Thursday, October 11, 2012

Cummins - $CMI False Sense of Security?

The weekly view of Cummins Engine ticker $CMI is shown below. Back in early 2011 we had what looked and then turned out to be a 'too good to be true' looking head and shoulders formation (shown in aquablue). The break of the neckline in August lead to quite the skirmish between bulls and bears with bulls winning out. Notice the low volume rally back in January this year. What was that about volume and validity???

Either way made a new high by about $10 bucks, attracted all the momo hedge fund valet attendants most of which know as much about risk management on YOUR money as they do about the ecosystem in the Republic of Congo. The stock looks to have rolled over with one last gasp forming a possible right shoulder of a NEW head and shoulders formation. So now having disappointed folks once will this new formation lull stockholders into a false sense of security??

The late 2009 consolidation around $45 looks like the target if the neckline and more importantly, the reaction lows of 2011 are broken.

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