 2 units Direxion Financial 3X Bear ticker FAZ @ $19.65
Long 2 units Ultrashort Xinhua China ticker FXP @ $42.45
Long 1 unit Ultrashort Real Estate ticker SRS @ $49.10
Long 2 units Direxion Tech 3X Bear ticker TYP @ $52.60
Long 1 unit US Dollar Bull ticker UUP @ $22.52 stop @ $22.52
Long 1 unit ishares Barclays 20yr Treas ticker TLT @ 92.15 stop @ $92.15
Long 1 unit ishares Barclays 20yr Treas ticker TLT @ 93.48 stop @ $93.48
Short 1 unit Apple ticker AAPL @ $275.20 stop @ $266.50

Monday, August 30, 2010

IBM View

A clean unobstructed 20 year view of IBM on a monthly basis. Please note the $120 high water mark made during the hey days of the dot com bubble.



Do you know how many technicians bought the move up thru that old high of $120 during first week of May 2008 and then yet again in mid July of the same year only to see the stock get absolutely crushed.


Lets take a look see at IBM now on a closer weekly view.


The move up off the lows of 2008 took out the tech bubble high of $120 and the 2008 highs of basically $125. This thing should have taken off like a rocket.

Why has the stock not accelerated?
Is there something wrong under the hood so to speak?
These numbers 120 and 125 are multi-month and multi-year highs and are significant benchmarks.

So what gives?

Wall St. like to promulgate the buy and hold strategy everywhere and always. Cash as an asset class pays them no fees, I repeat, cash as an investment decision pays them nothing, ergo they have no way to cover their monthly nut, ie. membership dues, alimony, Amex bill which is an untenable situation.

So, could just the opposite be the case going forward? That being a strategy of sell and hold? Something one might consider but as always consult with your investment advisor before making any financial decision, most especially as to it's suitability to said advisers standing within their firms monthly production ranking and grid as well.


Good speculating to you all and please remember to never forget that "an investor is a speculator who made a mistake and will not admit it".


Open Positions:
Long 1 unit Direxion Large Cap 3X Bear ticker BGZ @ $19.34
Long 2 units Direxion Small Cap 3X Bear ticker TZA @ $60.30
Long 1 unit Direxion Emerging Mkts 3X Bear ticker EDZ @ $60.50
Long 2 units Direxion Financial 3X Bear ticker FAZ @ $19.65
Long 2 units Ultrashort Xinhua China ticker FXP @ $42.45
Long 1 unit Ultrashort Real Estate ticker SRS @ $49.10
Long 2 units Direxion Tech 3X Bear ticker TYP @ $52.60
Long 1 unit US Dollar Bull ticker UUP @ $22.52 stop @ $22.52
Long 1 unit ishares Barclays 20yr Treas ticker TLT @ 92.15 stop @ $92.15
Long 1 unit ishares Barclays 20yr Treas ticker TLT @ 93.48 stop @ $93.48
Short 1 unit Apple ticker AAPL @ $275.20 stop @ $266.50

Some Charts.

Couple of weekly charts to take a peek at. Starting with the Dow Jones Industrials weekly view.

Nasdaq Composite via the tracking stock ticker QQQQ weekly view.

Russell 2000 tracking stock ticker IWM weekly view.

Dow Transports weekly view.



Good speculating to you all and please remember to never forget that "an investor is a speculator who made a mistake and will not admit it".


Open Positions:
Long 1 unit Direxion Large Cap 3X Bear ticker BGZ @ $19.34
Long 2 units Direxion Small Cap 3X Bear ticker TZA @ $60.30
Long 1 unit Direxion Emerging Mkts 3X Bear ticker EDZ @ $60.50
Long 2 units Direxion Financial 3X Bear ticker FAZ @ $19.65
Long 2 units Ultrashort Xinhua China ticker FXP @ $42.45
Long 1 unit Ultrashort Real Estate ticker SRS @ $49.10
Long 2 units Direxion Tech 3X Bear ticker TYP @ $52.60
Long 1 unit US Dollar Bull ticker UUP @ $22.52 stop @ $22.52
Long 1 unit ishares Barclays 20yr Treas ticker TLT @ 92.15 stop @ $92.15
Long 1 unit ishares Barclays 20yr Treas ticker TLT @ 93.48 stop @ $93.48
Short 1 unit Apple ticker AAPL @ $275.20 stop @ $266.50

Friday, August 27, 2010

End of the Week

GDP shockingly revised downwards but who cares Big Ben tells us all is well!

Remember my post back date July 26 regarding the Yen? Would like to see the 115 breakout area hold which should bode for much higher prices. Yen carry trade unwind, de-risk, de-lever call it what you want continues.

Under the file of you just can't make this stuff up. I happened to catch a blurb on CNBC's Fast Money yesterday in which one of the resident pundits Steve Cortes had this gem;

"I think that the Fed chairman needs to start speaking more positively about the economy, otherwise, he's actually reinforcing the very deflation he's trying to prevent, because it creates such retrenchment."

The show's host Melissa Lee responded with a supriseingly, un-CNBC line of

"Yeah, but If he's not positive about the economy, why should he speak positively about the economy?"

Mr. Cortes, unsatisfied with simply being a member of the Simon Hobbes 'Keeping Up Appearances Club" and obviously not content with sticking one shoe in his mouth, felt compelled to insert the other by saying this,

"Because he wants prices to rise, it can be self-reinforcing. In other words, if he constantly talks doom and gloom ... we can actually be caught in a Japan-style deflationary trap that we otherwise might not be in. And the Fed's starting to debate this."

Hey Steve Cortes, I have an idea... why not click your heels 3 times and think to yourself there's no place like home, there's no place like home.

Pundit on CNBC people. Yet another example of the purported 'smart money'. Sorry Steve, unless of course its simply your book and your bonus talking.


Good speculating to you all and please remember to never forget that "an investor is a speculator who made a mistake and will not admit it".


Open Positions:
Long 1 unit Direxion Large Cap 3X Bear ticker BGZ @ $19.34
Long 2 units Direxion Small Cap 3X Bear ticker TZA @ $60.30
Long 1 unit Direxion Emerging Mkts 3X Bear ticker EDZ @ $60.50
Long 2 units Direxion Financial 3X Bear ticker FAZ @ $19.65
Long 2 units Ultrashort Xinhua China ticker FXP @ $42.45
Long 1 unit Ultrashort Real Estate ticker SRS @ $49.10
Long 2 units Direxion Tech 3X Bear ticker TYP @ $52.60
Long 1 unit US Dollar Bull ticker UUP @ $22.52 stop @ $22.52
Long 1 unit ishares Barclays 20yr Treas ticker TLT @ 92.15 stop @ $92.15
Long 1 unit ishares Barclays 20yr Treas ticker TLT @ 93.48 stop @ $93.48
Short 1 unit Apple ticker AAPL @ $275.20 stop @ $266.50

Wednesday, August 25, 2010

Citi Has 2 Chefs

In yet another sign of the Apocalypse it seems popular Citi bank analyst Mike Mayo has lost his VIP access to Citi's board room and current CEO Vikram Pandit. It appears that Mr. Mayo had the audacity to announce to the world that Citi, not only has a chef in the kitchen but one in the accounting office and is cooking the books by inflating its earnings through an accounting gimmicks.

Really! You don't say! How dare they?

To which I respond with.... you just figured this out Mayo?

I need to yet again pull out the infamous heavily accented office cleaning company owner quote from the movie Wall St. You remember, the one Charlie Sheen invades as a consultant to gain access to office towers, via the cleaning company for insider info....

"Thank you for telling me what I already know!"

No offence Mayo but what was your first clue? That maybe Citi was and is NOT carrying its loan book at mark to market values?

That maybe when a loan is carried on your books for 95 cents and the market price is more akin to 30 cents you might have a small problem and it starts with fictitious and should end in prison?

Mark to fantasy, extend and pretend, delay and pray. These are all important pieces of Citi and pretty much every other bank out there that made Liar Loans, NINJA loans, fog a mirror then sign here loans.



While we're on this subject, can someone explain to a simpleton like me why Mike Mayo from Citi has one on one access to the Citi's CEO and the analyst at Pikerville Securities does not? You can save your breath chanting the SEC maxim of equal access for all investors garbage. Why is a private meeting allowed and if so why are the minutes of said conversation not taped and made accessible to idiot bloggers like myself?

Oh well, what does it matter anyway. Vikram Pandit running Citi is like Charlie Sheen or rather Bud Fox in the movie Wall St. actually getting to run Bluestar Airlines. A massive joke, but then again could it get much worse than what they had before. In all defence of former CEO Chuck Prince, of 'musics still a playin' we're still a dancin' fame, Mother Theresa could have been at the helm and suffered the same or possibly worse fate. The tide went out and we all saw the emperor was swimming naked, Prince just happened to be the emperor at the time.

Which reminds me why I keep Peter Lynch, famed Fidelity Magellan fund manager, in such high regard. He had the humility, something the vast majority on Wall St. cannot spell let alone know what it means, to admit that he had the mother of all bull markets as a backdrop to accomplish his feats.



Good speculating to you all and please remember to never forget that "an investor is a speculator who made a mistake and will not admit it".


Open Positions:
Long 1 unit Direxion Large Cap 3X Bear ticker BGZ @ $19.34
Long 2 units Direxion Small Cap 3X Bear ticker TZA @ $60.30
Long 1 unit Direxion Emerging Mkts 3X Bear ticker EDZ @ $60.50
Long 2 units Direxion Financial 3X Bear ticker FAZ @ $19.65
Long 2 units Ultrashort Xinhua China ticker FXP @ $42.45
Long 1 unit Ultrashort Real Estate ticker SRS @ $49.10
Long 2 units Direxion Tech 3X Bear ticker TYP @ $52.60
Long 1 unit US Dollar Bull ticker UUP @ $22.52 stop @ $22.52
Long 1 unit ishares Barclays 20yr Treas ticker TLT @ 92.15 stop @ $92.15
Long 1 unit ishares Barclays 20yr Treas ticker TLT @ 93.48 stop @ $93.48
Short 1 unit Apple ticker AAPL @ $275.20 stop @ $266.50

Brilliant Analysts, Mishkin and CNBC

I am in a query type mode this morning so here goes.

Why were so many brilliant and highly paid economists so far wrong on the July Existing Home Sales numbers?

Why were so many brilliant and highly paid economists so far wrong on the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index numbers?

(the fact that their median forecast was +7 vs the actual number of -7.7 These leading lights couldn't even get the negative symbol right. Maybe we should ask corrupt imbecile Mishkin if maybe it was a typo error, for a non-disclosed fee of course!)

Why were so many brilliant and highly paid economists so wrong on the weekly jobless claims which now stand at 500,000, a 9 month high.

Why were so many brilliant and highly paid economists so wrong on July new home sales numbers.

Why were so many brilliant and highly paid economists so wrong on the Durable Goods numbers this morning?

Not enough you say? Okay, lets go back in history.

Why were so many brilliant and highly paid analysts and strategists so wrong on the Nikkei/Japan bubble?

Why were so many brilliant and highly paid analysts and strategists so wrong on the Nasdaq/internet bubble?

Why were so many brilliant and highly paid analysts and strategists so wrong on the housing bubble?

Why were so many brilliant analysts and strategists so wrong on Enron, Bre-X (remember that one!), Worldcom, Madoff, Ken Starr the ponzie artist not the spec. prosecutor, or Allan Stanford?

Why were so many brilliant analysts and strategists so wrong on Countrywide, Ambac, Fannie, Freddie the list could go on and on and on?

Why? Well maybe just maybe....

a motto of they don't get paid to think they get paid to sell?
a Sell side bias?
a lack of consequences for stupidity?
a willful ignorance?
or simply shit for brains?

It seems to me everything is unexpected until it isn't anymore. Every event is a one off one time circumstance. Kinda like operating earnings on the S&P 500 which all the analysts like to use when calculating their numbers. Operating earnings conveniently exclude those pesky one-time write offs that for some strange reason seem to appear over and over again, quarter after quarter. Go figure, who da thunk!

Maybe all these brilliant economists are, like their colleague Frederic Mishkin when he wrote his $124,000 Icelandic paper, "going with the information they had", "talking to people" or " having faith in the Central Bank".

While on the topic of Frederic Mishkin I have now watched "the video" about half a dozen times and I must admit that my blood pressure rises with each viewing. This... hang on let me get my thesaurus out.... this unscrupulous charlatan should be ostracized by the business community. That would be the real punishment for this self aggrandizing hypocrite of a fraud. Only then might he realize seppuku would be his answer though he's probably too much of a yellow bellied coward for that.

Mucho appreciation to blogger WC Varones for not only the video but also the identity of the interviewer in the Mishkin video. One Charles Ferguson, former internet entrepreneur and now independent filmmaker. He made the film No End in Sight on mismanagement of the Iraqi war and has a new film that is coming out called Inside Job on the financial meltdown. Both are on my 'to view' list.

CNBC

I want to comment on CNBC, yet again. It's really not my fault as they simply give you so much material to write about!

Just when you thought the village idiot, Denis Kneale, had been run off, CNBC is at the ready to unveil the newest replacement village idiot Simon Hobbes.

I must ask, where on God's green Earth do they find boobs like this?

I love the debate on the Fed and confidence. I love the keeping up appearances gig. Get this man to the Treasury or the Fed ASAP. Better yet get him at the Ministry of Propaganda, yes that's the ticket.

Poor Simon Hobbes, his arrogance is only exceeded by his ignorance.


Good speculating to you all and please remember to never forget that "an investor is a speculator who made a mistake and will not admit it".


Open Positions:
Long 1 unit Direxion Large Cap 3X Bear ticker BGZ @ $19.34
Long 2 units Direxion Small Cap 3X Bear ticker TZA @ $60.30
Long 1 unit Direxion Emerging Mkts 3X Bear ticker EDZ @ $60.50
Long 2 units Direxion Financial 3X Bear ticker FAZ @ $19.65
Long 2 units Ultrashort Xinhua China ticker FXP @ $42.45
Long 1 unit Ultrashort Real Estate ticker SRS @ $49.10
Long 2 units Direxion Tech 3X Bear ticker TYP @ $52.60
Long 1 unit US Dollar Bull ticker UUP @ $22.52 stop @ $22.52
Long 1 unit ishares Barclays 20yr Treas ticker TLT @ 92.15 stop @ $92.15
Long 1 unit ishares Barclays 20yr Treas ticker TLT @ 93.48 stop @ $93.48
Short 1 unit Apple ticker AAPL @ $275.20 stop @ $266.50

Monday, August 23, 2010

Frederic Mishkin - Corrupt Imbecile

Over the weekend while out of town, I caught quite the interesting piece of news via the cats over at Zero Hedge and blogger W.C. Varones. It seems former Fed governor and current professor at Columbia University Federic Mishkin is not only an first rate imbecile, he is on the take as well, making him a completely corrupt imbecile at that.

For those unaware Mishkin wrote a fawning report on Iceland titled 'Financial Stability in Iceland' back in 2006. At some point between then and now the reports title was changed to 'Financial Instability in Iceland.'

I guess the bright professor thought no one would notice. In addition to this slight, let's just call it a typo for now, it seems the highly decorated pundit and professor failed to disclose that he was paid the sum of $124,000 by the Icelandic Chamber of Commerce to pen said glowing report.

Take a moment and watch the segment of the interview of Mishkin here it's less than 2 minutes.

Note how this parasite Mishkin squirms as the questions get more direct.

First off I want to ask who is the interviewer asking the questions and why is he not employed as an anchor with CNBC? Wait a second..... I know why, because he asks questions someone with half a brain would want answered that's why, which is most definitely NOT what CNBC is after. Sellin' the hope right guys !

Please note the part of the interview with Glenn Hubbard, Dean of Columbia's business school. In particular the line of questioning regarding one's omission of the part about compensation in a published paper. "Significant professional sanctions" huh Dean Hubbard,you're too funny. Makes you eminently qualified to run the SEC pal. Actually, Dean Hubbard should send the video over to Columbia's School of Journalism as a study guide to show students how an interview is to be conducted properly.

The way things are I would bet dollars to doughnuts Mishkin now gets appointed Dean of the business school now. Better yet, I bet the over he gets appointed to Christine Romer's old position as chair of the Presidents council of economic advisers. Bizarro world for sure!

Please do watch the interview as it goes a long way to explaining why we are in this mess. Not only are those in charge, lights out stupid, they are in serious positions of policy influence and are on the take everywhere and always.

We simply don't stand a chance while thugs like this are at the helm or still being listened to plain and simple.
None of the "those in charge" group can be trusted. We must purge the entire lot even if that means some good ones get lumped in with them. Cancerous entities must be severed completely destroyed if the host is to survive.

For those wondering "is he on your All-Imbecile Team"? Of course he is, but this is getting serious now.

I returned last evening from a wonderful weekend in Little Rock Arkansas where my nephew was married. It was my first visit to the city and a wonderful time was had by all though it was extraordinarily hot there. The fellas all had some time to kill Saturday afternoon and someone suggested we go see "The Expendables".

Now I am no movie critic but you can all do yourselves an enormous favor and skip this piece of garbage. To call it horrible would be a massive understatement. Stallone, Willis, Schwarzenegger should be ashamed for appearing in it. The Expendables now gets added to the Worst Flicks of All Time list.

The movie itself was simply expendable, case closed.



Good speculating to you all and please remember to never forget that "an investor is a speculator who made a mistake and will not admit it".


Open Positions:
Long 1 unit Direxion Large Cap 3X Bear ticker BGZ @ $19.34
Long 2 units Direxion Small Cap 3X Bear ticker TZA @ $60.30
Long 1 unit Direxion Emerging Mkts 3X Bear ticker EDZ @ $60.50
Long 2 units Direxion Financial 3X Bear ticker FAZ @ $19.65
Long 2 units Ultrashort Xinhua China ticker FXP @ $42.45
Long 1 unit Ultrashort Real Estate ticker SRS @ $49.10
Long 2 units Direxion Tech 3X Bear ticker TYP @ $52.60
Long 1 unit US Dollar Bull ticker UUP @ $22.52 stop @ $22.52
Long 1 unit ishares Barclays 20yr Treas ticker TLT @ 92.15 stop @ $92.15
Long 1 unit ishares Barclays 20yr Treas ticker TLT @ 93.48 stop @ $93.48
Short 1 unit Apple ticker AAPL @ $275.20 stop @ $266.50

Thursday, August 19, 2010

Don't Look There, Look Over Here

Whatever you do absolutely do not focus on....


Instead please focus over here on much more pleasing items, say for instance the Intel and McAffe merger. Yup, that's the ticket, mergers. The cats harping about jobs don't have the slightest clue.

Don't look there, look over here.

Just think about all the hiring Intel will do with this $7.7 billion merger or is it layoffs oops sorry, not allowed to use that word, at least on the propaganda network (CNBC) they can't. Whatever it is, dollars to doughnuts the word synergy gets thrown around the deal with glee.

Of course Intel must very positive on business and the economic climate going forward to go ahead with a deal like this if you listen to Erin Burnett and CNBC. Yes the boobs and boobs get giddy over this so its gotta be good, right Erin?. Kinda like that AOL/Time Warner merger back in 2000. Visionaries who were positive on business outlook and the economic climate going forward yeah, that's the word, visionaries.

Or you can simply focus instead focus on the GM offering that is about to hit the pavement and is dominating the airwaves. Now remember now I said GM and NOT Tesla cause you sure don't want to look at that now.


Good speculating to you all and please remember to never forget that "an investor is a speculator who made a mistake and will not admit it".


Open Positions:
Long 1 unit Direxion Large Cap 3X Bear ticker BGZ @ $19.34
Long 2 units Direxion Small Cap 3X Bear ticker TZA @ $60.30
Long 1 unit Direxion Emerging Mkts 3X Bear ticker EDZ @ $60.50
Long 2 units Direxion Financial 3X Bear ticker FAZ @ $19.65
Long 2 units Ultrashort Xinhua China ticker FXP @ $42.45
Long 1 unit Ultrashort Real Estate ticker SRS @ $49.10
Long 2 units Direxion Tech 3X Bear ticker TYP @ $52.60
Long 1 unit US Dollar Bull ticker UUP @ $22.52 stop @ $22.52
Long 1 unit ishares Barclays 20yr Treas ticker TLT @ 92.15 stop @ $92.15
Long 1 unit ishares Barclays 20yr Treas ticker TLT @ 93.48 stop @ $93.48
Short 1 unit Apple ticker AAPL @ $275.20 stop @ $266.50

Wednesday, August 18, 2010

Our Economy, Crumbs and GM

I have thought about this post for some time and by chance the news today spurred me into action so here goes.

As many of you who follow the capital markets on a regular basis are well aware today famed money manager and George Soros protege Stanley Druckenmiller has thrown in the towel deciding to retire at 57 years of age. It is not his retirement that has prompted me to pen this post but rather something else buried in it.

I do not know Mr. Druckenmiller personally but I have read much about him and his exploits and from all accounts he is a top notch fund manager. There is nothing wrong with his retiring, as a matter of fact by all accounts he is worn out by the stress of it, that and his frustration to match his own previous lofty returns. Quite a driven cat by all accounts and I wish him health and happiness in retirement.

What prompted me to write this was the press accounts, particularly Forbes, reporting that his net worth is approximately..... are you sitting down for this.....$2.8 billion.

Yes billion with a B.

I say congratulations Mr. Druckenmiller well done there is nothing wrong with making a boatload of money and enjoying it. I can imagine by now you are asking, where the heck you going with all this. Well, remember my trip to the East coast back in June when I had the occasion to visit Newport and the gilded age mansions?

Well, back then all the extremely wealthy by and large were men who MADE something. I realize men like Druckenmiller make money, no question about that. But the money they make needs a base of money to be made upon, which is the result of making something. You follow?

We interrupt this regularly scheduled broadcast with this news item...

You think GM went bankrupt making lousy cars or by making lousing loans (think NINJA and Liar loans) via their finance arm GMAC?

You think GM went bankrupt shutting down profitable Oldsmobile with the Aurora, and the Bravada but keeping open perennial money loser and all time comedy show Saturn?

The joke today is that GM is run by politicians now news flash, it has been run by cover their ass politicians for decades, accountants and as an old friend like to say tampon salesmen, afraid to make tough decisions. how else was Saturn able to survive losing money for as long as it did, egos and reputations my friends, egos and reputations keep it alive, the kind of decision that would make a John McCain or Harry Reid blush proudly in envy.

Don't get me wrong GM had some candidates for Eyeshore of All Time like the Cimarron and the Aztec but GM's lineup the last few years was top notch ie. the CTS, Enclave, Acadia, Danali, and Tahoe. Simply the cars had been an issue but weren' t now.

Hey wait a second, didn't the new and improved GM, the one on the verge of a blockbuster IPO just buy subprime lender AmeriCredit for $3.5 billion? Can you say deja vu? My apologies for the GM rant and back to our regularly scheduled programming.


The turn of the century wealthy were all men who made something tangible, Carnegie with steel, Vanderbilt with railroads, Henry Ford with automobiles, Hiram Walker with liquor, Edward Berwind with coal, you get the picture.

Fast forward to today where the wealthy are as Tom Wolfe aptly put it in the classic Bonfire of the Vanities "crumb chasers".

It got me to thinking of the net worth of cats like ambulance chaser and former VP candidate John Edwards net worth. Think about all the other crumb chasers of the FIRE (finance, insurance, and real estate) economy, or career politicians with 8 figure net worths, people who make absolutely nothing and have amassed immense wealth.

What I am saying simply is this, when the crumb chasers - and again no offence to Stan Druckenmiller here, his retirement simply spurred this piece -are the big kahunas in the pond there is something seriously wrong structurally with our economy.

Remember Richard Gere's character in Pretty Woman, he made nothing.

This is just my opinion as someone who by the way who has never made anything in his life other than homemade ice cream and even then needed a ton of help from his wife!

As always thanks for reading.


Good speculating to you all and please remember to never forget that "an investor is a speculator who made a mistake and will not admit it".


Open Positions:
Long 1 unit Direxion Large Cap 3X Bear ticker BGZ @ $19.34
Long 2 units Direxion Small Cap 3X Bear ticker TZA @ $60.30
Long 1 unit Direxion Emerging Mkts 3X Bear ticker EDZ @ $60.50
Long 2 units Direxion Financial 3X Bear ticker FAZ @ $19.65
Long 2 units Ultrashort Xinhua China ticker FXP @ $42.45
Long 1 unit Ultrashort Real Estate ticker SRS @ $49.10
Long 2 units Direxion Tech 3X Bear ticker TYP @ $52.60
Long 1 unit US Dollar Bull ticker UUP @ $22.52 stop @ $22.52
Long 1 unit ishares Barclays 20yr Treas ticker TLT @ 92.15 stop @ $92.15
Long 1 unit ishares Barclays 20yr Treas ticker TLT @ 93.48 stop @ $93.48
Short 1 unit Apple ticker AAPL @ $275.20 stop @ $266.50

Tuesday, August 17, 2010

Kyle Bass Interview on CNBC

By pure luck I happened to catch Kyle Bass on CNBC today. For those out of the loop Kyle was spot on with his housing market implosion call. He made few friends with his outstanding call which is to be expected on Wall St. because there you are either bullish or you are persona non grata. Kyle is a big picture, clear thinker as this video most definitely illustrates.

I have attempted to download the video and have been unsuccessful so I have enclosed the appropriate links below which if you click will take your directly to the videos.


While watching please try ignore the self aggrandizing lightweight host in the video. Readers know my thoughts on the self proclaimed "brain" and after watching the video you will surely know that the words Faber and brain are truly an oxy moron.

But don't take my word for it, watch the short videos below then tell me who is the brain, (hint... it's the guy on the far right) and who resembles the scarecrow from the Wizard of Oz.
This is a top ten video of the year for sure.


Kyle Bass on CNBC Part 1

Kyle Bass on CNBC Part 2




Good speculating to you all and please remember to never forget that "an investor is a speculator who made a mistake and will not admit it".


Open Positions:
Long 1 unit Direxion Large Cap 3X Bear ticker BGZ @ $19.34
Long 2 units Direxion Small Cap 3X Bear ticker TZA @ $60.30
Long 1 unit Direxion Emerging Mkts 3X Bear ticker EDZ @ $60.50
Long 2 units Direxion Financial 3X Bear ticker FAZ @ $19.65
Long 2 units Ultrashort Xinhua China ticker FXP @ $42.45
Long 1 unit Ultrashort Real Estate ticker SRS @ $49.10
Long 2 units Direxion Tech 3X Bear ticker TYP @ $52.60
Long 1 unit US Dollar Bull ticker UUP @ $22.52 stop @ $22.52
Long 1 unit ishares Barclays 20yr Treas ticker TLT @ 92.15 stop @ $92.15
Long 1 unit ishares Barclays 20yr Treas ticker TLT @ 93.48 stop @ $93.48
Short 1 unit Apple ticker AAPL @ $275.20 stop @ $266.50

Monday, August 16, 2010

Couple of Items

Bonds versus Stocks

Are you catching the boobs and boobs (shills) in chairs on CNBC this morning? Is it me or is it the order of the day trying to pooh pooh the move in bonds? Do you also see them trying to talk you out of those paltry yields - nominal mind you as they never discuss real rates - in bonds and get you to move into stocks?

Do yourself a huge favor and ignore them. They know not what they speak of because their bread is buttered by an upward moving stock market. This and the fact they would sell their mothers and sisters into sex slavery for a 7 figure bonus is all you need to know about them. Govern yourself accordingly.

High Frequency Trading and Goldman

For those of you who continue to think Goldman are everywhere and always the smartest guys in the room. I bring you back to the high frequency trading (HFT) issue.

You can, like the legions of retail brokers whose survival depends on positive markets ignore this, or like the shills on CNBC prefer to simply dismiss it as unimportant and non-existent I urge you to reconsider.

This issue HUGELY important. Don't bother asking your broker about it because if he is anything like the handful I have broached the subject with locally he/she likely has a better idea of how to split atoms than grasp this issue.

If you still don't think so ask yourself why this "Goldman's Prop Desk Spin Off Hits A Wall: Bank Won't Let New Fund Take Code With It." , going on.

Ahhh, just tune in to CNBC and let them tell you it was a 'fat finger' trade again or heaven forbid it was carnys. Yes carnys or carnival workers on the loose reeking havoc with shirts that say "shit happens". Would you expect anything less from the boobs and boobs on CNBC? Of course not.

And speaking of CNBC....
over the weekend I caught a small inconsequential piece on ponzi magnate Allan Stanford, eerrr excuse I meant to say SIR Allan Stanford and it made me think of future financial TV hall of famer Carl Quintanilla. In particular his infamous, well thought out in advance, penetrating question to the former financier and now felon "What's it like to be a billionaire?" When I first mentioned this here ridiculing Quintanilla many thought I was jesting, engaging in hyperbole, until I linked the actual interview via YouTube. Anyway after reading the piece it made me want to ask Carl the question we all want to know now....."what's it like to be a complete nincompoop?"

Strayer Education

Did you catch the announcement this morning regarding Strayer Education, ticker STRA?

"Strayer Education, Inc. disclosed in a regulatory filing that the U.S. Department of Education's data and analysis released related to Strayer University are at odds with its internal analysis conducted in light of the guidance issued by the Department.

On August 13, 2010, the Department of Education released loan repayment rate data in connection with gainful employment Notice of Proposed Rulemaking.

The Arlington, Virginia-based company said it is seeking to clarify the discrepancy, which has significant operational, financial, and public policy implications."


To quote Ricky Ricardo of I love Lucy Fame ..... "Lucy, you got some 'splaining to do !!"

Of course when the dust settles no one will be held accountable anywhere anyhow, a miniscule fine will be paid with Strayer neither admitting nor denying wrongdoing and of course the management team, in particular the CEO, walking away with 7-8 figure severance packages.
I absolutely adore free market capitalism. Heads I win, tails someone else loses. Without question yet another compelling reason to be long stocks, right?


Miscellaneous

I caught a small inconsequential piece on Allan Stanford, eerrr excuse I meant to say SIR Allan Stanford and it made me think of future financial TV hall of famer Carl Quintanilla's infamous penetrating question "What's it like to be a billionaire?" When I first mentioned this piece many thought I was jesting, engaging in hyperbole until I linked the actual interview via YouTube. Anyway after reading the piece it made me want to ask Carl the question we all want to know, "What's it like to be nincompoop?"



Good speculating to you all and please remember to never forget that "an investor is a speculator who made a mistake and will not admit it".


Open Positions:
Long 1 unit Direxion Large Cap 3X Bear ticker BGZ @ $19.34
Long 2 units Direxion Small Cap 3X Bear ticker TZA @ $60.30
Long 1 unit Direxion Emerging Mkts 3X Bear ticker EDZ @ $60.50
Long 2 units Direxion Financial 3X Bear ticker FAZ @ $19.65
Long 2 units Ultrashort Xinhua China ticker FXP @ $42.45
Long 1 unit Ultrashort Real Estate ticker SRS @ $49.10
Long 2 units Direxion Tech 3X Bear ticker TYP @ $52.60
Long 1 unit US Dollar Bull ticker UUP @ $22.52 stop @ $22.52
Long 1 unit ishares Barclays 20yr Treas ticker TLT @ 92.15 stop @ $92.15
Long 1 unit ishares Barclays 20yr Treas ticker TLT @ 93.48 stop @ $93.48
Short 1 unit Apple ticker AAPL @ $275.20 stop @ $266.50

Houston, We Have Lift Off !



Good speculating to you all and please remember to never forget that "an investor is a speculator who made a mistake and will not admit it".


Open Positions:
Long 1 unit Direxion Large Cap 3X Bear ticker BGZ @ $19.34
Long 2 units Direxion Small Cap 3X Bear ticker TZA @ $60.30
Long 1 unit Direxion Emerging Mkts 3X Bear ticker EDZ @ $60.50
Long 2 units Direxion Financial 3X Bear ticker FAZ @ $19.65
Long 2 units Ultrashort Xinhua China ticker FXP @ $42.45
Long 1 unit Ultrashort Real Estate ticker SRS @ $49.10
Long 2 units Direxion Tech 3X Bear ticker TYP @ $52.60
Long 1 unit US Dollar Bull ticker UUP @ $22.52 stop @ $22.52
Long 1 unit ishares Barclays 20yr Treas ticker TLT @ 92.15 stop @ $92.15
Long 1 unit ishares Barclays 20yr Treas ticker TLT @ 93.48 stop @ $93.48
Short 1 unit Apple ticker AAPL @ $275.20 stop @ $266.50

Friday, August 13, 2010

Houston, We Have Ignition !


Good speculating to you all and please remember to never forget that "an investor is a speculator who made a mistake and will not admit it".


Open Positions:
Long 1 unit Direxion Large Cap 3X Bear ticker BGZ @ $19.34
Long 2 units Direxion Small Cap 3X Bear ticker TZA @ $60.30
Long 1 unit Direxion Emerging Mkts 3X Bear ticker EDZ @ $60.50
Long 2 units Direxion Financial 3X Bear ticker FAZ @ $19.65
Long 2 units Ultrashort Xinhua China ticker FXP @ $42.45
Long 1 unit Ultrashort Real Estate ticker SRS @ $49.10
Long 2 units Direxion Tech 3X Bear ticker TYP @ $52.60
Long 1 unit US Dollar Bull ticker UUP @ $22.52 stop @ $22.52
Long 1 unit ishares Barclays 20yr Treas ticker TLT @ 92.15 stop @ $92.15
Long 1 unit ishares Barclays 20yr Treas ticker TLT @ 93.48 stop @ $93.48
Short 1 unit Apple ticker AAPL @ $275.20 stop @ $266.50

Thursday, August 12, 2010

The Bonds Again?

Yes readers, yet another look at the bonds via the TLT's, daily view below. Please pay attention to what they are saying. Hint, its not good for stocks no matter what the boobs and boobs on CNBC tell you!

Lord help us all if the bonds were to collapse as it would most surely make the 1930's look extraordinarily docile to put it mildly.


Good speculating to you all and please remember to never forget that "an investor is a speculator who made a mistake and will not admit it".


Open Positions:
Long 1 unit Direxion Large Cap 3X Bear ticker BGZ @ $19.34
Long 2 units Direxion Small Cap 3X Bear ticker TZA @ $60.30
Long 1 unit Direxion Emerging Mkts 3X Bear ticker EDZ @ $60.50
Long 2 units Direxion Financial 3X Bear ticker FAZ @ $19.65
Long 2 units Ultrashort Xinhua China ticker FXP @ $42.45
Long 1 unit Ultrashort Real Estate ticker SRS @ $49.10
Long 2 units Direxion Tech 3X Bear ticker TYP @ $52.60
Long 1 unit US Dollar Bull ticker UUP @ $22.52 stop @ $22.52
Long 1 unit ishares Barclays 20yr Treas ticker TLT @ 92.15 stop @ $92.15
Long 1 unit ishares Barclays 20yr Treas ticker TLT @ 93.48 stop @ $93.48
Short 1 unit Apple ticker AAPL @ $275.20 stop @ $266.50

Things are Getting Better.... Aren't They?

I have had some in-laws visiting form out of town, Oklahoma City, so I have been away from my desk and unable to post. What I have had a chance to do is catch my first Tiger game of the year attending the Tigers Rays afternoon game yesterday. How can you not like that Brennan Boesch! 6'4", 235 and while everyone likes his bat, made a heck of a shoestring catch in right field late, that if missed was most likely an in the park homer.

Okay, okay the markets. Things are getting better so what's wrong with the market. Boobs and boobs on CNBC in panic mode with the Dow down a couple hundred, what's wrong with stocks? Market's cheap right? Things are getting much better.... aren't they?
  • Jobless claims up.
  • Repossessions up
  • Bankruptcies up
  • Equity fund outflows up
  • $26 billion in aid for broke state governments compliments of a broke federal government.
  • Quantitative Easing Part 2, yup paying the Amex card with the the Visa card, something only an equity trader could love. Oh, and a CNBC anchor or guest pundit.
  • Cisco earnings up 18% yet receivables up from 27 days to 41? Are you kidding me? This on the heels of "excellent visibility" statements last quarter. Hey, don't look over there buddy, look over here. Oh and by the way Cisco is a screaming buy! Right Wall St.?
  • Equity market volume surges on down days and trickles in on up days.
  • Should I even mention the bonds, yet again, for what the hundredth time? Bonds continue to tell a much different story than stocks.
It is all just way too funny for me if it all were not such a big scam. I just hope many out there have stopped drinking this recovery kool-aid CNBC is selling? If so I wish you well and don't forget you have no one but yourself to blame. But even then, if you still refuse to, you can turn on the propaganda network and be assured, Larry Summers, Tim Geithner and crew will come on with Maria to tell you absolutely no one saw this coming.


Good speculating to you all and please remember to never forget that "an investor is a speculator who made a mistake and will not admit it".


Open Positions:
Long 1 unit Direxion Large Cap 3X Bear ticker BGZ @ $19.34
Long 2 units Direxion Small Cap 3X Bear ticker TZA @ $60.30
Long 1 unit Direxion Emerging Mkts 3X Bear ticker EDZ @ $60.50
Long 2 units Direxion Financial 3X Bear ticker FAZ @ $19.65
Long 2 units Ultrashort Xinhua China ticker FXP @ $42.45
Long 1 unit Ultrashort Real Estate ticker SRS @ $49.10
Long 2 units Direxion Tech 3X Bear ticker TYP @ $52.60
Long 1 unit US Dollar Bull ticker UUP @ $22.52 stop @ $22.52
Long 1 unit ishares Barclays 20yr Treas ticker TLT @ 92.15 stop @ $92.15
Long 1 unit ishares Barclays 20yr Treas ticker TLT @ 93.48 stop @ $93.48
Short 1 unit Apple ticker AAPL @ $275.20 stop @ $266.50

Friday, August 6, 2010

Luna Innovations - LUNA

Interesting pattern developing on Luna Innovations, ticker LUNA. A weekly view of LUNA (below).

Now a daily view of LUNA (below).



Good speculating to you all and please remember to never forget that "an investor is a speculator who made a mistake and will not admit it".


Open Positions:
Long 1 unit Direxion Large Cap 3X Bear ticker BGZ @ $19.34
Long 2 units Direxion Small Cap 3X Bear ticker TZA @ $60.30
Long 1 unit Direxion Emerging Mkts 3X Bear ticker EDZ @ $60.50
Long 2 units Direxion Financial 3X Bear ticker FAZ @ $19.65
Long 2 units Ultrashort Xinhua China ticker FXP @ $42.45
Long 1 unit Ultrashort Real Estate ticker SRS @ $49.10
Long 2 units Direxion Tech 3X Bear ticker TYP @ $52.60
Long 1 unit US Dollar Bull ticker UUP @ $22.52 stop @ $22.52
Long 1 unit ishares Barclays 20yr Treas ticker TLT @ 92.15 stop @ $92.15
Long 1 unit ishares Barclays 20yr Treas ticker TLT @ 93.48 stop @ $93.48
Short 1 unit Apple ticker AAPL @ $275.20 stop @ $266.50

Tuesday, August 3, 2010

Weddings and Papers

Clinton Wedding

It is with apathy and disgust that I read over the weekend about the glorious Clinton wedding. You are having this opulent wedding for your daughter, in this economic climate yet you dragged your feet paying your outstanding campaign debts? Who knows if they have even been repaid in full.

What is wrong with this picture. Wait.... I get it. Thats how they run government so why should their personal affairs be any different. Keep hitting up those Hollywood campaign donors Hillary. Plenty of free money there, well it's not exactly free as you do have to grovel for it.

Shameless is the word that comes to mind, but then again, I can be a harsh critic. Rather than listen to me go on about this have a read over former Asst Secretary of the US Treasury Paul Craig Roberts piece on the subject aptly entitled "Let Them Eat Cake".

It is a short read. Read it, and see if the word parasite, doesn't keep coming to mind... over and over again.

Immigration

The whole situation is something I have refrained from commenting on til now. I am a legal immigrant, or to be more politically correct, a documented person in this country, from Canada to be exact. I can attest to the paperwork and legwork necessary to accomplish this feat. It was a rigorous, time consuming process which involved financials, medicals alongside other documented evidence.

Why is checking some one's legal status here offensive.

Why is it considered draconian or an issue even at all for you to be required to provide documentation that you are legally here? I am proud to be here but I can tell you this I in no way feel discriminated or offending if as and when someone asks for my ID, which by the way, I carry with me at ALL times.

I need somebody to explain a few things to this simpleton.

First up, why is not having ID on your person not an offence?

I am not advocating more useless laws but having ID on your person should be mandatory for anyone with half a brain.
Maybe it is because I grew up as a child being advised to EVERYWHERE and ALWAYS have identification on my person. No ifs, ands or buts about it!

Secondly, why is the health aspect issue of illegal immigration not front and center in this debate?

My memory is not so good but I believe all immigrants to the U.S. at the turn of the century were given a physical upon arrival. Why are we not doing this?

Reflecting upon this entire mess it seem to me that many of these highly educated, so-called smart people in positions of leadership are not so smart at all. Either that or they know that which they do to further their own interests.

Japanese Yen

You watching the Yen today. Things could start getting interesting.

Housekeeping Notes:

Yesterday I was stopped out of my GLL position at $41.19 for basically a flat trade.


Good speculating to you all and please remember to never forget that "an investor is a speculator who made a mistake and will not admit it".


Open Positions:
Long 1 unit Direxion Large Cap 3X Bear ticker BGZ @ $19.34
Long 2 units Direxion Small Cap 3X Bear ticker TZA @ $60.30
Long 1 unit Direxion Emerging Mkts 3X Bear ticker EDZ @ $60.50
Long 2 units Direxion Financial 3X Bear ticker FAZ @ $19.65
Long 2 units Ultrashort Xinhua China ticker FXP @ $42.45
Long 1 unit Ultrashort Real Estate ticker SRS @ $49.10
Long 2 units Direxion Tech 3X Bear ticker TYP @ $10.52
Long 1 unit US Dollar Bull ticker UUP @ $22.52 stop @ $22.52
Long 1 unit ishares Barclays 20yr Treas ticker TLT @ 92.15 stop @ $92.15
Long 1 unit ishares Barclays 20yr Treas ticker TLT @ 93.48 stop @ $93.48
Short 1 unit Apple ticker AAPL @ $275.20 stop @ $266.50