Monday, October 22, 2012

Virnetx Holding - $VHC

I came across Virnetx Holding, ticker $VHC,  while I was chart surfing. Quite the flag formation after a volume laden impulse move down.

As my notes indicate, a break of the lower boundary of this flag implies things that are- how do I say this diplomatically,..... -not nice.

Thursday, October 18, 2012

#Goldcorp - $GG

After quite the impulsive move up off the 32 level Goldcorp - ticker $GG - has stopped to catch its breath and is sporting quite the nice looking flag formation. We could violate the lower bound of the channel to se up a small double bottom inside the channel. Need to see that low of Oct 15 hold.

As an aside the larger double bottom off $32 with a midpoint of $41 carries a target of $50 on it. This flag if broken to the upside carries a target of, depending on breakout of $61, which if you peek at a longer term chart would make new highs. Very bullish longer term!

#CarboCeramics - $CRR

Weekly view of Carbo Ceramics ticker $CRR. Notes on the chart.

Below is a daily close up view  where it appears to be sitting on some long term support. I want to watch this very closely here. 

#FirstMajesticSilver - $AG

The daily chart on First Majestic - ticker $AG - shows a really nice pennant (highlighted area)  forming here.  Coincidently, right on top of the prior reaction high at $22. Worth watching people.

Thursday, October 11, 2012

Cummins - $CMI False Sense of Security?

The weekly view of Cummins Engine ticker $CMI is shown below. Back in early 2011 we had what looked and then turned out to be a 'too good to be true' looking head and shoulders formation (shown in aquablue). The break of the neckline in August lead to quite the skirmish between bulls and bears with bulls winning out. Notice the low volume rally back in January this year. What was that about volume and validity???

Either way made a new high by about $10 bucks, attracted all the momo hedge fund valet attendants most of which know as much about risk management on YOUR money as they do about the ecosystem in the Republic of Congo. The stock looks to have rolled over with one last gasp forming a possible right shoulder of a NEW head and shoulders formation. So now having disappointed folks once will this new formation lull stockholders into a false sense of security??

The late 2009 consolidation around $45 looks like the target if the neckline and more importantly, the reaction lows of 2011 are broken.

#Caterpillar - $CAT Time to Say Good Night Irene?

Quite the chart Caterpillar ticker $CAT, is sporting. The weekly view below shows couple of things. An interesting looking double top, a very tired looking 13/34 week moving average scene and last but not least the breakdown from a recent bear flag.

The break of the bear flag brings in a target of $50.
A break of the double top low of roughly $65 brings in a target of ..... ummm, uhhh, $15.

Remember now this is a weekly chart! Time will tell. The CAT bulls will consider this talk heresy but come to think of it the Nortel bulls thought the same way years ago. Of course this time, live every other, is always different.

Thursday, October 4, 2012

A Look at Apple - $AAPL

I took a moment to take a look at every Ivy League educated money managers favourite "must own" stock Apple - ticker $AAPL. Remember now, this is cheap and gold is the one in the bubble!

Or as one Wall St. uber-genius once proclaimed.  “As long as the music is playing, you’ve got to get up and dance,”.  Why yes you do, especially when (A) it's not your money and (B) your bonus depends on it. 

It will be funny, yet again, to see all the "genius's" managing OPM fighting for chairs when the music stops playing.

Don't Forget About Me - Silver Wheaton- $SLW

With all due apologies to the Simple Minds. Silver Wheaton $SLW a weekly view below. For what its worth, $40.50 looks to be a reliable trigger.

An Old Dear Friend - Agnico Eagle - $AEM

Been watching an old dear friend from tech bubble of late. That old friend is none other than Agnico "you made em' all eat crow" Eagle, ticker $AEM, which looks poised for liftoff. The "you made em' all eat crow" comment comes from buying Agnico back in 1996 thru 1999 for clients in my former life as a broker. These buys were made when the 'all you could eat Gold buffet' was open yet barren of patrons. Sadly many were busy fighting over the much preferred regular fare menu of JDSU, NT, MSFT, INTC  etc. and proceeded to take their appetite and their business elsewhere amidst many a derogatory comment to my pal Agnico. C'est la vie! Needless to say back to reality.

Nice rounding bottom as slowly the 50 has crossed the 200day and now the 200 is turning upwards. The stock poked its nose thru an almost 2 yr downtrend line recently only to back off. rejection off the downtrend line occurs coincidentally right near the top of a large outstanding gap, which we have now filled, from late summer/fall of 2011.

A convincing move up thru 53.25-50 on volume here would seem to do the trick and be your cue to buy a ticket on this train!

Wednesday, October 3, 2012

A Look at Natural Gas $UNG - Chart

Been watching the chart of Natural Gas which you can easily follow via $UNG. Daily view below.

The last 4 years have been a relentless march lower. The action since late April has drawn my attention. We have formed a series of higher highs and higher lows. Just a few days ago the 50 day MA crossed over the 200 day to theupside. For some perspective the 50 has been buried under the 200 since 09/09/08 !  For those interested in longer term stuff the 13 week MA has crossed over the 34 week MA.

Couple of things could happen here. We could back and fill and retest the new upward trendline around 19 or the MA's or we could take out the Aug high along with the recent high at 23 which would be very bullish.

Things could get very interesting here for the patient among us.