Wednesday, June 15, 2011

Charades

I get lots of interesting email from people. I appreciate it all, both good and bad. I usually respond privately but sometimes I think it helpful to share the odd one publicly. Yesterday I received an interesting email from a reader LC who wrote:

"Hey what gives? Your posting frequency is down. Depressed? Bummed out over ur losses ? LOL Dow 15k baby $$ !!"

I assume by the dollar signs he/she is making mucho money in this market and for that I am happy for them. Really, I am! As for being bummed out, am I bummed out about the fact I;
  • don't own AAPL off the lows
  • don't own LNKD
  • don't own GMCR
  • don't own PCLN
  • don't own CRM
Yes I was not smart enough to catch any of these nor was I smart enough to have developed an extensive 'expert network' which could have tipped me off to it, which I could have then parlayed into investment and capital markets acumen via a hedge fund. Then again in the tech bubble I was also not smart enough own:
  • INKT,
  • MSFT
  • CSCO,
Nor did I own Nortel (who'd a thunk I had the gall to short it) or any of the other litany of Wall St. concocted pieces of shit that temporarily astute simpletons raved about.

I was not smart enough to own the likes of CFC, GDW(golden west), RDN, RYL or any of the other names the Greenspan sired housing bubble spawned. Yes I know many others were smart enough to catch RDN single digits and ride it up and get out north of 60. Just as I know these same genius' skin Steve Wynn alive when they visit his many casinos. How else could Mr. Wynn be able to build those sumptuous, grand hotels and live so comfortably? Of course by losing all the time to these perpetual winners.

Time for a quick story.

This takes me back to my BMO Nesbitt Burns training school days. Daily we would have higher ups come in for guest visits to tutor us developing youngins'. One day we had one Chairmans club, million dollar round table, senior VP, managing director, master of the minions type come in to address, no pontificate to our class. Besides waxing eloquently on about his book size and commission rank in the firm he would relay to us his outstanding investment acumen, his stock picking skills, and in general his overall intellectual superiority.

A couple of the institutional desk cats (1 bond and 2 equity) invited myself and a couple of others from my class out for 'pops' one night. That same visiting senior VP, managing directors name came up when they asked who was pontificating to us. They all looked at each other and started to howl at once. They explained to us that said senior VP, managing director guy would come down and troll their floor like a street mut at the back door of a restaurant looking for a handout. Regularly calling down to them pleading for any tips or investment ideas hoping for a sniff at what a pension fund or institution was buying or if they had any ideas. Too funny.

Imagine that Canali wearing market guru was nothing but an unmitigated bullshit artist. A charade. Hey he was kinda like Bank America or Wells Fargo's balance sheet, or Goldman and Morgan's trading record or like Greece being able to pay back their debt or like unemployment being 9%.

So yes, maybe I am bummed that I cannot have a loss free trading quarter like the big Wall St. banks. Yes loss free! 100% batting average. Dow gaps down and then closes down 170. Then trades flat. Then gaps up and closes up 130 to only be followed up by a gap down a day later? But in spite of this, or is it because of this the Wall St. banks can have losing day free trading quarters. What luck !! Maybe it's just me but sometimes when it looks like bullshit, sounds like bullshit, smells like bullshit IT ACTUALLY IS BULLSHIT! Imagine me, a senior fellow at the Room Temp IQ Institute coming up with that sans an Ivy league MBA. What luck!!

So as to LC's question about my posting frequency being down, when the above is going on in the market, what do you say about it other than to marvel at the fact that it goes on front and center for all to see and yet still so many out there actually believe it. Future historians will have a much better perspective on what to write about them and it.

I hereby conclude todays rant and am stepping off my soapbox.


Good speculating to you all and please remember to never forget that "an investor is a speculator who made a mistake and will not admit it".


Open Positions:
Long 1 unit Direxion Large Cap 3X Bear ticker BGZ @ $96.70
Long 2 units Direxion Small Cap 3X Bear ticker TZA @ $60.30
Long 1 unit Direxion Emerging Mkts 3X Bear ticker EDZ @ $60.50
Long 2 units Direxion Financial 3X Bear ticker FAZ @ $98.25
Long 2 units Ultrashort Xinhua China ticker FXP @ $42.45
Long 1 unit Ultrashort Real Estate ticker SRS @ $49.10
Long 2 units Direxion Tech 3X Bear ticker TYP @ $52.60

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